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August 07, 2004State of the HouseBy Karl-Thomas MusselmanTwo years ago, Congressional elections went very badly for Democrats as we lost seats thanks to a lack of message, spine, and money. Bush was King (in more than one way) and he led his party to victory. No one ever thought that in 2004 we would be where we are today. Kerry even or ahead in the polls, the Democratic Party flush with funds, and a base that is energized. What may be even more stunning are stories like this where the topic is how Democratic leaders are saying how it's possible, possible to win back the House or come damn close to it. Who would have thunk it, eh?
Isn't it nice? Posted by Karl-Thomas Musselman at August 7, 2004 12:09 AM | TrackBack
Comments
I'm not quite so optimistic. I see competitive districts, but I also more GOP districts, thanks to Texas redistricting. Our local Democrat, Chet Edwards is gonna be lucky to keep his seat, so I'm kinda viewing the election sthrough that prism. Having said that, I'm very optimistic of a retake of the Senate. Posted by: Nate at August 7, 2004 05:35 AMI hate to be the one to throw cold water (again), but CNN's analysis sounds fishy: Democrats see 33 seats across the country as competitive -- far less than the 68 in play in 1994, but then the Dems only need a net gain of 11 to win back the House. That means winning one out of every three competitive races.... Huh? Dems only win to need 11 of 33 competitive races to retake the House? That only works if every competitive race is currently held by a Republican. I'm not sure of the partisan makeup of those 33 races, but it's reasonable to assume they're about even, like the House as a whole. If it's currently 16R-15D, we'd have to get to 5R-26D to pick up those 11 seats and retake control. That means winning better than 1 of every 1.3 competitive races - a far steeper climb than the GOP had in '94. To be precise, the situation isn't quite that bad, since if we get anywhere near 1 in 1.3 in those 33 races, there'll undoubtedly be several upsets in other races which would help push us over the top. But it'd still take a Democratic landslide the likes of which we haven't seen since '64. It could happen, but I wouldn't bet the house on it (no pun intended). Posted by: Mathwiz at August 13, 2004 03:52 PM
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