Burnt Orange Report

Final Iowa Predictions

By Andrew Dobbs

Here's how it will break down:

1. Howard Dean 30%
2. Dick Gephardt 25%
3. John Edwards 23%
4. John Kerry 22%

Turnout will be record- 140,000

Why? Dean and Gephardt have the best ground organizations and have good hard counts to work from. This means that they are already at a huge advantage that polls simply can't show. Three factors contribute to Dean having such a substantial lead over Gep. First, he is outpolling him in almost all of the public polls by at least a couple of poins. Second, he will almost certainly get at least 2/3 of the Kucinich and Sharpton realigners and a significant number of Clark supporters- those numbers add up quickly. Thirdly, he will be bringing in a huge number of unidentified voters- his people say that they have probably 60% first time Caucus-goers for their hard count and these people are skipped by pollsters. This puts Dean on top.

Gephardt is next simply because he is the only other candidate that has made good use of the voter file, has a strong hard count and good mobilization. Strong on his heels though are Edwards and Kerry. I wanted to put Kerry third because of his strong poll numbers and his stronger organization but essentially both the Johns have the same strategy- Election Day flying blind vs. Longterm Nose Counting (Dean and Gep). Edwards is surging and has become an inspiring candidate. Hell, I like the guy a lot now and if he'd been doing this well 2-3 months ago I might be on a different side now. He'll get most of the Clarkers I think and probably the majority of the Lieberman supporters. All of this makes him a close third and the second biggest story of the night. After Dean's surprisingly easy victory it'll be Edwards out-doing his own expectations. Expect to hear the oft-related statistic that no one who finished lower than 3rd in Iowa has ever gone on to the nomination since their rise to prominence in 1972 and expect Edwards' place among the Iowa 3 to be a big boost for him.

So what will it mean? Gephardt will be finito and Kerry will be on life support. Dean will regain the "front-runner" title but Edwards now becomes the leading insurgent and will most likely cut into Clark's momentum in New Hampshire. This sews up the Granite State for Dean and then February 3 becomes the battleground. Dean will struggle through this day, probably picking up North Dakota, Delaware and maybe Arizona, Missouri and New Mexico while Clark and Edwards battle for South Carolina and Oklahoma. Whoever comes out on top between the two of them- 1st place finishes in SC and OK, 2nd place finishes in ND and DE and surprise victories or better than expected finishes everywhere else- will survive, the other will be finished. Dean and the Southerner trudge through the next several states but it'll either be over on February 17 when Wisconsin goes for Dean or March 2nd when Dean kicks butt on Super Tuesday. Either way, Dean is the nominee, the Southerner would do well to unite the party and run for VP and we'll be off to the races against Bush!