Burnt Orange Report
News, Politics, and Fun From Deep in the Heart of Texas
|
|
Burnt Orange ReportNews, Politics, and Fun From Deep in the Heart of Texas |
|
Support the TDP!  
|
 |
January 21, 2004Kerry Taking the Lead in National, NH Tracking PollsBy Byron LaMastersExpect John Kerry to be leading most New Hampshire tracking polls by tomorrow, and definitely by Friday. While Dean leads Kerry by two points currently in three major tracking polls in NH, Kerry overtook Dean yesterday in each of the three. For example, in the three day (1/18-1/20) tracking poll by the American Research Group, Dean leads Kerry 26% to 24%. However, I expect that by tomorrow, Kerry will have a lead. Of those polled yesterday, Kerry led by five points:
Dean also leads the Zogby three day Tracking Poll in NH by two points - 25% to 23%. But again, yesterday's poll numbers had Kerry ahead.
Also, the Suffolk University poll gives Dean a 22% to 20% lead over Kerry in its two-day tracking poll. However, yesterday's polling showed Kerry leading by three points:
Finally, Rasmussen Reports National Tracking Poll shows Dean leading Kerry 20% to 18%, but with Kerry surging Tuesday:
Certainly a trend here. If Dean doesn't get a bounce out of New Hampshire, he's going to have a hard time finding victories on February 3rd. Assuming Kerry's lead over Dean holds past the initial post-Iowa surge, we'll soon be looking to see if Clark or Edwards makes a surge in NH to possibly overtake Dean. Dean needs a makeover. He needs to do something new and big and he needs to do it now, because he's in trouble. Poll links via kos and Political Wire. Posted by Byron LaMasters at January 21, 2004 02:37 PM | TrackBack
Comments
Not that I want to see it, but Dean is out. Historians will be studying him for a long time - from nowhere to presumptive nominee back to nowhere in such a short priod of time. Posted by: WhoMe? at January 21, 2004 03:05 PMByron, please email me asap. Mail I send to your lamasters@mail.utexas.edu account keeps getting bounced. retrogrouch care of retrogrouch.net Posted by: Retrogrouch at January 21, 2004 03:23 PMSorry about the email problems... if anyone else tried emailing me since about 2 AM this morning, I didn't get it because I got hit by some virus or something and my account filled up. I guess that's what happens when I don't check my email account for a day... Posted by: Byron L at January 21, 2004 03:28 PMGiven that Kerry was considered a walking corpse about two months ago, at this point I'm utterly unwilling to call anyone "out of the game". Besides maybe Lieberman. Dean's support (and Clark's, actually) was going to drop after losing Iowa to Kerry. Kerry's was going to rise. What happens over the next week is fluid. Clark can handle a third in NH, but is better with a second. He can't handle a loss to Edwards and Kerry well, so he's going to have to fight some. Basically put, we've got Iowa again...the only difference is that the fight will only last a week. You've got two candidates (Kerry and Clark) fighting over the same type of voter. (Poll after poll shows that when Kerry rises, Clark falls..and vice versa). If nothing else, that gives Dean a chance (however small) to emulate Kerry's move in Iowa. Let Kerry and Clark sling all the mud and get the media once-over, while Dean quietly stumps around New Hampshire. Tommorow's debate is going to be big. If Dean does well, and Kerry and Clark seem to focus on each other, then Dean's got a chance. But I'm not going out on a limb and predicting anyone's truimph or failure. I learned my lesson from Iowa. :) Posted by: Morat at January 21, 2004 03:58 PMDrudge is linking to a poll that has Kerry up 10 in NH. Still, NH and a few early successes don't inherently make a nomination victory, just ask President McCain. Kerry doesn't have much in the way of resources for a long campaign, IF the other candidates stick it out. I don't think Dean is as dead as so many of you are proclaiming. Just a few states breaking for him could turn things around easily. Sherk Posted by: Sherk at January 21, 2004 06:06 PM
Post a comment
|
|
About Us
About BOR
Advertising Policies Byron L. - Founder Karl-Thomas M. - Owner Andrea M. - Contact Andrew D. - Contact Damon M. - Contact Drew C. - Contact Jim D. - Contact John P. - Contact Katie N. - Contact Kirk M. - Contact Marcus C. - Contact Matt H. - Contact Phillip M. - Contact Vince L. - Contact Zach N. - Conact
Donate
Archives
November 2005
October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003 August 2003 July 2003 June 2003
Recent Entries
Bill and Bell: More Than Just an "I"
Just plain wrong. Person of the Year Sen. Eltife Speaks Out on School Reform Voting Rights Act Kabuki Dallas Democrats Preparing for 2006 Some Additions Phoney Baloney BORed: The Google Never Lies The Key Parrothead Demographic Rep. Coleman Issues Letter to John Sharp New Name in the Mix for TDP Chairman RPT Gets Deferred Prosecution Conversations with Bob Gammage Attention Austinites The "Run Almost Nowhere" Crowd Editorial: The Year of Change Barb Makes it Official Rep. Corte to be Challenged in SA David Harris Responds
Categories
2004: Dem Convention (79)
2004: Elections (571) 2005: Elections (13) 2006: Texas Elections (152) 2006: US Elections (21) 2008: Presidential Election (9) About Burnt Orange (147) Around Campus (175) Austin City Limits (228) Axis of Idiots (34) Ballot Propositions (56) Blogs and Blogging (153) BOR Humor (68) BOR Sports (78) BORed (24) Budget (17) Burnt Orange Endorsements (15) Congress (47) Dallas City Limits (94) Elsewhere in Texas (39) Get into the Action! (11) GLBT (164) Houston City Limits (43) International (107) Intraparty (50) National Politics (585) On the Issues (13) Other Stuff (48) Politics for Dummies (11) Pop Culture (68) Redistricting (257) San Antonio City Limits (6) Social Security (31) Texas Lege (181) Texas Politics (768) The Economy, Stupid (18) The Media (8)
BOR Edu.
