Comments: Byron's Predictions

Congress:

Sandlin 52 Gohmert 47 (+5 Sandlin)
Lampson 50 Poe 48 (+2 Lampson)
Frost 51 Sessions 48 (+3 Frost)
Edwards 52 Wohlgemuth 47 (+5 Edwards)
Neugebauer 55 Stenholm 43 (+12 Neugebauer)
DeLay 47 Morrison 45 Fjetland 8 (+2 DeLay)

State House:

D Pickups- White, Strama, Vo, Glaze, Liebowitz, Hubener
R Pickups- Anderson, Frost

(+4 Democrats)

Can you say Speaker Goodman?

Posted by Andrew D at October 28, 2004 05:19 PM

The chance of a Democratic pick-up is just as high for District 48 as District 50. Todd Baxter's internal poll numbers must have him scared shitless, because he's gone so negative against Kelly in recent days. And I hear tell that an independent poll shows the race narrowed to within a percentage point.

One think to keep in mind: Kelly and TB have launched large scale television and mail-out campaigns, but Kelly's people have a huge advantage in field work, having been running a large-scale phone banking and block-walking operation for months now. Baxter's field campaign has never really amounted to much.

Posted by Monk of Miletus at October 28, 2004 05:26 PM

Kerry: 311 49%
Bush: 226 (with one West Virginia Republican elector not voting for W) 48%

Call me optimistic, but with first time voters and cell phone only users going strongly for Kerry, I'm expecting Kerry to gain at least 2-3 points more than the polls suggest.

Gore states + NH, OH, and FL (we WILL win Florida, damnit! Just like last time. If they count all the votes...). Potential surprises could come from NV, CO, IA, WI, AR, FL, and WV.

Castor 51.5
Martinez 48.5

Ros-Lehtinen (R 18) will beat Sheldon (D) by 15 points. At least we'll keep a huge GLBT ally in the GOP.

Byron, thanks for the shout-out.

Posted by Chris at October 28, 2004 05:36 PM

Regarding the White / Baxter race, a few comments.

First, Republicans I've spoken with in Austin are much more confident about Baxter than they are of Stick. Also, 48 is a few points more Republican than 50 is, and I think that Strama has run a slightly better campaign.

Another thing, is that while I don't know Todd Baxter, many people that have met him say he's a generally likable guy, even if they don't agree with him on the issues. On the other hand, people don't like Stick's policies, nor does he have the Austin roots that Baxter does - so he has less of a personal connection with people than Baxter.

Posted by Byron L at October 28, 2004 05:36 PM

Byron,

You're right about 48 being slightly more Republican than 50, but I don't think it's enough to be decisive. Besides, Kelly more than makes up for this by her personal and social connections to the people in critical parts of the district (Westlake in particular). Her wife, Bill McLellan, also knows just about everyone there is to know in the business community of West Austin, which ordinarily might be sympathetic to Baxter. Whatever roots Baxter has in the district, Kelly has more and deeper ones.

As for Baxter being a likeable guy, the Statesman story about his wife calling Kelly a "lying male-hating liberal" really soured a lot of people. The Kelly campaign got a lot of calls for yards signs that day, including from Baxter's neighbor across the street who had been the subject of Mrs. Baxter's angry wraith.

Posted by Monk of Miletus at October 28, 2004 05:42 PM

Congress:

Sandlin 50 Gohmert 49 (+1 Sandlin)
Lampson 47 Poe 52 (+5 Poe)
Frost 49 Sessions 50 (+1 Sessions) (Oh please, Lord, let me be wrong)
Edwards 54 Wohlgemuth 45 (+9 Edwards) (I've worked around Arlene and relish her performing worst of the "Texas 5" Rs...)
Neugebauer 56 Stenholm 43 (+13 Neugebauer) (a real shame)
DeLay 51 Morrison 43 Fjetland 6 (+8 DeLay) (another shame...)

State House:

D Pickups- Strama only
R Pickups- Anderson only

Posted by Joel Burns at October 28, 2004 06:05 PM

Frost over Sessions

Kerry 54% & 325 of college

Posted by Don Quixote at October 28, 2004 07:15 PM

Congress:

Sandlin 53 Gohmert 47 (+6)
Lampson 50 Poe 49 (+1) (Republican crossover vote, or else Beaumont loses a Congressman)
Edwards 55 Wohlgemuth 45 (+10)
Neugebauer 60 Stenholm 40 (+20)
DeLay 50 Morrison 45 (+5)
Frost 50.1 Sessions 49.9 (+.2)

State House

Democratic pickups: Glaze, Peveto, White, Strama, Miller, Hubener, Leibowitz, Dougherty, Vo.
Republican pickups: none.

Why be cautious?

