Burnt Orange Report

Poll Shows Hutchison Leads Perry Among GOP Primary Voters

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Guest Post By Vince Leibowitz

Results of a poll released today shows that Republican primary voters favor U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison over Governor Rick Perry, though Perry, inspite of his screw-ups, managed to fair well against other potential primary opponents.

The poll, conduced by Democratic pollsters Montgomery and Associates, from November 16 through December 2, 2004 tested 1,035 Texans, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

In the poll, the 478 respondents who said that they vote in the Republican primary against various hypothetical incumbents.

When Perry was pitted against Hutchison, the results were pretty dramatic: 59.5 percent said they would vote for Hutchison, compared to 31.6 percent who said they would support Gov. Perry.

But, in a race against "One Tough Grandma," Comptroller Carole Strayhorn, Perry led 56 percent to 29.7 percent. Perry also leg against former U.S. Secretary of Commerce Don Evans 59.2 percent to 19.6 percent. The pollsters didn't poll on some of the other names being floated, however, such as Bush advisor Karen Hughes.

Though I was surprised at how well Hutchison did against Perry, I wasn't surprised by the Strayhorn results. Though Strayhorn is supposedly popular across party lines and still manages to win elections, impression questions asked in the poll of all voters showed she only had a favorible rating of 37.5 percent. As for how Strayhorn faired among Republicans, it's no surprise because core GOP primary voters still believe she's too liberal and too loud.

The Hutchison/Perry results remain an enigma to me, though. Sure, Hutchison is wildly popular, but among the religious conservatives that make up the party's base in Texas, she's still considered far more liberal than Perry. I still say that in an actual election and not a poll, Perry will come out ahead because of the makeup of the party these days. However, it's difficult, in a phone poll, to find out if a someone who says they are a GOP primary voter is part of the ultra-conservative wing that dominates the party--and wins elections.

I continue to maintain that, as poorly as Perry has done, the core base of the GOP would select him over Hutchison because he's most appealing to ultra-conservatives. I think his favorable rating among GOP voters, 60.7 percent according to the poll, comes a long way toward illustrating that. Sure, in a phone poll, people may say they'll vote for Hutchison. But, after the far-right floods their mailboxes, TV and radio with ads that make her look like a liberal pro-abortion radical, they'll change their tune.

All participants in the poll were also asked "whether your impression of each is generally favorable, neutral, or generally unfavorable," relating to various Texas leaders. Here's how that panned out:

Sen. Hutchison was the best known and best liked. 64.1 percent had a favorable impression and only 11.7 percent had an unfavorable impression of her, giving her a hard name identification rating of 75.8 percent. (17.2 percent were neutral and 7.1 percent had not heard of her).

Gov. Rick Perry's hard name ID was almost as high as Sen. Hutchison's, at 70.4 percent. However, his favorable was 44.1 percent and his unfavorable was 26.3 percent, a more negative ratio. (27.1 percent were neutral and 2.6 percent had not heard of him.)

But, of course, Perry got far more positive ratings among Republicans--60.7 percent favorable, 10.7 percent unfavorable--than he did overall. Among Republicans, Hutchison's impression numbers are 78.3 percent favorable, 3.3 percent unfavorable.

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison Favorable: 64.1 percent Unfavorable: 11.7 percent Neutral: 17.2 percent Haven't heard of: 7.1 percent

Sen. John Cornyn
Favorable: 33.8 percent
Unfavorable: 11.6 percent
Neutral: 29.5 percent
Haven't Heard of: 25.1 percent

Gov. Rick Perry
Favorable: 44.1 percent
Unfavorable: 26.3 percent
Neutral: 27.1 percent
Haven't Heard of: 2.6 percent

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst
Favorable: 31.0 percent
Unfavorable: 12.1 percent
Neutral: 35.7 percent
Haven't Heard of: 21.2 percent

Comptroller Carol Keeton Strayhorn
Favorable: 37.5 percent
Unfavorable: 8.7 percent
Neutral: 29.3 percent
Haven't Heard of: 24.5 percent

House Speaker Tom Craddick
Favorable: 20.7 percent
Unfavorable: 11.6 percent
Neutral: 34.0 percent
Haven't Heard of: 33.7 percent

Agricultural Commissioner Susan Combs:
Favorable: 20.2 percent
Unfavorable: 4.6 percent
Neutral: 32.9 percent
Haven't Heard of: 42.3 percent

Surprising to me was that 42.3 percent of Texans had never heard of Susan Combs. With so many in the state involved in various aspects of agriculture, I'd figure this number would be much lower. How 33 percent of Texans can claim they've never heard of Tom Craddick is beyond me. Maybe they don't read newspapers, watch television, or surf the 'net. Maybe they live under rocks, who knows.

Vince Leibowitz is County Chairman of the Democratic Party of Van Zandt County. He is a regular contributor to the Political State Report.