Burnt Orange Report

Dean's Race Problem

By Byron LaMasters

Well, it's not a problem, but a concern. Dean has a good record on most issues of concern to minorities. He was very outspoken against Bush's decision to oppose affirmative action at the University of Michigan. Dean's position on the war in Iraq should also help him with Black voters, the majority of whom opposed the war. Still, pc wrote the following in my comments. I tend to agree:

Dean's base is gay and lesbian voters, urban and surburban NPR liberal whites, some environmentalist.

He has no base in the african american communities in Dallas, Houston and east texas. He has little support with hispanics in south texas. No major current Democratic officeholder has endorsed him. John Kerry has Henry Cisneros, John Edwards has Rep Eddie Bernice Johnson of Dallas, Martin Frost will most likely support Gephardt for instance.

I think that Dean's biggest problem with minority voters is that he's never had to appeal to them. Joe Lieberman is known by most Black voters in America from being on the national ticket in 2000. He's also known for his participation in the Mississippi Freedom Summer in 1964. Most recently, however, Lieberman decided that appearing on FOX News was more important than attending the NAACP convention. The other contenders, Dick Gephardt, Bob Graham, John Edwards and John Kerry have represented states (districts) with a significant minority population, and are used to wooing Black and Hispanic voters. Also, Black and Hispanic voters have a tendency to support "establishment candidates" in the primaries. I'd love to learn more about why that is the case, because its proven to be true historically and currently.

The early primaries favor a candidate like Dean. Both Iowa and New Hampshire look a lot more like Vermont than the rest of the nation. Thus, Dean can win Iowa without needing any minority support. In fact, while Dick Gephardt's labor endorsements are rolling in, Dean seems to be inciting something of a revolt among rank and file union workers. At least that's what the latest Iowa numbers would suggest:

Dean's support is fairly broad-based. Among likely caucus participants he is the first choice of 36 percent of those with incomes topping $70,000, 28 percent of those with college degrees, 28 percent of those between the ages of 45 and 64, 28 percent of those from small cities, and 28 percent of men.

In competing with Gephardt and others for the support of the labor vote, a key Democratic constituency, Dean is the first choice of 29 percent of likely caucus participants from households with a union member. Gephardt, who received pivotal support from labor groups in 1988, is supported by 24 percent from union households. Kerry's share is 11 percent.

Dean's strategy will be to win or come in a close second to Gephardt in Iowa, then win New Hampshire. With those victories, Dean would become the undisputed frontrunner and primaries like South Carolina and Michigan become opportunities for Dean to appeal to Black voters (and Hispanics in Arizona). He won't be favored in either, but Dean's making the right moves so far. His National Urban League appearance was received well:

Former Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont chided the president for using the word "quota" in criticizing the University of Michigan's affirmative action program.

"The word 'quota' is a racially loaded word," Dean said. "The president played the race card."

To improve race relations, Dean said, "we need white politicians to go before white groups and talk about race. We're all in this together." Most in the audience responded with an ovation."

Howard Dean's performances at the NAACP convention and at the La Raza convention were also well received. I don't think that Howard Dean will ever be the first choice of minority voters, because he doesn't really have a record on minority issues. Fortunately, Dean isn't making the mistake of blowing off minority voters either (as Gephardt, Lieberman and Kucinich did with the NAACP). I think that in the end, Dean will be an acceptable choice to the vast majority of Black and Hispanic Democrats.

Posted by Byron LaMasters at August 4, 2003 03:34 PM | TrackBack