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TDP Chair Election- Poll of Delegates!

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman on Fri May 26, 2006 at 22:38:24 PM CDT

I just got in from the annual MaiFest fish fry fundraiser for my alma mater, St. Mary's School Class of '99 (8th grade).  Didn't win any prizes again this year on the paddle wheel, but meeting old friends, teachers, and seeing the new buildings are a sight for sore eyes (as I just read the comments on that last TDP thread).

So seeing how 'spirited' the debate (and our traffic) gets, here's a couple more posts for everyone to digest- poll results showing Maxey nearly half the way to the all important 51% marker, with a 2-1 lead among delegates who have made up their mind. (And yes, I fully expect someone to dig up some comment of mine about Bell beating Gammage 2-1 in the one primary poll from February that shows 60% of voters undecided like this one.  Of course, Bell is now our nominee.)

Last week, you may have been contacted by a research firm hired by the Glen Maxey Campaign to conduct a phone survey of delegates. Among delegates that have made up their mind, Glen Maxey is firmly in the lead. However, the majority of delegates remain undecided. Both Maxey and Richie begin the race with a sizable base. Glen Maxey's base is larger, and he leads in all urban areas and most rural parts of Texas.

LSI Phone Survey N=1168
Maxey 24.9%
Richie 13.4%
Jones 2.6%
Und 59.1%

Lakesha Rogers (the LaRouche lady) was not included in the poll, but seeing as how Jones came in with less than 3% I don't think we need to worry too much about her exclusion. It should be noted that each Senate District casts its full delegation vote regardless if 250 delegates show up in Forth Worth or 15 (a South Texas Senate District only has 38 out of over 150 even filled, with less coming), which makes polling percentages fuzzy.

But at least these numbers are only of actual delegates and as was claimed by Maxey as a fundraiser yesterday evening his "strongest support is in rural areas". From my own experience two years ago, many rural counties are lucky to send even 1-2 delegates, and those are often the County Chairs.

Excluding the impossible to predict convention math, the following are the percentages each candidate would need to win of the remaining undecided poll to win election as chairman assuming that those already declared don't switch sides.

Maxey: 42%
Richie: 62%
Jones: 80%

If Urbina-Jones' support went to Maxey in the final vote (based solely on rumors and the fact that Jones' message is quite reformist in nature), Maxey would only need 38% of the undecided vote to Richie's 62%.  Still, the variable factor of Senate District weighted voting makes any straight up poll only helpful to a certain point. Thoughts? Other calculations?

Be civil, argue if you must, but refrain from name calling- I will support users zero-ing out comments from any side even if there some good content if your title or opening remark is caustic, accusatory, or inflammatory.
Tags: State Party Chair, Charlie Urbina-Jones, Glen Maxey, Boyd Richie, TDP, (All Tags)

TDP Chair Election- Poll of Delegates! | 27 comments | Time to post comments expired.
Flip a coin at this point... (0.00 / 0)
thats the best you can tell of what will happen 2 weeks from now.
by: Morter Forker @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 00:34:19 AM CDT
[ Reply ]
somewhat yes.
But if it is to be a coin flip, you could say that it is a weighted one. :) Believe me, the poll results were as suprising to me as I think they are to others (the outfit didn't identify it was from any candidate, so the raw data should at least be accurate). As to the multiplication math, that is another thing.

Yes, but what would Treaty Oak have to say about it?
by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 00:43:38 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
I am not so sure...
I think maxey supporters tend to be younger and more open about their support of a candidate.  I think this may come down to the difference in demos.  One thing ive always found is younger people in the party are much more open and passionate about their support of any figure, while the older backbone of the party isnt quite so passionate about their support.
by: Morter Forker @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 00:54:39 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
young support
Well I think we both agree that the younger vote is for Maxey right now. Personally, I know of 15 UDems delegates from UT that are going, all for Maxey, which is similar with other college dem chapters in other parts of the state which were coordinated for the first time to go to the convention this year in advance of the precinct caucuses. At the same time, I don't see their votes really switching seeing as their support of Maxey was why they became delegates to begin with.

I'll be out in Marble Falls tomorrow at the Bring Back Balance rally. If you are anyone else is out there, come say hello.

Yes, but what would Treaty Oak have to say about it?

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 00:58:26 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
Young Folks Surveyed
I help Glen on his campaign and worked on this project.  For context, the survey firm almost uniformly did not call cell phone numbers.  Most younger people don't have land lines.  Younger delegates are under-represented in the data.

"God Bless Texas"
by: Rick Cofer @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 01:43:57 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
Then why were youngins on DU...
saying they were getting calls?
by: Morter Forker @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 02:36:18 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
Probably a couple reasons:  If someone listed a cell number in the home phone column instead of in the cell phone column they may have been touched.  Or if a young person listed a home phone and was called at that number.  Some young people were phoned; they were, however, under-represented because of the cell phone issue.

"God Bless Texas"
by: Rick Cofer @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 06:43:13 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
Not everyone on DU is a youngin
Some of us are old enough to buy beer and everything.
by: Dave In A Cave @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 21:37:18 PM CDT
[ Parent ]
I have a cell phone...
and that what they called. They called whatever contact number you put down when you filled out the Delegate sheet.
by: Matthew D. @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 12:19:55 PM CDT
[ Parent ]
voter file...
my guess is that whatever number is on the voter file is the one that was called by this survey.  Cell phones generally aren't on voter files.  I only have a cell phone, I'm a delegate, I didn't get a call, and my number isn't listed on the voter file.
by: Byron LaMasters @ Mon May 29, 2006 at 17:21:57 PM CDT
[ Parent ]
Incorrect Byron.  I actually told the vendor specifically not to call you because you don't love us anymore and we've been crying ourselves to sleep about it.

