Burnt Orange Report

January 17, 2004

What the heck is Going on in Iowa?

By Byron LaMasters

If I knew the answer, I'd be a genius. But I don't, which explains why I haven't done too much posting on the caucuses up there, despite the fact that I've been totally fascinated by the race in Iowa. I've been addicted to Google News on Iowa and I've read several dozen articles on the race everyday for the past few days (in addition to the blogs, etc.). I frankly haven't known what to say. This is one of these races where the only way to really be able to understand what's going on would be to be there in the state. A week ago everything seemed pretty clear. Howard Dean had a narrow lead over Dick Gephardt, who had a narrow lead over John Kerry who had a narrow lead over John Edwards. That's where we stood on January 8th where those candidates polled 29-25-18-8 in the KCCI poll and 25-23-15-14 in the Zogby Tracking Poll two days later. The dynamics of the race have completely changed since then. Then, the race was not one, but two races. The race between Gephardt and Dean for first and the race between Kerry and Edwards for third. Then, the buzz was about whether Gephardt would be able to consolidate the anti-Dean vote and ride it to victory. Would Kerry and Edwards all but throw in the towel to deny Dean? Or would Dean work to help Edwards secure third place. After all, a Dean-Gephardt-Edwards-Kerry (or Dean-Edwards-Gephardt-Kerry) finish is, in my opinion, the best possible scenario for Dean. Such a showing would be a knock out blow (or close to one) to both Gephardt and Kerry. Meanwhile, an Edwards finish of second or third would prop Edwards up for a strong showing in the February 3rd primaries, likely taking votes away from Dean's most feared rival - Wesley Clark. So, what now? Throw it all out the window.

I'm smart enough not to make any predictions for Iowa. Ok, I lied. I still think that a Dean-Gephardt-Kerry-Edwards finish is the most likely. But I'm much less sure of that guess than I am of my prediction that all four will be within several thousand votes, and the margins between the first and second, second and third, or third and fourth could easily be in the hundreds.

Perhaps the most interesting question, however is how has Howard Dean fallen 5-7 points and seen his lead evaporate in the same week that he scored the endorsements of Tom Harkin, Ann Richards and Carol Moseley Braun? On the surface, that would be considered one hell of a week. Beneath that, however, has been other problems. While I think that Dean's comments about Iowa four years ago hurt him, I think the most significant problem was the fact that both Dean and Gephardt were perceived as running highly negative campaigns, something that both realized today were hurting them, as both Gephardt and Dean have agreed to pull their attack ads. The Gephardt-Dean negative ads appear to have driven the undecides towards Kerry and Edwards. The endorsement of Edwards by the Des Moines Register certainly helped him as well. Still, even if Zogby is giving Kerry a 5-point lead, Dean and Gephardt have much more extensive ground opperations than the surging Edwards and Kerry do. Even more significant is Dean's support that probably hasn't been identified in traditional polling. Students that use cell phones (yeah, there's a lot of us out there) are undercounted, and Dean has heavily courted them. Of course the big question is if these young people and students will actually vote. But if they do - they'll be a sizeable force. Just look at what's happened in Johnson County:

Polk County, the state's most populous, has seen the number of people registering or switching parties in the past six months increase 10 percent over such activity four years ago. Johnson County has seen its new registrations in the last six months jump 300 percent from the same period four years ago - largely attributed to students at the University of Iowa.

Those new voters could help former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, one of the leading Democratic candidates, a U of I political scientist said.

"We've been speculating that Dean was more active in bringing new people into the process than any of the other candidates," said Peverill Squire. "That would seem to bode well for Dean."

Overall voter registration numbers are inconclusive. More than 90,000 Iowans registered to vote in the past 10 months, according to Culver's office.

The increase in voter registration is unusual at this stage, according to election observers. They say that most new registrations in a caucus year typically occur on the night of the precinct gatherings.

So what's your prediction? I'd love to hear from Karl and Jim (both of whom are in Iowa as Dean Texas Rangers) on this...

Posted by Byron LaMasters at January 17, 2004 12:21 AM | TrackBack

Comments

It'll be Dean and Gephardt battling for number one as they both have ground organizations that put everyone else to shame. The kicker is going to be that Dean will be the second choice of the vast majority of the Kucinich and Sharpton voters in Iowa, which total probably 8-9%. This, plus the fact that despite its been within the margin of error Dean still has a lead over Gep in almost all the polls means that Dean wins, Gephardt comes in second further back than we predicted.

Kerry has the next best organization but Edwards has the momentum and the excitement. I can see why- the more I see of him the more I like him and we all wondered why his polls didn't pick up- looks like it is a last minute thing. Whatever the finish between these two it will be very very close. My gut says it will be Kerry third but I really would not doubt Edwards and if he comes in third, it could be the story of the whole process and gives him a big boost going into NH and Sunbelt Tuesday.

