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November 15, 2005

Dark Clouds? Yes. The Perfect Storm? Probably Not.

By Jim Dallas

Kenneth Baer puts in words a concern I've been having recently, to wit, that while 2006 will be a bad year for our erstwhile friends-across-the-aisle, it is silly to predict that recent generic-ballot polls could translate into huge Democratic majorities in Congress:

But if Democrats want to win, they should stop fetishizing the 1994 Republican takeover. It resulted from a once-in-a-lifetime convergence of institutional changes, historical trends, and some blind luck. With the ground less fertile in 2006, a new Contract with America containing simple, poll-tested nostrums won't be enough (and, in fact, most studies show that the 1994 Contract contributed little to the GOP win). What's needed is a coherent agenda, built around deeply held principles, that speaks to the challenges Americans face today: Islamo-fascist terrorism, a global and interdependent economy, underperforming schools, an inefficient and increasingly ineffective health care system, and a looming fiscal crisis. Put answers to these problems in a contract, and voters will readily sign.

Aside from the hyperbolic use of "Islamo-fascist terrorism", which all the kewl kids at The New Republic are apparently required to use at least three times a day (moreover, shouldn't Democrats have a plan dealing with other, non-militant-Islamic terrorism?), I would have said exactly the same thing.

The biggest reason is that the Republican takeover in 1994 hinged largely on a whole lot of seats changing hands in the South. I can't think of any area of the country so obviously prone for re-alignment. Winning back Congress will, almost necessarily, involve beating Republicans in Republican districts.

Posted by Jim Dallas at November 15, 2005 12:33 PM | TrackBack

Comments

Islamo-fascist terrorism has a nice ring to it, doesn't it? A nice racist ring. Reflects the Bush Administration's, and the Republican Party's, belief that the best way to build bridges is to just simply blow them up.

I suppose Caucaso-fascist terrorism is acceptable?

Posted by: Baby Snooks at November 15, 2005 01:33 PM

shouldn't Democrats have a plan dealing with other, non-militant-Islamic terrorism?

Perhaps, except that "non-militant-Islamic terrorism" happens to also be "non-existent"...but maybe plans for that sort of thing is where the Dems excel?

Posted by: x at November 15, 2005 01:58 PM

Thanks for the posting on this. There is a LOT of work ahead. We can't just mail it in.

That being said, we COULD repeat COULD have some massive regional gains like 94 in the Northeast and MidAtlantic States.

But unfortunately, That only translates into 15 or so Congressional Seats.

We're going to have to fight everywhere next year guys.

Posted by: Tom in Utrecht at November 15, 2005 02:08 PM

How can terrorism be non-militant? And why is terrorism now associated with Islam? Because our fearless leader, King George, has said it is so?

For Democrats to buy into that is just an indication of how pervasive his lies have been on the American psyche.

The Democrats need to accept that the Rovian way is to terrorize everyone. By convincing people of threats that don't exist (while ignoring the ones that do) and by convincing people that the Republicans are our only hope. The Democrats, you know, are all wusses. We probably would have surrendered had Clinton been in office. That's the kind of dinner table conversation going on in this country.

Terrorism is terrorism. Al Queda is not Islam. Neither is Hezbollah or Hamas. As far as I'm concerned, the worst of the terrorists are in the White House and in Congress. The Republican Congress may not be willing to force the issue of the lies of this president and his administration but the Democarts should. That's how to win back a majority in Congress and in state legislatures throughout the country.

Patriotism is not blindly supporting an administration and its policies. Bipartisan concession consisting of cowering in a corner in fear of a mysterious enemy that has no real country behind it is not patriotism. Patriotism is standing up and speaking out, loudly, against policies you know are based on lies and which go against every principle this country has ever stood for.

Posted by: Baby Snooks at November 15, 2005 02:38 PM

Beware of foreign entanglements.

Posted by: George Washington at November 15, 2005 02:43 PM

Was not the good old USA founded by terrorists?

Posted by: hamiltonfan at November 15, 2005 05:59 PM

Well they were terrorists to the first King George. They were patriots to everyone else who were being taxed to death and wanted a little more democracy and a little less theocratic monarchy which brings to mind the phrase history repeats itself? Disagree with the king then and now and you are a terrorist.

And the Democrats might remember those key words of "being taxed to death" because when it comes to taxes, they are just as bad. And I am tired of hearing how the Democrats would have had a better taxation plan for school funding in this state. They need to find another way to fund it. Like taxing their buddies who don't pay the taxes like everyone else does. Read our lips. NO MORE TAXES.

And most of us really have had enough with the local "consultants" hired to find out what city council is supposed to find out on its own which is why we elected them and pay them, consultants who are usually just friends of someone needing a contract so they can earn a little money while they play golf, as well as the Alaska bridges to nowhere. Which is being put back in a funding bill this evening. No doubt the explanation this time is it will prevent terrorism in Alaska.

Time for another tea party. But this time let's dump some of the politicians instead of the tea. The Democrats and the Republicans who have forgotten what public interest is all about.

Posted by: Baby Snooks at November 15, 2005 09:03 PM

Out of the 54 seats that switched hands in 1994, 21 were in the old Confederacy, border states and Oklahoma. 19 were in the North. 18 were in the West. The 1994 wave seems to me to have been a nationwide phenomenon. But the Southern component of it was deeper and more permanent. The party-switchers after the election were almost all Southern Democrats. And the South has had a majority Republican delegation in the House ever since.

If any part of the country is due for a kind of re-alignment, it's the Midwest. Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania all have majority Republican delegations and a handful of contested seats this cycle. But I doubt it will have the permanence of the 1994 Southern realignment. Anyway, there are too few competetive seats in the House for 2006 to be a true realignment election there. It'll be interesting to watch what happens to governors and state legislatures around the country though.

Posted by: abramcf at November 15, 2005 09:37 PM

"Winning back Congress will, almost necessarily, involve beating Republicans in Republican districts."

Not bloody likely. Better just stick to beating off.

Posted by: Hollis Manly at November 15, 2005 10:05 PM

"We're going to have to fight everywhere next year guys."

Too bad you guys can't fight your way out of a wet paper bag!

Question: What does the Dim-ocrat Party stand for? Bush-bashing will only take you so far.

Posted by: Hollis Manly at November 15, 2005 10:10 PM
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