Burnt Orange Report

Off Year Elections and What they Mean

By Andrew Dobbs

Alright, so everybody seems to be all tied up on the California Recall and the 2004 Presidential race, but there are 4 other elections in the very near future that will be indications of how well Democrats can expect to do in 2004 and what messages might work for us.

First, on September 9 Alabama voters go to the polls to vote on whether or not to raise their own taxes. Funny thing is, the conservative Republican governor- Bob Riley- is the man pushing this tax hike. If this ballot measure passes, even in right-wing Alabama, it will suggest that people are valuing services over cost at this point. If a tax raise can be passed in Alabama then a strong anti-tax cut message can work all over the country.

Secondly, on September 13 Texas votes on constitutional amendments. Usually a dull affair with little importance there will be one hitch this year. Proposition 12 is a ballot line that empowers the legislature to go through with tort reform. They probably don't need constitutional authorization to do it anyways, this is a CYA affair, but it doesn't matter as it will almost certainly pass very easily. Having worked for a legislator this year the calls and letters were easily 10 to 1 in favor of tort reform because doctors have convinced their patients it is a good thing. Problem is it doesn't only affect doctors: anybody who wants to sue anybody for any reason will face more of a challenge now as the law is rigged against plaintiffs and in favor of big businesses. If by some chance this were to fail it would be a significant message of opposition to the Texas GOP but there seems to be little to no active opposition so we can bet that the Texas Dems won't use this as a referendum on Perry's sliding popularity. Another opportunity wasted...

Thirdly, on October 4 is the Louisiana governor's election. In Louisiana they don't have primaries- all the Republicans and all the Democrats run at once and if no one gets a majority the top two vote getters have a runoff. In Louisiana the Democrats have at least 2 very strong candidates- current Lt. Gov Kathleen Blanco and long time AG Richard Ieyoub. The best thing going for the GOP is Bobby Jindal- a 31 year old former Bush administration official with the support of 3-term GOP governor Mike Foster and most of the Bush machine. He might not even make it into second place. Right now Blanco has a healthy lead of about 6-10 points but after that it is a dead heat between Ieyoub and Jindal with one-time congressman Buddy Leach and former state Senate President Randy Ewing (both Democrats) close behind. If the runoff is between two Democrats it will signal to the rest of the country that even a state where Bush is popular won't just swallow his word hook, line and sinker. Democrats will be encouraged to go to not only tossup states, but states where Bush is expected to win but isn't overwhelmingly popular- Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Tenneseee, Ohio, West Virginia, Arizona, Nevada and Florida to name a few.

Next comes the California Recall on October 7. I think that there is a lot out there about this already, but basically we'll find out if budget mismanagement and cockamamied energy policies are enough of a reason to kick someone out of office. Here's hoping, as the chief executive of all the United States has shown incompetence in these matters on a scale that dwarfs any mere governor.

Finally we have election day on November 4 which will include the Louisiana runoff and statewide races in Kentucky and Mississippi.

In Kentucky I think that the Democrats should already be perking up. Bush easily won KY in 2000, and he has a 70% approval rating there. The Democratic incumbent governor has been plagued with scandal. Even with a two term AG running as the Democrats' nominee there is no reason he should be even close to the lead. Add into this that he is running a staunchly anti-Bush campaign. He should be pissing off at least 70% of the people in his state, but Democrat Ben Chandler is running even or only a point or two behind GOP Congressman Ernie Fletcher. He has a bold proposal to create 100,000 jobs before his first term is up. If an aggressive message and grand vision can keep us even in a state where Democrats are in shambles and Bush is king then why wouldn't it win us Minnesota, Missouri, Arkansas or any of the other states we need to win in 2004? The answer is it will and electrifying the base and giving people the truth is the answer to Bush's not-so-great-anymore numbers.

In Mississippi former RNC chair Haley Barbour is running against Democratic incumbent Ronnie Musgrove. Barbour hasn't been in MS in years and is known for his national fundraising base. Interestingly enough though, Musgrove is keeping a tie going and even nudging ahead of Barbour in the money race. No polls have been conducted recently but the Democratic primary saw more than twice as many voters as the GOP primary, even though neither candidate had serious challengers. Down ballot races for the Dems were better than the GOP, which would explain some of the advantage, but if a national Republican with lots of money can't win in Mississippi then why should Bush win in close states? The answer is he shouldn't.

If these races turn out as they appear they might- with a Dem victory in all three states and a new Governor in CA (Cruz Bustamante perhaps), it will suggest that the Democrats need to stand tall, speak with conviction and challenge Bush everywhere but the most surley Republican states (Texas, South Carolina, Wyoming, etc.). At the very least it will keep us tided over until January when the primaries begin.