If this happens- Dean-Gep-Ed-Kerry, Gephardt is finished, Kerry is in serious trouble, Dean regains some ground and Edwards is on fire. Going into NH Dean will probably add to his ever-narrowing lead there but Kerry's weakness will mean momentum for Wesley Clark. Edwards will probably start to catch on there too so the unthinkable might actually happen- Kerry finishes 4th. A third place finish with Edwards close on his heels (and Dean and Clark ahead of him) is more likely I think. Kerry will be done at that point.

Now, Sunbelt Tuesday promises to rid us of Lieberman as he is doing shit in all of those states. I think that Dean wins AZ, NM, DE, ND and MO, Clark wins OK and Edwards wins SC. This ought to be enough to clinch it for Dean though Edwards, with his key SC win, might try to keep his momentum going. I think the media will focus on Dean's 5 wins- 2 of them in inconsequential state (ND and DE)- rather than Edwards one key win. Dean will be a big leader in delegates by this point and he'll kick ass with Dems Abroad (the only candidate even campaigning there), Michigan, Washington and Maine. I think he'll kick Tennessee and focus on Virginia where he'll do better than expected and either Clark or Edwards- whoever finishes second in TN (I suspect Edwards)- will be done. DC's caucus will go his way, Nevada will be a fight, WI, HI and ID will go his way, UT to Clark/Edwards.

Then with a huge lead and all the momentum we go into Super Tuesday. Dean should handily carry CA, CT, MD, MA, MN, NY, RI and VT. Clark/Edwards will be left with measly GA and OH and will concede to Dean.

Of course, if Gephardt wins IA, its a whole other story... Clark wins NH killing Kerry, bowls over everyone in SC, DE, OK, AZ and NM. Gephardt wins MO and ND and Edwards and Lieberman are for sure done, Gephardt will be struggling at best. He'll hold out for Michigan a week later, which will be closer than he hoped and he'll lose Washington. The next day he loses Maine, then he loses TN and VA and finally on Valentines Day he loses DC and NV- and he concedes on February 15 to Wes Clark.

If Kerry somehow does the impossible and wins IA, all bets are off again. He wins NH a week later- is now the "comeback kid"- skips most of the states the next week maybe competing in DE, AZ and NM- winning the first and doing well (maybe winning) the second two. At this point only either Clark/Edwards will be left against him and after he takes MI, WA and ME and then has a surprise win in VA (not even contesting TN) Clark or Edwards gives in. Kerry is the nominee.

Finally, if the really impossible happens and Edwards wins the caucuses. Kerry probably wins NH, Edwards wins SC, OK, MO, ND and probably AZ or NM. Kerry wins only tiny DE and maybe AZ or NM. Kerry wins Dems Abroad, Michigan and Washington goes to Edwards. Then Kerry takes Maine, Edwards takes TN and VA, DC goes for Kerry and NV for Edwards and then the big day will be February 17- Wisconsin. It'll be a battle and whoever wins that, wins the nomination.

So who do I think the nominee will be? I'd say Dean has the best shot, followed a little ways behind by Clark then a ways back by Kerry and then quite a ways back is Edwards. Lieberman and Gephardt are done.

Posted by: Andrew D at January 17, 2004 09:52 AM

My 2 cents:

Look for Carl Rove behind the changes...for example encouraging Republicans to take an active involvement in primaries since Bush faces no opposition.

Posted by: Chaz at January 17, 2004 12:27 PM

Iowans are clearly reacting to the negative attack ads by Dean and Gephardt.
Dean owes his early success to his unambiguous anti-Bush message which resonated with the Democratic rank and file who are disgusted by the current administration. A candidate who was unafraid of Bush was seen as one who could defeat the Flightsuit-in-Chief.
Gephardt is seen as having good contacts with key segments of the Democratic Party. His union backing provides him with an effective instant organization and an early boost in the fight against Dubya.

But when Democratic candidates spend more time beating up each other than attacking the common enemy, they become damaged goods.
In the Midwest, we're very pragmatic about such things. Those of us who are focused on victory in November do not want a standard bearer who may be excessively weakened by the primary process.
Edwards has been the least negative of the major candidates. Most of his views are acceptable to the vast majority of Democrats. In personal terms, he comes across as reasonable, intelligent, and not snippy. His "good ol' boy" accent makes him seem like one of the guys.

If Edwards wins in Iowa, a collective "d'oh" will be heard coming from the mass of pundits who are currently camped out in the Hawkeye State.

Posted by: Tim Z at January 17, 2004 05:37 PM

Never go negative in a multiple candidate race.

One of the oldest axioms in the political handbook.

Posted by: Blue at January 18, 2004 11:18 AM

I understand that Kerry has been running a hell of a nasty direct-mail campaign. Also, I've heard rumors that Kerry's camp was push-polling.

All this came from Kos diaries and such, so...take it for what it's worth.

Posted by: Morat at January 19, 2004 01:59 PM

News, Politics, and Fun From Deep in the Heart of Texas

January 17, 2004

What the heck is Going on in Iowa?

By Byron LaMasters