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October 08, 2003

First Impressions from the Recall

By Andrew Dobbs

First, I think that the presence of several members of the Kennedy family, particularly Sargent Shriver- George McGovern's 1972 running mate- on the same stage as the newly elected GOP governor of California is a sign that the apocalypse is upon us. I swear to God, if any child of mine marries a Republican politician I'll love them I suppose but there will be no standing on any stage as an elected member of that party on election night damnit.

Secondly Arnold can begin his tenure with the distinct lack of any sort of mandate. According to the California Secretary of State's website at 6:06 AM (I'm pulling an all-nighter for a history test) with 95.4% of the precincts reporting 3,406,346 Californians voted "No" on the Recall portion while only 3,397,505 voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger. Essentially, more Californians wanted Gray Davis than any of the replacement candidates, including the eventual winner Arnold Schwarzenegger. It's clear that the GOP wet dreams of a Republican California were premature at best- in a head to head race between Davis and Arnold, Davis wins.

Thirdly, Bustamante's gubenatorial aspirations are dashed for 2006 as well I'd say. Being able to muster a pathetic 32.7% of the vote in the most Democratic state in the country as the only major Dem on the ballot is a sign that most Dems in the state don't really care for the guy and nobody likes voting for a loser. I'd expect Attorney General Bill Lockyer or Hollywood star Rob Reiner- both almost certainly candidates- to get the nom and take on Arnold. After 3 years of being wholly unable to do anything with a Dem legislature we should regain this seat.

Fourthly, Californians love their nutrition. In addition to the bodybuilder governor-elect the highest ranking "nobody" on the ballot was San Diego businessman George B. Schwartzman, who's only real issue I could find concerned removing softdrinks from public schools. The independent recieved more than 10,000 votes and placed just below former child star Gary Coleman and just above adult film star Mary "Mary Carey" Cook. This guy will be able to tell people for years that he placed 9th in a field of 135 for governor. That and 99 cents will buy him a cup of coffee at 7-11.

Finally, California's system of recalls, referenda and other direct democracy institutions ought to send the rest of us running to our Federalist Papers. There was a reason that we didn't institute direct democracy in the states- it leads to demagoguery and inflamed passionate decisions devoid of reason. Like voting for a drug-abusing, Hitler-loving, sexually assaulting bad actor and former bodybuilder for Governor of the most populous state. I would discourage all Recall attempts on Schwarzenegger, we must defeat our opponents the right way, the real way.

Posted by Andrew Dobbs at October 8, 2003 06:23 AM | TrackBack

Comments

There was a reason that we didn't institute direct democracy in the states- it leads to demagoguery and inflamed passionate decisions devoid of reason.

Snort! I await your next diatribe calling for the dismantling of the "undemocratic" Electoral College, Mr. Hamilton.

Meanwhile, all of the Progressives who invented referendum and recall in the early 20th century, and who later were absorbed into the Democrat Party, are rolling in their graves at your post.

Posted by: Mark Harden at October 8, 2003 07:28 AM

Hey - what's moveon.org gonna do with all that extra money they collected for their slime commercials? Oh, they told you they spent it all? Ooookay.

Posted by: Mark Harden at October 8, 2003 07:32 AM

I'm guessing Schwartzman got a lot of "Florida" votes by people intending to vote for Schwarzenegger...

Posted by: Jason Young at October 8, 2003 08:12 AM

Everyone loves a backup quarterback, right? Well, it will be interesting to see how Schwarzenegger does now that he is California's starting quarterback, eh? Rotsa ruck....

Posted by: Jack Cluth at October 8, 2003 09:46 AM

Now don't go nuts on us -- California is far from "the most democratic state in the country". Here's a Bush/Gore tally from 2000, in reverse Bush order:

STATE BUSH GORE NADER
DC 9 85 5
RI 32 61 6
MA 33 60 6
NY 35 60 4
HI 37 56 6
CT 39 55 4
MD 40 57 3
NJ 40 56 3
CA 41 54 4
VT 41 51 7
DE 42 55 3
IL 43 54 2
ME 44 49 6
WA 45 50 4
MI 46 51 2
MN 46 48 5
PA 46 51 2
OR 47 47 5
IA 48 49 2
NH 48 47 4
NM 48 48 4
WI 48 48 4
FL 49 49 1
AZ 50 45 3
MO 50 47 2
NV 50 46 2
OH 50 46 3
AR 51 46 1
CO 51 42 5
TN 51 47 1
VA 52 45 2
WV 52 46 2
LA 53 45 1
GA 55 43 1
AL 56 42 1
KY 56 41 1
NC 56 43 0
IN 57 41 0
SC 57 41 1
KS 58 37 3
MS 58 41 1
MT 58 33 6
AK 59 28 10
TX 59 38 2
OK 60 38 1
SD 60 38 0
ND 61 33 3
NE 63 33 4
UT 67 26 5
ID 68 28 1
WY 69 28 0

So CA was around #8.

