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May 10, 2005

Rick Perry Has New Polling Numbers!

By Andrew Dobbs

And they ain't too good. Survey USA did a "ranking the governors" poll (hat tip Political Wire), where Rick Perry languished in 38th place, with numbers that look like this:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rick Perry is doing as governor?

38% Approve
48% Disapprove
14% Not Sure

Those are some ugly numbers. You'd think he's going to lose in the primary, right? Wrong. The only group of Texans he leads in are Republicans. Among his party he gets great numbers-- 57% approve, 33% disapprove and 10% aren't sure. Those are high enough to hand him the nomination over Kay Bailey "Baby Killer" Hutchison (as I'm sure she'll come to be known) in 2006. But Democrats are against him 23-63 (and I'm sure we can convince the other 23%), Independents are against him 30-53, and "Don't Knows" are against him 19-35. The best he does against any ethnic group is 44-44 among White people. He loses big in every age group and even males are at 40 approve, 49 disapprove. When even White males are against you and you are a Republican, you are in trouble. Not enough to lose the primary, of course, but more than enough to lose the election.

Keep your hopes up everyone, and get ready for a real battle. This could be the most important election for Texas in 20 years.

Posted by Andrew Dobbs at May 10, 2005 09:42 PM | TrackBack


Well, "baby killer" it may be, but I'm still pushing "Comrade Kay" as my favorite.

Posted by: Jim D at May 11, 2005 12:10 AM

Well, like it or not, I think K.B. is the most popular politician in the state.
Just because he enjoys a 57% approval rating among republicans does not mean they would not choose Kay over him given the choice.
Sort of a case of I like you Rick, but I like Kay better.
Still, the best thing that could happen for Dems is for Perry to win the republican nomination.

Posted by: comeon at May 11, 2005 03:41 PM

Does Hutchison have any black babies amongst her adopted children? There'd be a good one to be McCained on.

Posted by: Phil at May 11, 2005 05:06 PM


KBH has never run in a Republican primary. She was booed off the stage at the 1994 TX GOP Convention. Things are better now, but the religious right controls the Texas GOP and she'll have a helluva time explaining the "nuance" of her abortion position. That will sink her ship.

Posted by: Andrew Dobbs at May 11, 2005 05:17 PM

Still, the best thing that could happen for Dems is for Perry to win the republican nomination.

Yup! And for the first time, I'm going to hold my nose and strategically vote for Perry in the republican primary. It's the best way to shephard in Bell or Sharp in the general.

Posted by: blank at May 11, 2005 07:00 PM

I realize KBH may have problems with hard core republicans (ie. those who attend the convention), but many more moderate republicans along with conservative independents may prefer her to Perry. But you may be right, and I just hope you are. Perry for governor is a near lock for Dems, presuming we manage to GOTV.

Posted by: comeon at May 12, 2005 08:44 AM

As i mentioned on Chris Bell's blog, don't forget that this 57% percent is among self-identified Republicans within this polling sample, not among likely Republican primary voters. Likely primary voters are only a subset of this broader Republican sample, a subset in which the hardline conservative wing is usually over-represented. That means that Perry's support is likely several points higher among the GOP primary pool than this 57% would indicate.

Posted by: Tim McCann at May 12, 2005 01:26 PM
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