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January 19, 2004Ok, I'll biteBy Byron LaMastersThis is a shot in the dark, but I'm about to head to work and won't be back until 11 PM or so, so I'll shoot. Byron's Iowa Predictions... 1. Howard Dean 28% Turnout: 150,000 Gephardt drops out this week, Dean and Kerry have the Mo' going into New Hampshire, Edwards readies for South Carolina showdown... So, anyway, as the returns come in tonight, yall are welcome to laugh at me. The Iowa Democratic Party will post the returns here. Here's what Andrew Predicts: 1. Howard Dean 30% Turnout will be record- 140,000 Posted by Byron LaMasters at January 19, 2004 05:41 PM | TrackBack
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Rats, Kerry is actually the most electable of the Dems, and he is the big winner tonight. Gephardt is done, Dean wounded, Edwards boosted. On to NH. I predict winner of NH will win the nomination - Dean, Kerry, or Clark. TM Posted by: TM at January 19, 2004 08:42 PMThat's interesting. I thought Dean's organization would pull it out for him. I guess not. Actually, I disagree, TM. Kerry is the candidate I'd most like to face, only I didn't think the Dems would nominate him. Maybe I am wrong about that. He comes across as an eliteist (if my spelling is correct), even more so than Dean. Plus, he has 20 years of left wing bona fides in the Senate we can easily use to brand him as another Massachussetts liberal. Gephardt might be done, but after Lieberman, he was the most electable Dem candidate. He might be a hard left winger, but unlike Kerry and Dean, he comes across (usually) as a common man who doesn't think he is better than you are. Still, this race just got a lot more entertaining. Maybe the Dems will actually select their nominee, not simply formally annoint him, at the Boston convention after all. Sherk Posted by: Sherk at January 19, 2004 09:07 PMYou guys need to go back to school when it comes to prognosticating. Your maple syrup M.D. took a real whupin' tonite. Dean will be history by the time the Priamry race heads South. Posted by: Bill Tomp at January 19, 2004 09:40 PMStatistics and polls are useful in making predictions, but you should never underestimate personality as a factor which determines how people will vote for president. Posted by: Tim Z at January 19, 2004 09:53 PMI'm surprised to admit it, but I think Sherk's correct. Kerry does come across as elitist, and while his Senate voting record's a lot more centrist than you'd expect for "another Massachusetts liberal," that's the meme Bush and Rove will push if he becomes the nominee. Kerry actually does remind me of Dukakis. And Gephardt does come across as a common working man, much more so than either Kerry or Dean. Gephardt started out in politics as a conservative, pro-gun, anti-abortion, John Dingell-type Democrat, but over the years he moved considerably leftward. Ironically, it may have been a move back toward the right – pushing Bush's Iraq resolution through Congress – that ended his career, as it left him out of touch with his own party's grassroots, yet far too liberal for the GOP. Like most opponents of the Iraq misadventure as well as the Dems' general milquetoast attitude, I was furious with Gephardt over his role in furthering both. I was happy to see him step down as minority leader and unenthusiastic, to say the least, about his Presidential campaign. But it's still a shame to see it end this way: with a humiliating loss in a state he should have owned. I guess Jim Hightower was right: there really is nothing in the middle of the road but yellow lines and dead armadilloes. Posted by: Mathwiz at January 20, 2004 12:39 PM
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