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December 09, 2003It Makes SenseBy Byron LaMastersWhy would Al Gore endorse Howard Dean? It makes sense. It's really simple. Here's why. I'd say that there's about a 90% chance that Howard Dean will win the Democratic nomination for President. Al Gore has been shut out of the Democratic establishment in Washington D.C. since his loss in 2000. Terry McAuliffe is a Clinton guy, as are most of the D.C. establishment types. Gore may be shut out in Washington D.C., but he has something else that is much more powerful. While he'll never be a hero to liberals, Al Gore brings about a feeling of nostalgia among Democrats of all stripes all across the country. We, along with the plurality of American voters, voted for him in 2000. We believe he should be our President today. He may have little sway in D.C. Democratic establishment circles, but Al Gore is an icon to the Democratic primary voters across America. And this is the point. Al Gore may have been shut out of Washington D.C establishment, but he's smart enough to know that he has a following among the Democratic rank and file. And he's using it. Because unless Howard Dean manages to lose the Democratic nomination (something I see as highly unlikely) it's a win-win situation for Al Gore. Sure, he pisses off Joe Lieberman, John Kerry, Dick Gephardt, etc., but that's irrelevent. If Dean beats Bush next November, Al Gore was the kingmaker. Heck, even if he doesn't he's the kingmaker and he'll get credit for Dean's nomination and people will pay attention when he speaks. If Dean wins, Gore can be wherever he wants. If he wants to be Secretary of State, or anything else, it's his. Then if Dean loses to Bush, Gore wins, too. Gore can inherit Dean's support and set himself up to be the Democratic nominee in 2008. Yeah, Hillary may run, and she'd be formidable, but by endorsing Dean, Gore gives himself a base that could counter Hillary's. The only downside for endorsing Dean is if Dean doesn't win the Democratic nomination, and that's very unlikely. Gore's a smart guy, and he's done what's in his best political interest. Posted by Byron LaMasters at December 9, 2003 02:43 AM | TrackBack
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Looking at this on a more personel level, I think that Al Gore has decided to abandon ambition and assume the role of a plain speaking contrarian. Perhaps he now sees himself as a more partisan version of Democratic elder statesman Jimmy Carter. If Dean gets the nomination and upsets Bush, Gore would certainly have Dean's ear on policy matters. But the two are broadly in agreement anyway. And just which job would Gore want in a hypothetical Dean administration? When you've spent eight years in the nation's number two office and got within a micron of becoming president, wouldn't EPA director look a little downscale? If Dean gets the nomination and does as poorly as Karl Rove hopes he does next November, it won't enhance Gore's stature to have backed a loser early on. And if Dean loses big, nobody will be shopping around for his supporters any more than major Democratic politicians courted the McGovern zealots after the 1972 debacle. After the Bay of Pigs, John F. Kennedy declared, "victory has 100 fathers and defeat is an orphan." In the event of a Dean defeat, the Democratic Party would look for new and "untainted" talent as it did in 1976. When Al Gore decided not to seek the presidency a year ago, I think he made a major lifestyle change, not just a career move. Setting aside the myriad of long-term ramifications of Gore's endorsement, I will be very curious and more than a little excited to see how this will shake things out down the stretch to the primaries. I believe that one of two scenarios will prevail. First, the Democratic field will narrow dramatically with more support going to Dean who, with this endorsement, can now begin to legitimately claim to be the eventual winner and start to woo other candidates into his camp. Second, the Democratic field will narrow some and two factions will emerge: The Dean Faction and the Clark Faction. If the "DLC centrist" candidates form up behind Clark then this could be one hell of a primary season. Posted by: Patrick at December 9, 2003 09:39 AM
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