Burnt Orange Report
News, Politics, and Fun From Deep in the Heart of Texas
|
|
Burnt Orange ReportNews, Politics, and Fun From Deep in the Heart of Texas |
|
Support the TDP!  
|
 |
January 08, 2004This Just In: John Kerry Handing Dean Iowa...By Andrew DobbsHow so, you ask? Well, as Taegan noted on Political Wire, the Houston Chronicle reports that John Kerry is aiming for second in Iowa.
With such a crowded field it is likely that in Iowa there will be only 1 or 2 candidates at most that can break the 15%. Furthermore, all of those Kucinich people (who are unlikely to have 15% and are a force to be reckoned with in dovish, pro-labor, populist Iowa), all of those Sharpton and Braun people and have to go somewhere- most of them will go to Dean. As a result, Dean probably now has 40% of the vote or so. If 2 candidates are fighting a knockdown dragout for the other 60%, neither is likely to beat Dean. Sure, if Kerry gets second that'll be a big story, but Dean will still walk away the winner. The best way to stop Dean would be for Kerry to lower expectations publicly- "I'm hoping for a top 3 finish and then we can focus on NH"- and then try a half-hearted attempt at second and then throw his support to Gephardt. Instead, he's gunning for Gephardt and the two of them might split the vote enough that Dean wins big. Now, the story isn't "Look- Kerry finished second" it's "Howard Dean blew them out of the water." Going into NH, Clark is currently in second. If Kerry comes in 2nd in IA that'll hurt Clark, but if Dean wins big there, it'll bolster his "inevitability" and strengthen his NH finish, killing Kerry's chances. This will play into his hand and by January 28 both Gephardt and Kerry's gooses will be cooked with Howard Dean walking away with a big advantage in delegates. All of this is to say that after January 28 it will be a 4 man race- Dean, Clark, Edwards and Lieberman- and after February 3 it'll be at most a two man race- Dean and Clark. Get ready for a bloody February and early March as they fight it out for the nomination, but hopefully when the dust clears they'll both be on the ticket despite declarations to the contrary. Posted by Andrew Dobbs at January 8, 2004 09:19 AM | TrackBack
Comments
If Howard Dean hasn't gotten the Kucinich, Braun people yet, they aren't going to go to him at the caucuses nor to Gephardt who has been a fixture for a long time. But they will go to either Kerry or Edwards. Add these up and it is possible for Kerry to have a strong second and challenge for first. Admittedly only one survives to February, Kerry or Gephardt. For either campaign to go to February they have to do well in Jan. But you are right then that helps Dean in NH. Dean still has the resources for the long haul. That's why Clark's late entry hurts him in terms of organizational muscle. Kerry has/d campaigns elsewhere and they could be reinflatable. Lieberman is just a spoiler but if Edwards comes in 4th repeatedly he won't do well in February. Posted by: Debra at January 9, 2004 01:40 AMDo you really think Kerry can pull Kooch voters? I must admit, I only know one 'out of the closet' Kooch supporter, but he's a pretty big one. Runs the blog entitled "Something's Got to Break" that is found over to the right (I kinda drunkenly ruined his wedding). Anyways, I am certain he would never go to Kerry before the Convention and has great reservations about most of the other leaders. Kooch people aren't pragmatists, generally. They're with him because they believe in his message and they're willing to fight for it until the acceptance speech is delivered. Kerry doesn't envigorate them, but I think they'll go for him in the general if nominated. Posted by: monceaux at January 9, 2004 08:09 AM
Post a comment
|
|
About Us
About BOR
Advertising Policies Byron L. - Founder Karl-Thomas M. - Owner Andrea M. - Contact Andrew D. - Contact Damon M. - Contact Drew C. - Contact Jim D. - Contact John P. - Contact Katie N. - Contact Kirk M. - Contact Marcus C. - Contact Matt H. - Contact Phillip M. - Contact Vince L. - Contact Zach N. - Conact
Donate
Archives
November 2005
October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003 August 2003 July 2003 June 2003
Recent Entries
Home Again
Greg Abbott gets a gold star Bush's Exit Strategy Courts Rule on School Finance Bill and Bell: More Than Just an "I" In Other Gubernatorial News... Where To See Your 2006 Democratic Hopefuls Just plain wrong. Person of the Year Sen. Eltife Speaks Out on School Reform Voting Rights Act Kabuki Dallas Democrats Preparing for 2006 Some Additions Phoney Baloney BORed: The Google Never Lies The Key Parrothead Demographic Rep. Coleman Issues Letter to John Sharp New Name in the Mix for TDP Chairman RPT Gets Deferred Prosecution Conversations with Bob Gammage
Categories
2004: Dem Convention (79)
2004: Elections (571) 2005: Elections (13) 2006: Texas Elections (154) 2006: US Elections (21) 2008: Presidential Election (9) About Burnt Orange (147) Around Campus (175) Austin City Limits (228) Axis of Idiots (34) Ballot Propositions (56) Blogs and Blogging (153) BOR Humor (69) BOR Sports (78) BORed (24) Budget (17) Burnt Orange Endorsements (15) Congress (47) Dallas City Limits (94) Elsewhere in Texas (40) Get into the Action! (11) GLBT (164) Houston City Limits (43) International (107) Intraparty (50) National Politics (585) On the Issues (13) Other Stuff (48) Politics for Dummies (11) Pop Culture (68) Redistricting (257) San Antonio City Limits (6) Social Security (31) Texas Lege (181) Texas Politics (770) The Economy, Stupid (18) The Media (8)
BOR Edu.