Posted by Jacob M. at October 28, 2004 07:45 PM

I love reading about Texas politics from you guys even though i'm a Republican out here in Southern CAlifornia. I'll let everyone in Texas in on a little secret. Look for David Dreier, the chairman of the powerfull house rules committee to go down in defeat because of his poor record on illegal immigration. In his last desperate act, the NRCC has filed a complaint with the toothless FEC to try to shut John & Ken of KFI radio up.
As far as your Texas congressional races, I think the GOP will sweep every race save for Chet Edwards.

Posted by Allan Bartlett at October 28, 2004 08:37 PM

Trying to be objective:

Bush, 296 EV, 50.5%

Posted by Blue at October 28, 2004 10:31 PM

BUT D's will net two in the Senate and take over the body (D pickups--IL, CO, KY and an R pickup in GA)

Posted by Blue at October 28, 2004 10:32 PM

President:
Kerry 327, Bush 211
Kerry 50, Bush 48, Badnark 1, Nader .8

Congress:
Frost 50, Sessions 48
Edwards 53, Wohgelmuth 46
Neugebauer 57, Stenholm 42
Poe 51, Lampson 48
Sandlin 52, Gohmert 47

State House:
Dem pick ups -
Strama
White
Leibowitz

No GOP pick ups in the state house.

US Senate
Dems take control 50-49-1.

Posted by David at October 28, 2004 10:40 PM

OK, throwing my cap into the ring...

Presidential Election

I hope I'm right about the winner, but wrong about how it happens.

Kerry sweeps the upper Midwest (MN, IA, WI, MI), wins New Hampshire and New Mexico and squeaks by in Ohio by about 1.5%. Early results show Kerry wins Florida, but by less than half a percent. The results in Ohio and Florida head to court. To "avoid the confusion" of 2000, Jeb calls the Florida Lege into special session and the heavily Repukeagain Lege votes to give Bush Florida's slate a 27 electors and riots occur in Democratic areas. The recount gives Kerry the win, but Jeb asserts that the Lege has used it power under Article II of the US Constitution to choose Florida's electors. The Florida Supreme Court rules against him finding that the Lege chose the method of elector selection in drafting the Florida Constitution and cannot alter the method without amendment. The shrubs appeal and the Supreme Court. The Court, seeking to avoid another 2000, punts ruling that it is up to Congress to solve the matter of the dueling slates of electors under 3 USC 15 (Bush v Kerry I). Meanwhile in Ohio, the Ohio Supreme Court consolidates several lower cases on the various issues and hears emergency appeals of them. They rule Kerry the winner, but that Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Congressman, is not a valid elector and the Democrats cannot replace him under Ohio law. Bush appeal. The Supreme Court affirms Kerry the winner in Ohio, but rules it is Congress' duty to decide on Brown's vote (Bush v Kerry II). December 12 rolls around. Both slate of Florida electors are allowed to vote under Bush v Kerry I. The South Charleston, WV mayor ends up unfaithful casting his presidential ballot for McCain. Ohio goes off without a hitch. On Jan 6, Cheney and Hastert begin the electoral vote count. Both sides file challenges to Florida's electoral box. The House and Senate are unable to resolve the conflict or simply give the votes to Kerry for the sake of establishing a clear winner. The challenge to Brown's vote in Ohio is successful. The final tally:
Kerry 283
Bush 226
McCain 1
no vote 28 (27 Fla/ 1 OH)

On to the US House for Texas...(I'm probably too optimistic)

TX-1 Sandlin (D)* 51.9, Gomert (R) 47.0, Tucker (L) 1.1
TX-2 Lampson (D)* 49.43, Poe (R) 49.37, Saulsbury (L) 1.2
TX-17 Edwards (D)* 53.8, Wohlgemuth (R) 44.9, Garland (L) 1.3
TX-19 Neugeberger (R)* 54.4, Stenholm (D)* 44.3, Peterson (L) 1.3
TX-22 DeLay (R)* 45.9, RMorrison (D) 44.2, Fjetland (I) 8.6, TMorrison (L) 1.3
TX-25 Doggett (D)* 68, Armendariz Klein (R) 31, Werner (L) 1
...and the one not decided until the lawsuits settle...
TX-32 Frost (D)* 49.5, Sessions (R)* 49.4, Needleman (L) 1.1

Texas House
D5 Hughes (R)* over Glaze (D)
D12 McReynolds (D)* over Clemons (R)
D18 Ellis (D)* over Otto (R)
D48 Strama (D) over Stick (R)*
D50 White (D) over Baxter (R)*
D56 Anderson (R) over Mabry (D)*
D69 Farabee (D)* over Craft (R)
D72 Campbell (R)* survives Sloane (D) but not the special prosecutor
D106 Hubener (D) over Allen (R)*
D117 Leibowitz (D) over Mercer (R)*
D137 Hochberg (D)* over Witt (R)
D149 Vo (D) over Heflin (R)*
a +4 net gain for the Democrats in the House.

