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June 05, 2004Don't Listen to Polls.... YetBy Andrew DobbsI keep hearing polls for various states and the nation as a whole. While these have some usefulness in gauging momentum, they really aren't very meaningful at this point. The only people very closely watching the presidential election right now are junkies- people who think that reading about politics is really cool. The vast majority of Americans are in kind of a holding pattern, dealing with life and will start listening to the news a bit closer come Labor Day. As a result, I really don't put much credence in the polls right now. Still, the number of undecideds is decidedly low this year. The latest Rasmussen poll has their number at about 6%- very tiny considering that the election is still 5 months away. The fact of the matter is that most of those- perhaps as much as 2/3rd or 3/4ths of them- will break for Kerry. If you have had 4 years to watch Bush and you still aren't convinced, chances are you'll cast your vote for someone else. Still, I think that the softest area of support is in Bush's numbers. People who say they support Kerry right now (as he is largely unknown or very little known around the country) are for the most part either rabid Democrats, rabid Bush-haters or just really like the guy. Bush's numbers are, on the other hand, full of a lot of people who just choose him by default. I think that as time goes on, if Kerry can keep things going strong, that number might dip a point or two. All of this, of course, bodes very well for Sen. Kerry. The other thing that bodes well is the magic 50% line. 5 months out, less than half of all Americans say they want the same guy to be President. It is kind of like if you were to ask your wife "Are we going to be married 5 months from now" and she said "Well, I'm at about 43% on that one..." Kerry is set to take a lot of the vote that way. But once again- 5 months is an eternity in politics. Absolutely anything could happen- including something we haven't even imagined yet. Sex scandals, terrorist attacks, drug scandals, mental breakdowns, a particularly serious gaffe- anything could happen. Talk to Clayton Williams, the 1990 Republican candidate for Governor of Texas. Ol' Claytie (as his friends called him) had a 20 point lead at Labor Day- that magic date I spoke of earlier. Then he had the good sense to make a very offensive joke on the record about a woman being raped, he refused to shake is opponent's hand (Ann Richards) during a televised debate and was generally mean spirited and rude. He lost bad to Richards only 8 weeks later. Anything can happen, and Kerry will be lucky to be working with an 8 point lead, not 20. All of this is to say, don't worry about the polls right now. Be glad that Kerry is in the mid to upper 40s in most polls in competitive states and that Bush is lower than that. Call me back in 3 months and we'll see where we stand. Posted by Andrew Dobbs at June 5, 2004 12:21 PM | TrackBack
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