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May 26, 2004Charlie Cook on the Texas RacesBy Byron LaMastersCharlie Cook has a must read on the current state of the "2004 toss up races", which include all five of the embattled Texas Democratic incumbents. Check it out here (pdf file). If you don't have time to catch the whole thing, here's the gist of what Cook says (with a few of my thoughts added in). On TX-1, Cook gives Sandlin opponent Gohmert the edge, although a recent poll showed the race within the margin of error (44-41 Gohmert). For Sandlin to win, Cook says Sandlin must make the race about the candidates and not their party labels - ok, tell us something we don't know. One thing that Cook said about Gohmert really caught my eye:
Yikes. That's just weird. I support laws requiring people that have HIV / AIDS to inform their sex partners of their condition before having unprotected sex, but in terms of having the punishment fit the crime, the above ruling makes little sense. Anyway, moving on... Cook calls TX-2 a complete toss up that will come down to the ability of Nick Lampson to overperform in Jefferson County and be able to at least hold his own (35%) in Harris County. Tough, but doable. Cook says that in TX-17, Chet Edwards is the best campaigner in the Texas delegation and the race will be decided on who best defines the other. If Edwards wins, it will be because he successfully defined Arlene Wohlgemuth as an out-of-touch, right-wing extremist. If Wohlgemuth wins, she will have succeeded in portraying Edwards as a liberal Democrat. In TX-19, competing polls paint different pictures of the race. A Republican poll has Randy Neugebauer up by eleven points and a Democratic poll has Stenholm up by four. The reality is likely somewhere in between. The district strongly favors Neugebauer, but Stenholm will be the hardest of any of the Texas Democrats to paint as a liberal. He has deep roots in west Texas and ought to have a fighting chance. In TX-32, it's already a hard hitting fight between Pete Sessions and Martin Frost. Cook notes something that I've thought before. The race currently leans towards Sessions, but should he stumble, Frost will take advantage of it. Unlike Frost, Sessions is much less of a seasoned campaigner, and he's prone to saying silly things. Anyway, I'd pretty much agree with most of Charlie Cook's thoughts. He knows what he's talking about, so read away! Via Political Wire and Off the Kuff. Posted by Byron LaMasters at May 26, 2004 04:13 PM | TrackBack
Comments
I disagree a little with Cook. I'd call Gohmert-Sandlin a toss-up. I think Max! Sandlin can win the new first. It will come down to turnout. The demographics are similar to the Eltife-Sadler Senate race. Gohmert will turnout South Tyler and Longview but that's it. Sandlin needs to turnout black North Tyler, and the black populations in Lufkin, Longview, and Nacogdoches. Sandlin will win all of the other counties outside Tyler and Longview. Nacogdoches county could be the battleground area. I think Chet will survive. As seen in the Texas Observer, many moderate GOPers in Wolgemuth's Johnson County are backing Edwards, and giving money to him. Chet may break 60% in McLennan this time. Chet always has a good field organization, and the Aggie network in the Brazos Valley can split their ticket as they have done before (John Sharp). Lampson needs 70% in Beaumont-Pt. Arthur, plus at least 35% in the North Houston FM 1960 area. Don't know if he will make it. I like Stenholm, I just think Lubbock County is so straight ticket Republican he won't make it. Not even former state Senator John Montford could win that district. GOP lean. Sessions is nuts enough to lose in a 62% GOP district. The GOP was smart to take out Hamilton Park and the SW part of Richardson out of the 32nd. Still Frost always runs good campaigns and his field staff is great. Tossup. Posted by: pc at May 26, 2004 07:26 PMChet Edwards might have a fighting chance. Th rest are goners. Only someone in a drug induced coma could think Martin Frost has a fighting chance in that seat. Those North Dallas Precincts are solid, solid, solid Republican. Posted by: LT at May 27, 2004 11:23 AM
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