Burnt Orange Report

Redistricting Committee Meeting Yesterday

By Byron LaMasters

The Appalachia Alumni Association blog gives a good overview of yesterday's committee hearing in Austin. So does Charles Kuffner on Political State Report. The hearing began late, around 8 PM. There was a large crowd, and I believe that they had to switch rooms to accomodate everyone. Rep. Raymond (D-Laredo) immidiately called the map a fake map, in that it would be changed multiple times before a vote would be called. Rep. McClendon (D-San Antonio) said that the map divided the minority communities in Fort Worth, Waco and Beaumont. Rep. McReynolds (D-Lufkin) testified before the committee to say that the map gutted rural Texas. He complained that the water and timber interests of rural east Texas counties would come into conflict with the suburban interests of the congressmen that would likely represent them in the new map. Rep. Dunnam (D-Waco) called the map racist in the way that it divided Waco along the Brazos river, a historical racial dividing line. He said that Waco's senator Sen. Kip Averitt (R-Waco) would vote against that map, or he would not win re-election. The meetings lasted 8 hours, going until approximately 4 AM. I haven't listened to all of the tapes, and don't plan to, but that's a good overview.

The map, in effect, targets Reps. Frost, Stenholm, Turner, Sandlin and Lampson. The map pairs Frost and Barton in an Ellis / Tarrant County seat that favors Barton. It pairs Neugebauer and Stenholm in a Lubbock based seat favoring Neugebauer. It pairs Bell and Culberson in a district favoring Culberson. It pairs Brady and Lampson in a Montgomery County based seat favoring Brady. It pairs Edwards and Carter in a Williamson County based seat favoring Carter. It pairs Jackson Lee and Green in Jackson Lee's 18th district seat. Turner is placed in a new district 1 that is dominated by suburban Houston. Sandlin is placed in a new district 2 that is dominated by Tyler - Longview. Doggett's district 10 is left alone. The new 24th district is drawn with Kenny Marchant in mind, based in Carrollton (northwest Dallas County). Still, the district is over 40% Hispanic and it would not be a sure thing for Marchant in my opinion. The new 17th is drawn with Arlene Wohlgemuth in mind. The new 11th would be a new Midland - Odessa based open-seat possibly with Speaker Craddick in mind.

So, playing the game of speculation, what would happen if these maps went into effect? Well, first off, Chris Bell could move back into the 25th and win easily. Ron Wilson's house district is now in the 25th, but he would have little support in a primary for the seat. I would expect Nick Lampson to move to run in district 9, which would still be an uphill fight. I would expect Gene Green to move back into the Hispanic-majority 29th, and win. Stenholm has said that he would run against Neugebauer if he were paired against him. Stenholm would run, but I don't see him having a chance in hell. Sandlin and Turner would probably run uphill fights in their districts. Edwards wouldn't have a chance in hell to run against for Congress under this map. I wouldn't be surprised to see him challenge State Sen. Kip Averitt (R-Waco) if Averitt votes for the redistricting map dividing Waco. Even if he wouldn't run, it would be a good threat for Edwards to make, either publically or privately. Finally, the new 24th would probably lure Martin Frost to move back into Dallas County and run against Kenny Marchant. This would be a very interesting race, should it happen. The new 24th would be 8% Black and 47% Hispanic, and based on 2002 numbers is about 56% Republican, as most of the Hispanics in the district are not citizens, not registered, or are not yet of voting age. If this map were passed, Republicans can forget about winning any countywide races in Dallas County in 2004. Martin Frost would likely organize the Hispanics in that district, register them, and turn them out in a way never done before. I'd almost look forward to it.

Anyway, here's the map again.