University of Texas
University Democrats
BOR News
The Daily Texan
The Statesman The Chronicle
BOR Politics
DNC
DNC Blog: Kicking Ass DSCC DSCC Blog: From the Roots DCCC DCCC Blog: The Stakeholder Texas Dems Travis County Dems Dallas Young Democrats U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett State Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos State Rep. Dawnna Dukes State Rep. Elliott Naishtat State Rep. Eddie Rodriguez State Rep. Mark Strama
Traffic Ratings
Alexa Rating
Marketleap Truth Laid Bear Ecosystem Technoranti Link Cosmos Blogstreet Blogback
Polling
American Research Group
Annenberg Election Survey Gallup Polling Report Rasmussen Reports Survey USA Zogby
Texas Stuff
A Little Pollyana
Austin Bloggers D Magazine DFW Bogs DMN Blog In the Pink Texas Inside the Texas Capitol The Lasso Pol State TX Archives Quorum Report Daily Buzz George Strong Political Analysis Texas Law Blog Texas Monthly Texas Observer
TX Dem Blogs
100 Monkeys Typing
Alandwilliams.com Alt 7 Annatopia Appalachia Alumni Association Barefoot and Naked BAN News Betamax Guillotine Blue Texas Border Ass News The Daily DeLay The Daily Texican DemLog Dos Centavos Drive Democracy Easter Lemming Esoterically Get Donkey Greg's Opinion Half the Sins of Mankind Jim Hightower Houtopia Hugo Zoom Latinos for Texas Off the Kuff Ones and Zeros Panhandle Truth Squad Aaron Peña's Blog People's Republic of Seabrook Pink Dome The Red State Rhetoric & Rhythm Rio Grande Valley Politics Save Texas Reps Skeptical Notion Something's Got to Break Southpaw Stout Dem Blog The Scarlet Left Tex Prodigy ToT View From the Left Yellow Doggeral Democrat
TX GOP Blogs
Beldar Blog
Blogs of War Boots and Sabers Dallas Arena Jessica's Well Lone Star Times Publius TX Safety for Dummies The Sake of Arguement Slightly Rough
Daily Reads
&c.
ABC's The Note Atrios BOP News Daily Kos Media Matters MyDD NBC's First Read Political State Report Political Animal Political Wire Talking Points Memo Wonkette Matthew Yglesias
College Blogs
CDA Blog
Get More Ass (Brown) Dem Apples (Harvard) KU Dems U-Delaware Dems UNO Dems Stanford Dems
GLBT Blogs
American Blog
BlogActive Boi From Troy Margaret Cho Downtown Lad Gay Patriot Raw Story Stonewall Dems Andrew Sullivan
More Reads
Living Indefinitely
Blogroll Burnt Orange!
BOR Webrings
< ? Texas Blogs # >
<< ? austinbloggers # >> « ? MT blog # » « ? MT # » « ? Verbosity # »
Election Returns
CNN 1998 Returns
CNN 2000 Returns CNN 2002 Returns CNN 2004 Returns state elections 1992-2005 bexar county elections collin county elections dallas county elections denton county elections el paso county elections fort bend county elections galveston county elections harris county elections jefferson county elections tarrant county elections travis county elections
Texas Media
abilene
abilene reporter news alpine alpine avalanche amarillo amarillo globe news austin austin american statesman austin chronicle daily texan online keye news (cbs) kut (npr) kvue news (abc) kxan news (nbc) news 8 austin beaumont beaumont enterprise brownsville brownsville herald college station the battalion (texas a&m) corpus christi corpus christi caller times kris news (fox) kztv news (cbs) crawford crawford lone star iconoclast dallas-fort worth dallas morning news dallas observer dallas voice fort worth star-telegram kdfw news (fox) kera (npr) ktvt news (cbs) nbc5 news wfaa news (abc) del rio del rio news herald el paso el paso times kdbc news (cbs) kfox news (fox) ktsm (nbc) kvia news (abc) fredericksburg standard-radio post galveston galveston county daily news harlingen valley morning star houston houston chronicle houston press khou news (cbs) kprc news (nbc) ktrk news (abc) kerrville kerrville daily times laredo laredo morning times lockhart lockhart post-register lubbock lubbock avalanche journal lufkin lufkin daily news marshall marshall news messenger mcallen the monitor midland - odessa midland reporter telegram odessa american san antonio san antonio express-news seguin seguin gazette-enterprise texarkana texarkana gazette tyler tyler morning telegraph victoria victoria advocate waco kxxv news (abc) kwtx news (cbs) waco tribune-herald weslaco krgv news (nbc) statewide texas cable news texas triangle
World News
ABC News All Africa News Arab News Atlanta Constitution-Journal News.com Australia BBC News Bloomberg Boston Globe CBS News Chicago Tribune Christian Science Monitor CNN Denver Post FOX News Google News The Guardian Inside China Today International Herald Tribune Japan Times LA Times Mexico Daily Miami Herald MSNBC New Orleans Times-Picayune New York Times El Pais (Spanish) Salon San Francisco Chronicle Seattle Post-Intelligencer Slate Times of India Toronto Star Wall Street Journal Washington Post
Powered by
Movable Type 3.2b1 |
|