Burnt Orange Report

Arnold Says Hasta La Vista, Riordan Gets Ready

By Andrew Dobbs

So, the California Insider says that Arnold will not run for Governor, Fox News (I hope you'll understand my not linking to this particular "news" outlet) dittos. Richard Riordan, the moderate Republican former mayor of LA who would have beat Gray Davis in 2002 had Davis not outsmarted him by killing him off during the GOP primary, will almost certainly run now.

Darrell Issa, Tom McClintock and Mike Huffington who I misidentified as a former Gubenatorial candidate (he ran for Senate) and converted Democrat (he's still a Republican despite being gay) are all running. With Riordan in the race we will have to solid conservatives in Issa and McClintock and two moderates in Huffington and Riordan. Bill Simon is likely to run as well and he will be a third conservative. No Democrats are running and Peter Camejo is running for the Green Party.

In a situation with 5 Republicans, including a split for moderates and a split for conservatives, with no Dems and a Green, there is a chance that Green Party candidate Peter Camejo could end up winning the second half of the ballot and if enough Republicans show up to pass the first line, Green Party Gubenatorial candidate and former Socialist Workers Party Presidential Candidate Peter Camejo could end up as chief executive of the world's fifth largest economy. You think there's a fiscal crisis now? Things are about to get very interesting.

Earlier in one of the comments sections Byron asked which would be worse, Camejo or Riordan replacing Davis. The fact of the matter is that I suspect that Davis will remain in office, but I believe that Camejo would do less damage. California Repulicans are in such disarray that the only hope they have of winning a race is to have a fanatic bankroll a recall of the Democratic governor. Having a Republican in that office would give them the visibility, the leadership and the organization to rebuild and provide a real challenge for Democrats in 2004 and 2006. I don't think that Bush can win California, but I do think that Riordan's victory could provide the infrastructure to create a real challege for the assembly, senate and some congressional seats- all of which are crucial. This could lay the foundation for a GOP California by 2008. A Riordan victory gives a major party that has been struggling a much needed shot in the arm.

A Camejo election on the other hand would be a huge victory for the Greens but I'm not sure that the California GOP has the ability to capitalize on this. A small number of Green candidates will be much stronger than they have in the past, but the GOP is still disorganized enough that they can't take advantage of this change. Additionally, areas where the Greens will do very well are either so liberal the GOP can't win there anyways or so conservative that no Dems run there in the first place. I suspect that a few Assembly seats might go the Greens' way, but they will most likely side with the Democrats anyways so it will work out in the end. Will there be a few places where an invigorated Green leaches votes away from a weak Dem and gives the seat to a Republican? Probably, but I think this is less dangerous than Republicans winning these races without any help. The Dems will remain strong no matter the outcome, at least in the short term. Would we rather them paired with a strong GOP and stronger Green Party or a strong Green Party and weak GOP? The latter is clearly better.

The answer to these problems is to put a Democrat on the ticket. Leon Panetta, Cruz Bustamante or Diane Feinstein could all run anti-recall campaigns telling voters to stand against the right-wing coup attempt but to cast their votes for a Democrat just in case. If Panetta or Bustamante are on the ballot, it'll be a tough fight. If Feinstein is anywhere on it Davis is gone and she becomes Governor- not a bad scenario. The Dems need to get their house in order or we face a very weird 3 years in the Golden State.