Burnt Orange Report

Despite not having announced, John Sharp drew more interest than Chris Bell, who has announced and who has been all over the state, and the internet, and seems not to have draw much interest apart from ongoing "press releases" talking about how he is taking the state by storm. More like a cold front that just somehow fizzles out as it hits the Panhandle.

I don't put much stock in polls this early in primary campaigns, but it would be interesting to know whether this poll was taken before or after the revelation that Chris Bell spent 85% of his first six months of fundraising on political advisors? For someone with "new ideas" it would appear none of them are really his if he has to spend that much on advisors to tell him what his new ideas are. Which is, after all, why someone hires political advisors.

As for the question of what we want, which none of the political advisors ever seem to ask, we want ideas that work. Not ideas that merely make good sound bites.

Wait for it.... wait for it... Bam, there it is, the requisite "I hate Chris Bell" post from Snooks. Took more than two hours for you to post this, you're clearly slipping.

And aside from your startling revelation that Bell has spent most of his money so far on staff and advisors (the horror!!), it's a stretch even for you to honestly argue that Bell is the one who is hurt by this poll. Announced or not, John Sharp has been a fixture in statewide Dem politics for more than 20 years. For him to be polling only points ahead of someone who has never been on a statewide ballot or even run a statewide ad... let's just say that the "Sharp would wipe the floor with Bell" argument is looking a little flimsy this morning.

Well, to be fair, Sharp hasn't, you know, announced or anything, and who knows what those 54% of undecideds would do if he actually declared...

Whatever happens, however, I know we can count on Baby Snooks to be attacking Bell, sure as we got people who are assholes from El Paso (Kinky song, people, get with it). Although, BS, your comments are beginning to repeat themselves an awful lot....maybe it's time to start getting some new ideas of your own.

(P.S. -- I'll say within the hour, we'll have another post from our little Snooks. Anyone want to start a pool?)

Wouldn't Sharp have a better shot at beating Dewhurst?

True, GF, but most of the time these poll qquestions are asked in form of "If the Dem Primary were held today and the candidates were X, Y, and Z, whou would you vote for?" If that was the case here, it would make the announced vs unnanounced factor less relevant. At the very least, it seems to shoot holes in the idea that the rank and file are on their knees begging for John Sharp to jump in.

And sure, I'll put 5 bucks on the "under" if you're starting a pool...

It's hard to deny the serious problem for Chris Bell in this - months of active campaigning, and he's still at least 6 points behind an unannounced candidate in his own primary. Not a good sign for his ability to either beat John Sharp (if he runs) or compete against Rick Perry in November. No beef with Bell, I'm just saying...

I don't recall saying Chris Bell or anyone else is hurt by the poll. Or any poll. Particularly, again, by a poll this early in a primary campaign. The only one who apparently came out well in the poll is the one who has already dropped out of the race. Kay Bailey Hutchison.

As for the revelation about the money spent on political advisors, that was a revelation made by Karl-Thomas Musselman. Not me. Maybe you should read BOR more often, and more completely, rather than just lurk about waiting for me to post something. It definitely would help if you read what I posted in response to.

I have noticed something curious about the Bell supporters in that they claim on the one hand that his strong point is that he filed this famous, or infamous, ethics complaint against Tom DeLay, which garnered him quite a bit of "name recognition" not only in Texas but across the country, and then they claim that his weak point is that he hasn't been "out there" enough and doesn't have enough "name recognition" yet to garner statewide support, mainly because he hasn't held statewide office before. That doesn't seem to be a problem for others who have been elected to state office in the past. None of whom garnered the name recognition that Bell garnered for himself. So which is it?

Seems to me that there is a lot of "whatever sounds good at the moment" going on here. Reality is most people in Texas know who Chris Bell is. He's the former city councilmember from Houston who was elected to Congress and who then lost his seat in a redistricted district and who then filed an ethics complaint against Tom DeLay. Pretty hard not to know who he is. And yet despite that, only 10% indicated any real interest in him as a candidate for governor. Says more than your usual attacks on poor little old Baby Snooks.

"Well, to be fair, Sharp hasn't, you know, announced or anything, and who knows what those 54% of undecideds would do if he actually declared..."

Unless John Sharp has a strong platform with real ideas instead of cute one-liners and attention- grabbing sound bites, some of them still might not vote in the primary and might instead sign the petition to put Kinky Friedman on the ballot.

