Burnt Orange Report

The margin of error is +/- 3% so Kerry is doing the same as Gore.

I think Kerry may do better than just Dallas and Travis, but not enough to do any damage. Williamson (suburban area north of Austin) will be about 80% Bush. Bexar and many counties in the valley will go Kerry.

Panhandle and west Texas...sadly...all Bush.

West Texas will go to Bush but I would think that Kerry should show well in Houston considering Ron Paige is now in Washington and IS NOT respected in the least. That choice will not serve Bush well this round.

AHGEM! Not all of West Texas will go to Bush, El Paso should have a strong Democratic turnout! Don't forget us in the corner!

I think without Nader Travis county goes to Kerry. Dallas still goes for Bush. But it doesn't really matter but if Kerry gets in the mid 40's in Texas he'll have won the presidency easily.

Mike- No disrespect intended to El Paso! :) I'm sure Kerry will do well there too.

Tek_XX- Bush may or may not win Dallas, but I agree with you on the Kerry number. If he hits 40s in Texas, it won't matter...he'll be president.

Because everyone knows Bush will win Texas anyway, expect Republican turnout to be low. But because the anger and energy among Democrats is so high, expect Democratic turnout to be higher (Democrats, more so than Republicans, care about making symbolic gestures with their votes). It won't be enough to make any difference in the Presidential race, but I think it will be of great benefit to the Democrats regarding Congressional and state house races.

In Travis County, this will greatly help the campaigns of Kelly White in District 48 and Mark Strama in District 50. Expect both of them to win, contributing to gains in the legislature the Democrats will be making in general. (Why isn't Burnt Orange Report covering Kelly's campaign in more detail?).

2004 will be a set-up for a dramatic 2006, with the Texas Republicans more interested in fighting with each other than with the Democrats, and with a slate of strong candidates for the Democrats on the state ticket. 2006 will be our year.

Jeff is stupid.

Presidential years are high turnout years for BOTH parties. And tight elections ensure higher turnout on both sides.

Republicans drew these seats in Travis County to be Republican. There simply aren't enough Democrats in either seat. Yes, John Sharp carried these districts - with Republican votes.
No Republicans are going to vote for Strama or White (at least not enough to make a difference).

But we have a chance in the race for State District Judge. Stephen Yelonowsky is running against appointed Republican Judge Patrick Keel. This seat is very winnable as it is countywide.

Also, Democrat Richard McCain is running for Constable in Precinct 3. He is a certified peace officer and well qualified. His Republican opponent has no law enforcement experience and is only running because his brother is Terry Keel (get the picture?). The district is 50/50.

These are the winnable seats and the candidates we can elect, let's go out and help them.

A large number of the Dallas voters opted out of the Gore vote and chose Nader in 2000. Expect to see an increase as those numbers slide into the Kerry column this year. In 2000 the assumption was a vote for Gore was a wasted vote in Texas and a 3rd party getting 5% would be nice. Who could have imagined the Florida boondockle?