Burnt Orange Report

Nominating Miami-Dade County mayor Alex Penelas is our best bet to hold that seat. He could build the type of tri-racial Democratic coalition needed to win in Florida.

Be afraid...be VERY afraid...
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/state/7172257.htm

If the Dems pick up OK, IL, PA, and AK (some luck needed there) and but lose FL, GA, SC, and NC, then the US Senate remains status quo.

Problem with Penelas is that he and Rep. Peter Deutsch are a)from South Florida, as is Graham, but Graham had statewide prominence as Governor before he first ran for Senate; and b) are at one another's throats already for the entire summer-- allegedly Penelas avoided Al Gore's campaign like the plague in 2000, and Deutsch, who is from Broward County (one of the hearts of discontent about voter disenfranchisement) has been hitting him on that and for standing by while Republicans intimidated recall efforts in Miami-Dade.

Still, as long as Penelas and Deutsch don't destroy one another in the primary, and as long as Rep. Allen Boyd doesn't go with the strategy of branding them unelectable South Florida liberals (the more moderate Boyd is from the Panhandle, in a Republican-leaning congressional district that is gonna be one hell of a fight with him giving it up), they are strong candidates, as are Boyd and former Education Commissioner Betty Castor (who has been out of politics for a few years, but supposedly remains popular, and also could fit into a larger Year of the Woman Part Two given that we'll have female nominees in SC, MO, and possibly IL). On the Republican side, all four Republicans are arch-conservatives (though Klayman has been at odds with the Bush administration on several issues, particularly its penchant for secrecy-- for example, Judicial Watch was, along with environmental organizations, one of the plaintiffs in the suit to reveal what the Cheney energy task force was up to), so while it'll be a competitive race, it could shape up well in those regards.

Also, there is an outside chance of Katherine Harris jumping in-- she said this summer that she'd only consider it if Graham didn't run (whereas the other four were in no matter what). THAT would of course devolve into an all-out war, with both sides' bases fired up and frothing at the mouth, and things going right down to the wire. Of course, for that very reason, Harris could decide to sit it out and build up her profile in Congress for a while; she also has not exactly been wowing her constituents (although hers is a solidly Republican district, she only won it 54-46, and got booed at a constituents forum on prescription drugs over the summer).

Problem with Penelas is that he and Rep. Peter Deutsch are a)from South Florida, as is Graham, but Graham had statewide prominence as Governor before he first ran for Senate; and b) are at one another's throats already for the entire summer-- allegedly Penelas avoided Al Gore's campaign like the plague in 2000, and Deutsch, who is from Broward County (one of the hearts of discontent about voter disenfranchisement) has been hitting him on that and for standing by while Republicans intimidated recall efforts in Miami-Dade.

Still, as long as Penelas and Deutsch don't destroy one another in the primary, and as long as Rep. Allen Boyd doesn't go with the strategy of branding them unelectable South Florida liberals (the more moderate Boyd is from the Panhandle, in a Republican-leaning congressional district that is gonna be one hell of a fight with him giving it up), they are strong candidates, as are Boyd and former Education Commissioner Betty Castor (who has been out of politics for a few years, but supposedly remains popular, and also could fit into a larger Year of the Woman Part Two given that we'll have female nominees in SC, MO, and possibly IL). On the Republican side, all four Republicans are arch-conservatives (though Klayman has been at odds with the Bush administration on several issues, particularly its penchant for secrecy-- for example, Judicial Watch was, along with environmental organizations, one of the plaintiffs in the suit to reveal what the Cheney energy task force was up to), so while it'll be a competitive race, it could shape up well in those regards.

Also, there is an outside chance of Katherine Harris jumping in-- she said this summer that she'd only consider it if Graham didn't run (whereas the other four were in no matter what). THAT would of course devolve into an all-out war, with both sides' bases fired up and frothing at the mouth, and things going right down to the wire. Of course, for that very reason, Harris could decide to sit it out and build up her profile in Congress for a while; she also has not exactly been wowing her constituents (although hers is a solidly Republican district, she only won it 54-46, and got booed at a constituents forum on prescription drugs over the summer).

As for why Alcee Hastings can't win, and won't win the nomination, I have three phrases: "liberal African-American," "impeached federal judge" (back in 1986, for alleged bribe-taking), and "continued aura of corruption."

Sweet action! Four open Senate seats, with the possibility of a fifth if Breaux calls it quits. Alcee for the Dem. Nomination in FL! Seriously, in FL, it looks like both parties have a bunch of second tier candidates, and each parties nominee will emerge bloodied and broke from a September primary. On the whole, that probably benefits the GOP more, since the FL state GOP is a lot stronger organizationally and finacially than the Dems, and so can do more of the heavy lifting for whoever gets the nod, but it will still be a tight race, and it is way too early to call a winner.

By my count, assuming no major political winds for either party, this gives 1 GOP seat leaning Dem pickup (Illinois, though Jack Ryan could make it interesting), one GOP seat that is a Tossup with maybe an ever so slight GOP edge (Alaska), two Dem seats leaning GOP pickup (S. Carolina, and Georgia, though Georgia doesn't really count since Zell votes with us anyway), and three Dem seats that are currently swing seats (N. Carolina, Florida, and S. Dakota, assuming Thune runs). Assuming both parties split the tossups, the GOP wins up picking up two seats for the night, which would be a functional gain of one seat, since, as I said, Miller's seat is functionally Republican. GOP seats in OK, PA, and MO could become potentially competitive, and PA becomes a tossup if Toomey wins the primary (as I hope he does). Similarly, Dem seats in WA, CA, and LA could come in to play, but aren't right now.

If, on the other hand, the economy is booming (thank you Pres. Bush and the tax cuts), as it appears to be beginning to, things are looking up in Iraq, and Bush wins with something in the 54% to 57% range, as I think he will, then we probably win most of those tossups, and we probably pick up 3-5 seats. Assuming the Texas remap holds up in the courts, we should also be looking to gain over a dozen seats in the House, in the event of a solid Bush win. Anyway, that's how I see it.

Sherk

Al Gore should move to Florida and run for the Senate there.
A very hypothetical Al Gore vs. Katherine Harris race would energize voters and have almost Shakespearian overtones.