University of Texas
University Democrats
BOR News
The Daily Texan
The Statesman The Chronicle
BOR Politics
DNC
DNC Blog: Kicking Ass DSCC DSCC Blog: From the Roots DCCC DCCC Blog: The Stakeholder Texas Dems Travis County Dems Dallas Young Democrats U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett State Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos State Rep. Dawnna Dukes State Rep. Elliott Naishtat State Rep. Eddie Rodriguez State Rep. Mark Strama
Traffic Ratings
Alexa Rating
Marketleap Truth Laid Bear Ecosystem Technoranti Link Cosmos Blogstreet Blogback
Polling
American Research Group
Annenberg Election Survey Gallup Polling Report Rasmussen Reports Survey USA Zogby
Texas Stuff
A Little Pollyana
Austin Bloggers D Magazine DFW Bogs DMN Blog In the Pink Texas Inside the Texas Capitol The Lasso Pol State TX Archives Quorum Report Daily Buzz George Strong Political Analysis Texas Law Blog Texas Monthly Texas Observer
TX Dem Blogs
100 Monkeys Typing
Alandwilliams.com Alt 7 Annatopia Appalachia Alumni Association Barefoot and Naked BAN News Betamax Guillotine Blue Texas Border Ass News The Daily DeLay The Daily Texican DemLog Dos Centavos Drive Democracy Easter Lemming Esoterically Get Donkey Greg's Opinion Half the Sins of Mankind Jim Hightower Houtopia Hugo Zoom Latinos for Texas Off the Kuff Ones and Zeros Panhandle Truth Squad Aaron Peña's Blog People's Republic of Seabrook Pink Dome The Red State Rhetoric & Rhythm Rio Grande Valley Politics Save Texas Reps Skeptical Notion Something's Got to Break Southpaw Stout Dem Blog The Scarlet Left Tex Prodigy ToT View From the Left Yellow Doggeral Democrat
TX GOP Blogs
Beldar Blog
Blogs of War Boots and Sabers Dallas Arena Jessica's Well Lone Star Times Publius TX Safety for Dummies The Sake of Arguement Slightly Rough
Daily Reads
&c.
ABC's The Note Atrios BOP News Daily Kos Media Matters MyDD NBC's First Read Political State Report Political Animal Political Wire Talking Points Memo Wonkette Matthew Yglesias
College Blogs
CDA Blog
Get More Ass (Brown) Dem Apples (Harvard) KU Dems U-Delaware Dems UNO Dems Stanford Dems
GLBT Blogs
American Blog
BlogActive Boi From Troy Margaret Cho Downtown Lad Gay Patriot Raw Story Stonewall Dems Andrew Sullivan
More Reads
Living Indefinitely
Blogroll Burnt Orange!
BOR Webrings
< ? Texas Blogs # >
<< ? austinbloggers # >> « ? MT blog # » « ? MT # » « ? Verbosity # »
Election Returns
CNN 1998 Returns
CNN 2000 Returns CNN 2002 Returns CNN 2004 Returns state elections 1992-2005 bexar county elections collin county elections dallas county elections denton county elections el paso county elections fort bend county elections galveston county elections harris county elections jefferson county elections tarrant county elections travis county elections
Texas Media
abilene
abilene reporter news alpine alpine avalanche amarillo amarillo globe news austin austin american statesman austin chronicle daily texan online keye news (cbs) kut (npr) kvue news (abc) kxan news (nbc) news 8 austin beaumont beaumont enterprise brownsville brownsville herald college station the battalion (texas a&m) corpus christi corpus christi caller times kris news (fox) kztv news (cbs) crawford crawford lone star iconoclast dallas-fort worth dallas morning news dallas observer dallas voice fort worth star-telegram kdfw news (fox) kera (npr) ktvt news (cbs) nbc5 news wfaa news (abc) del rio del rio news herald el paso el paso times kdbc news (cbs) kfox news (fox) ktsm (nbc) kvia news (abc) fredericksburg standard-radio post galveston galveston county daily news harlingen valley morning star houston houston chronicle houston press khou news (cbs) kprc news (nbc) ktrk news (abc) kerrville kerrville daily times laredo laredo morning times lockhart lockhart post-register lubbock lubbock avalanche journal lufkin lufkin daily news marshall marshall news messenger mcallen the monitor midland - odessa midland reporter telegram odessa american san antonio san antonio express-news seguin seguin gazette-enterprise texarkana texarkana gazette tyler tyler morning telegraph victoria victoria advocate waco kxxv news (abc) kwtx news (cbs) waco tribune-herald weslaco krgv news (nbc) statewide texas cable news texas triangle
World News
ABC News All Africa News Arab News Atlanta Constitution-Journal News.com Australia BBC News Bloomberg Boston Globe CBS News Chicago Tribune Christian Science Monitor CNN Denver Post FOX News Google News The Guardian Inside China Today International Herald Tribune Japan Times LA Times Mexico Daily Miami Herald MSNBC New Orleans Times-Picayune New York Times El Pais (Spanish) Salon San Francisco Chronicle Seattle Post-Intelligencer Slate Times of India Toronto Star Wall Street Journal Washington Post
Powered by
Movable Type 3.2b1 |
|