Burnt Orange Report

What's worse for Gallup is that the error isn't just their LV model (which, the more I think about it, the more I hate it).

Their RV numbers are way off (albeit slightly so). Most likely because they are fundamentally oversampling Republicans and their leaners.

Why? I have no earthly idea why they seem to consistently come to such an awfully pro-GOP bias.

(Although I suspect part of the problem might be the Rosh Hashannah "fake Bush bounce" that Rasmussen also shows. Kind of bad when one of the major parties' key constituencies isn't around to get polled.)

The Bush-Gore 2000 polls and the US Senate 2002 polls are just two reasons I don't take polls too seriously.
In 2000, one poll had Gore just a few points ahead in Illinois. The final vote percentages were: Gore 55%, Bush 43%, others 2%.

Isn't it funny that Foxnews last poll had a 2 point race for our President and CNN has it at 13?

Sounds like Foxnews has a lot of new fans at this site. Many new conservatives here?

No wonder Fox blew away the other networks for convention coverage.

So Byron, you saying that ALGORE was not that good a campaigner to make up that difference in one week. America didn't move towards the Democrats that much in the final week.

Lets see Democrats made advances in the House and Senate, but not the Presidency after the 'greatest' economy we've ever known, brought to us by the 'greatest' President we've ever had. So ALGORE wasn't up to that challenge?

The final poll in 2000 from Gallup had Bush up by 2LV and behind by 1RV.

What about all those other polls? They also wrong?
NY, IL, CA, NJ, WI, OH, PA, IA, MN, FL all show movement toward our President.

Kerry needs to stop playing checkers and start playing chess.

Looking in that rear view mirror again, having to look hard to see ya.

Right or wrong, that poll is damn scary.

NY, IL, CA, NJ, WI, OH, PA, IA, MN, FL all show movement toward our President.

The only movement YOUR president will get from the State of Illinois on November 2nd is a kick in the balls. haha

I guess Tim Z. does not live in our United States, Maybe he's from Canada, Quebec?

For Illinois, a SurveyUSA poll has it at 49-45 for Senator Kerry released 9/15.

Leave it to Tim Z. to leave civility behind.

Greg its only scary if your on the wrong side of it.

For anybody who doesn't know, I was born in Illinois and have never spent more than a few days at a time outside of the state.
And for anybody who intentionally overlooked my comment above, here it is once more:
The Bush-Gore 2000 polls and the US Senate 2002 polls are just two reasons I don't take polls too seriously.

I know my state better than "peter" (some fundamentalist blue stater?) or some third tier polling organization.

Talk about civility, not only do Republicans try to associate their opponents with the French, they are now adding the French Canadians. What accounts for this GOP ethnic hatred?

Not only will Illinois kick Dubya in the balls on election night, but we'll make him like it too!
:P

So a poll saying Obama is going to win is junk. I don't think so. Trends are indicated with the SurveyUSA poll. And hey I lived in Downers Grove for more than a few days. Blue state? No way like most southerners, we felt soo uncomfortable up north we imigrated to the south. Look at where all the growth is. Florida had 10 electorial votes, now 27. Texas had 24, now 34. Now don't get me wrong, I love Chicago.

Tell me Tim, how on earth did Fitzgerald get elected? Didn't you vote? How did Ryan get elected? You vote? With so many Republicans leaving your state, there should be no way for one to get elected. Unless...

Your party is losing its National appeal. Republicans aren't.

Texas had 74 Republicans total in 1974, now 1966 elected to state office's(2002).

Dems lead 51% to 21% Nationally in registration in 1977, now its 30 to 31. Dems had 68 Senators and 295 House members in the 80th Congress(1965). Look where your at now.

You guys take soo much for granted. You forgot how to grow a party. You'al just expected to get returned to office, and get offended when you don't. Where's the hard work?

Looking back at ya.

Your party is losing its National appeal. Republicans aren't.

Yeah, Peter. It's called civil rights. When Democrats embraced the Civil Rights movement in the 1960s, we permenently lost our status as the majority party in America, and made a closely divided America inevitable. Republicans saw their opening, and have acheived parity by dividing Americans on every racial issue of the past generation (civil rights act, voting rights act, busing, affirmative action, etc.). Sure, Democrats lost their majority, but it's something we can look back on and be proud of.

Republicans can win in Illinois only if they are moderate.
The only exception was Fitzgerald's narrow victory over Braun who suffered because of a petty office scandal and for her idiotic trips to Nigeria.
The last three GOP governors (Thompson, Edgar, and George Ryan) were all moderates who never could have won a Republican primary in Southern red state.
George Ryan effectively ended the death penalty, had the state pay for abortions for out of state teens, attended gay pride parades (though Ryan generally hates parades), and flew to Havana twice to hang out with Fidel.

Both houses of the state legislature are safely Democratic, all state constitutional officers (ecxept moderate Republican Treasurer Topinka) are Democrats, and Democrats have de facto control of the Illinois Supreme Court.
Barack Obama will clobber Alan Keyes. Every Democratic held US House seat is safe while as many as four Republican held seats are in play.

DuPage County, like suburbia in general, has been slowly trending Democratic.

Illinois' prevailing political philosophy is one of pragmatic progressivism. We reject neocon extremism, unilateralism, and fundamentalism.
Democrats are successful here because we avoid ideological food fights and put the emphasis on job performance.
The Democratic Party nationally could learn from us.

The IL GOP is shrinking. They are given to acts of desperation like importing fundamentalist wacko candidates from other blue states. This, in turn, drives even more people away from the party that Lincoln would no longer recognize.

I never miss an election. I'm even an election judge.
While I rarely attend rallies or other party events, I never leave my place without applications for voter registration.

After November 2nd, Illinois will be as blue as ever. And we'll do our best to leave the Flightsuit-in-Chief electorally as black and blue as possible.

Well Tim Z. we will just have to see, being that it is September 17th. TRends are against ya. See your NYTimes/CBS poll 50-41.

Hey Byron

Who ended the dual school systems in the south?
Nixon
Who signed affirmative action into law?
Nixon
Who desegregated our schools?
Eisenhoower
Who provided LBJ the majority of support for the Equal Rights Act of 1964?
Republicans
Who provided LBJ the majority of support for the Voter Rights Act of 1965?
Republicans
Who provided the vehicle for the naturalization of 8 million Hispanic people? New citizens
Reagan
Who was Martin Luther King protesting against at Selma, Montgomery, and Atlanta?
Southern Democrats
Who came up with the poll tax?
Southern Democrats
Who would not let African Americans attend school?
Southern Democrats
Who would not let African Americans ride a bus; drink from a fountain; use the restroom like the rest of us?
Southern Democrats
Who ordered the slaughter at Goliad? Treated Hispanic Americans as third class citizens?
Southern Democrats

Go back and read Truman Acceptance speech at the 1948 DNC. How come your message hasn't changed?
How come you did not get everything fixed when you'al held a super majority in Congress? How come you'al have enslaved the poor into dependence in government welfare? How come it took Republican leadership to finally force our President Clinton to sign welfare reform?

I long for another party willing to work across party lines. I long for a government that works together. With your party, its my way or the highway. And don't thro the Bush doctrine on foreign affairs at me here.

Who are the racist conservative southern Democrats of the 1960s today?

Republicans.

Thats the myth that Dems like to console themselves with. It makes it all better for you.

The old line..."never murder someone trying to commit suicide."

Looking back at ya.