Will you be in Fort Worth so we catch up over a beverage?  My treat.

"God Bless Texas"

by: Rick Cofer @ Mon May 29, 2006 at 18:25:31 PM CDT
[ Parent ]
not so true
The two events that I attended today, which I just blogged about in the journals section, had the majority of people aged probably 40-60 and even higher. One woman who attended both was 89 years old. So as what you said is partially true, it does not mean Maxey does not have support of older people in the party.

Endorsed by marshmallow peeps
by: John McClelland @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 21:44:56 PM CDT
[ Parent ]
I don't think this is a "passion" issue so much as a "holding your cards close to your chest" issue. 

I think older party members understand how leadership elections are done, and the notion of coming out publically for a candidate--and therefore publically against the other guy--isn't always politically prudent.

by: demdog @ Mon May 29, 2006 at 09:53:09 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
actually id love to see an internal breakdown of the poll... (0.00 / 0)
maybe by age, ethnicity, region.  et al?
by: Morter Forker @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 00:55:19 AM CDT
[ Reply ]
The poll only asked two question that I remember. 1) If I was going and 2) question on TDP chairman race. I don't think any candidate would be wise to spend a bunch more money on a poll beyond that, as the rest of the info isn't really critical to getting elected.

But if someone from the Maxey campaign has that info and wants to share it, I'm sure we'll see it here if anywhere.

Yes, but what would Treaty Oak have to say about it?

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 01:01:25 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
You are right, but...
the maxey campaign already has all that info before they call the person.
by: Morter Forker @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 01:04:05 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
i would assume so
Or at least what was checked off in all those boxes on the precinct delegate forms, though there is no saying in what form data from 254 counties (minus the what, 9 counties that didn't have a primary?) got back to the TDP HQ in Austin.

So it didn't have to be in the poll, but what data there is, would be from self ID.

Yes, but what would Treaty Oak have to say about it?

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 01:07:35 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
Yes, but then all you have to do...
is plug those names into any number of dem primary voting databases and bam, you got the persons age and ethnicity.
by: Morter Forker @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 01:12:04 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
What I have found interesting though was the fact I never got one of those calls...
and only got a mail out from richie.  I found that odd.
by: Morter Forker @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 01:13:05 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
you may have missed it
It wouldn't have left a message for you or anything. The number of respondents suggests that not every delegate picked up the phone either.

Take it for what it is. The sample size is over 25% of the pool of voters.

Yes, but what would Treaty Oak have to say about it?

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 01:26:12 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
Well I dont answer unknown numbers...
and I have a cell.  So that answers that.
by: Morter Forker @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 02:34:49 AM CDT
[ Parent ]
Cell phone (0.00 / 0)
As a delegate I posted both my home phone and my cell phone in the appropriate columns, never got a call on my home phone, but did on my cell phone, also I got a slick mailer from the Maxey campaign yesterday, it still didn't change my mind... tom
by: maddoggli @ Sat May 27, 2006 at 16:09:14 PM CDT
[ Reply ]
Having heard all 3 speak (0.00 / 0)
I am supporting Maxy even more now than before. 

Glen Maxey For Texas Democrat

Doing My Part for the Left,Left Of The Rainbow

by: refinish69 @ Sun May 28, 2006 at 07:43:42 AM CDT
[ Reply ]
A survey, not a poll (1.00 / 1)
This is not even remotely significant from a statistical perspective.  It is vote counting, plain and simple -- and that is not a put-down.  In a convention, counting votes means more than anything.  And the TDP Chair election will be the only significant election that Texas Democrats get to decide for the next two to four years, so have fun while you can. 
by: Wanderer @ Sun May 28, 2006 at 22:07:12 PM CDT
[ Reply ]
Dems Will Decide A Lot
Democrats can make a big impact in a lot of races.

The district courts are up for grabs in Dallas.  A big Democratic turnout will make the difference.

Democrats can play a huge role in several state representative races.

Who knows how many county level races we can play a role in.

We have work to do that's frankly more important than who the next party chair is.

by: El Jefe @ Mon May 29, 2006 at 12:34:02 PM CDT
[ Parent ]
What are you doing to win those races?
Do you believe the TDP has a positive role to play in Texas Democratic politics?  If so, why don't you think that who is Chair of the party matters?

Do you have a financial interest in the outcome of the chair's race?

by: American Idolizer @ Mon May 29, 2006 at 16:39:18 PM CDT
[ Parent ]
A poll of the chairs would be useful (0.00 / 0)
In SD-11 the chair supports Richey and feels the party needs to be careful about going too far to the left.  He sways a lot of votes and is a master of parliamentary procedure and meeting politics.

More moderate Democrats are still good Democrats but I would like to see a Maxey win as a sign of the populist takeover. A compromise where Maxey is appointed to a Democratic campaign leadership position would also work.

In Top 5 on Google for Liberal News

by: Gary Denton @ Mon May 29, 2006 at 14:32:08 PM CDT
[ Reply ]
TDP Chair Election- Poll of Delegates! | 27 comments | Time to post comments expired.
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