Posted by: Tom McDonald at October 8, 2003 09:51 AM

Mark, that's "Democratic" Party, unless you really wish to be identified with Sen. Joseph McCarthy, who popularized your usage over the objections even of many Republicans. Oh, wait, maybe you really would like people to equate you with him...

Posted by: Steve Bates at October 8, 2003 11:06 AM

Let's put the origins of the progressive reforms into historical perspective.

First, there was the arguably naive belief that was rather widespread at the turn of the century that people could progress--socially and politically as well as technologically. In many respects, it's an idea that is rooted in the rationalism and ideals expressed by the founding fathers. These reforms reflect that belief.

Second, even though cleaned up in places, the political machines and graft were still a palatable concern for people. What better to remove legislation that was deemed wrong, when the politicians themselves were corrupt?

This recall pointed to a couple of problems.

1) Should there be at least some minimal charge or proof of improper behavior before proceeding with a recall?

2) There just wasn't sufficient time to really debate the issues.

3) Is there an alternative to a plurality vote? The votes and issues were diluted by the sheer number of candidates, even though the media filtered for us. (Oh, thank you.) Frankly, I think the claim that Davis would defeat Arnie head-on based on yesterday's vote tallies a bit of a stretch of logic.

This is an example of an abuse, in my opinion, of what is a good thing.

Posted by: Tx Bubba at October 8, 2003 11:25 AM

I a head to head matchup between Davis and the Terminator, Davis wins? Um, who do you think the 13% of the electorate who voted for McClintock would pick in that election? Not Davis. Yes, Schwarzenegger only got a few more votes than the "No" on the recall did, but Schwarzenegger and McClintock's combined share of the vote exceeded 60%. It's quite a stretch to say that Davis could have won a one on one matchup.

Posted by: Sherk at October 8, 2003 11:27 AM

Hate to burst your bubble, because I'm on your side, but the outstanding returns were/are from Orange, El Dorado, and San Bernardino counties. Votes for Schwartzenegger now outnumber votes against recall by around 100K.

We had crappy candidates and a crappy strategy. Not surprising we had our asses handed to us.

Posted by: BTP at October 8, 2003 11:51 AM

Yeah, i posted that at 6 in the morning of my second straight all-night study session so I was a little on the delirious side. Most of what I said was true but its pretty clear that

1. "No" votes will be fewer than Arnold's votes
2. Schwartzman benefitted from having a very Arnold like name so you could probably add a few thousand of those onto Gov. Terminator's total
3. The progressives of the turn of the century were wrong about a lot of things Mark. Including direct democracy.

I'll post again later i'm sure.

Posted by: Andrew D at October 8, 2003 01:17 PM

It's quite a stretch to say that Davis could have won a one on one matchup.

Also, you cannot simply equate a vote against recall as a vote FOR Davis. Many of them were votes AGAINST having a recall at all.

Posted by: Mark Harden at October 8, 2003 01:45 PM

Darn, I hate it when I agree with you, Mark! ;-) But I think it is likely you are right in this case, and that many people voted against recall because they believe in representative government, to the extent that the results of legitimate elections should stand for the full term of office, absent clear malfeasance by the officeholder. Gray Davis is hardly a sympathetic figure, as most people across the political spectrum would likely agree. But his ouster from office after 11 months is an assault against the whole notion of representative government by elected officials, and I don't doubt for a moment that more than a few traditional Republicans were troubled by that, and voted against recall. (Bush backers, on the other hand, probably had no such qualms: power is all that matters to them.)

I believe that Arnold's installation was in accordance with the laws of California (which, according to ABC News tonight, contain the loosest standards for recall in the nation), and I think that recalling Arnold is probably a bad idea (again, absent clear malfeasance). But I also think Pandora's box has been opened. Cover your faces, R's and D's alike; here comes the s**tstorm...

Posted by: Steve Bates at October 9, 2003 12:51 AM
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