Many of the expected opponents to Bell, however, have not announced. Which raises a question of why they haven't. Perhaps some indeed might be wary of the "beware Bell opponents" underpinning of the Bell campaign, as it was put right here on BOR, and might not want to deal with his usual nastiness and his usual "ethical" way of conducting a campaign. Fear perhaps, the indication of the "beware Bell opponents" warning, of having an ethics complaint filed against them as well. Again, Bell was called on the carpet as well for his inclusion of innuendo in violation of the very House rules he was claiming DeLay had violated. Nancy Pelosi of course feels, and stated as such, that ethics violations by Democrats aren't as serious somehow as ethics violations by Republicans. The only thing worse to me at the moment than a sleazy Republican is a sleazy Democrat. And claiming Democrats should be allowed to violate House rules while Republicans shouldn't is pretty sleazy if you ask me. You want to know why there is so much voter apathy in this country? Comments like Nancy Pelosi's.

I don't hate Chris Bell. But apparently some hate Tom DeLay enough that they blind themselves to the reality of Chris Bell and his record in public office.

The implication of the "beware Bell opponents" is that anyone who opposes him in the primary better "watch out." The implication is that he plays dirty. Some of us already know that. Which is why we would never support him for dog catcher. If that makes me hate Chris Bell, then I do. I hate politicians who play dirty. If that's the only way they can win a campaign, then it doesn't say much about their ethics. Or about their potential ability to govern and, most importantly, to govern on behalf of the people.

Just in case someone missed this under "Just the Facts" here it is:

"And since everyone seems to be hot on knowing everyone else's background, Jason Stanford knows more about campaign finance reports (and the backgrounds of other candidates) than any of you ever will. Yes, the Bell team is probably paying their consultants way too much at this stage in the game but one thing they're not lacking is an intimate knowledge of opposition research. Beware Bell opponents."

Posted by gubernatorium at September 6, 2005 09:44 PM

Karl-Thomas Musselman apparently is real knowledgeable about campaign finance reports as well. And about catching people in their rather hypocritical endorsements of candidates. Such as claiming that a candidate isn't dependent upon consultants when in fact, according to their campaign finance reports, they are.

Maybe Karl-Thomas should run for governor. He seems able to stick to "just the facts."

Beware Karl-Thomas! God love him.

Oops! Beware OF Karl-Thomas, you sleazy in-through-the-back-door and into the back-room, under-the-table, double-dealing, double-talking, quid pro quo political consultants!

It's not so much Bell being behind Sharp as barely beating Felix Alvarado, who is pretty much unknown.

Stepping back from the Democrats side of the poll...Perry only has a 39% approval rating, and 65% of people disapprove of the Legislature's work.

The key, then, for Democrats across the state will be to clearly define the difference between the Legislature and the Leadership. The leadership was in charge, and they couldn't get the job done. Democrats led the way for a bipartisan majority, but the leadership refused to listen.

The leadership proposed education reforms that were overwhelmingly opposed by teachers, superintendents, and parents across the state. Democrats fought to give teachers a real pay raise, maintain local control for public schools, and put billions of new dollars into the classroom (which, as cited repeatedly by conservative voices across the state, is the first thing we need to do to fix our public schools).

The leadership proposed a tax hike that would have raised taxes on 9 out of every 10 people in Texas. Democrats proposed to triple the homestead exemption for all Texans, bringing real property tax relief to all Texas homeowners.

One more free message for the day, then I'm off to lunch: We can't continue to accept failing ideas from a failed leadership. For all the folks reading this...rewrite that, and repeat it.

Repeat, repeat, repeat....and maybe we can replace the leadership with folks that want to actually work for the people of Texas.

also on the Republican side of the poll...

I thought I had heard not too long ago of another Republican interested in the Guv's race? Not a big name but someone who could take up space on the ballot and maybe help to send the race into a runoff, make things a little more interesting.

anyone...?

No kidding the Alvarado campaign would be pleased, it hasn't spent much of anything or gotten any attention and it's only 2% points behind an 8 month long campaigning candidate who's spent close to a fifth of a million dollars by now.

The poll was conducted with ordinary citizens, not among likely voters. If it were conducted among the people that I have talked to, all likely voters, Strayhorn and Bell wouldn't have a chance.

Does anyone know where I would go to look at the raw data and methodology of the poll?