Posted by Craig at October 28, 2004 11:25 PM

Thanks to the severe underpolling of democrats due to bad turnout in 2002 from dems, cellphone nonpolling, and Kerry supporters having to work two jobs or be out looking for work, polls in key states are way off, giving democrats unchallengable wins in Florida, Ohio, Penn, Iowa, Minn, NH, Wisc, Michigan, NM, Arkansas, and Colorado. Due to the bad weather in the Bible Belt on election day, votes for Bush are driven down for the national count, Giving Kerry the first majority since Bush in 1988, 53%-46%.
Electoral college goes Kerry 326, Bush 212.

The massive turnout in Texas gives Democrats control of the state house again, and are able to keep most of the redistricted seats save 4. Delay wins 50-49, and is promptly indicted.

Bunning, Martinez, Coors, Murkowski, Keyes, Thume, and Colburn all lose, and Dems take control of the senate after a Mass special election for some unknown democrat.

I can't wait ladies and gentlemen! This day has been anticipated by many of us and hopefully when we all wake up November 3rd, we'll all be filled with hope and joy, with pride in this country. Something I haven't had since that fateful election night in 2000.

Posted by Chocotaku at October 29, 2004 04:57 AM

Damn Craig, that was intense... why would Sherrod Brown be ineligible?

Posted by Andrew D at October 29, 2004 05:55 AM

Wow. Yall are more creative than I am... heh, keep going...

Posted by Byron L at October 29, 2004 06:12 AM

All these predictions are well and good. Let's just hope the election wasn't secretly held two months ago in Diebold Inc.'s boardroom and they're just waiting until the night of November 2 to announce a massive Bush victory.

Posted by Monk of Miletus at October 29, 2004 08:57 AM

House Races:

D pickups: Strama (Baxter is running a better campaign than everyone gives him credit for, and it is a stronger R district. Vo will make a dent in Heflin's numbers, but won't pick it up.)
R pickups: Anderson

Craddick remains speaker.

Posted by Danny M at October 29, 2004 10:17 AM

BTW: The House R's would elect Mabry speaker before they'd vote for Goodman.

Posted by Danny M at October 29, 2004 10:21 AM

Andrew,

Pull out a copy of the Constitution. Article II, 1, second half of the second clause: "[N]o Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector." Sherrod Brown is a US Representative in Ohio. He's thus constitutionally ineligible to be an Elector unless he resigns before the election. The Democratic Party in Ohio really screwed up on this one.

Posted by Craig at October 29, 2004 12:40 PM

Update on Sherrod Brown situation. The problem appears to have been averted. Brown has reportedly stepped down as an elector and since it is before the election, the Democratic Party apparently is able to appoint a new elector to replace him. The highly partisan Republican Secretary of State has indicated he won't challenge the change.

Posted by Craig at October 29, 2004 01:09 PM

Oops, the link didn't work let me try that again...

Brown learns he can't serve as Kerry elector, steps down

Posted by Craig at October 29, 2004 01:12 PM

Barack Obama 71.6%
Alan Keyes 26.0%
others 2.4%

Posted by Tim Z. at October 30, 2004 06:00 AM

Kerry 284 EV

Frost ahead by a few votes

49 US Democratic Senators

Posted by cameron pohlman at October 30, 2004 03:35 PM

PRESIDENT: The OBL video propels Bush over 50% in the popular vote and a 298-239 victory in the Electoral College. Kerry wins MI, PA, NH, and either MN or WI. Bush wins AR, FL, HI, IA, NM, NV, OH, WV, and the other of MN or WI.

U.S. SENATE: REPUBLICANS +3. Republicans pick up NC, SC, GA, FL, LA, and SD. Democrats pick up AK, CO, and IL.

U.S. HOUSE: Gohmert +4, Poe +6, Sessions +5, Edwards +2, Neugebauer +15

TEXAS HOUSE: REPUBLICANS +3. Republicans pick up Mabry, the Telford open seat, Hochberg, and either Farabee or McReynolds. Opiela will give the Democrats a heart attack until they "find" that last box in Jim Wells County. Ellis barely suvives again. Rose will win much earlier in the evening than two years ago.

Democrats pick up one of the Austin seats. Mercer survives as the perimeter precincts outvote the barrio. Allen and Heflin hang on this time but don't run again in 2006 and the Democrats take those seats then. Wong and Hamilton win comfortably. Hughes blows out Glaze.

Posted by Dave Gina at October 30, 2004 03:46 PM

i just think it'd be fun if Bush won the popular vote but lost the electoral college.

tg

Posted by tony gallucci at October 31, 2004 05:53 PM

Enough of this Mickey Mouse shit.

Let a real expert explain what will REALLY happen on Tuesday.

I look forward to receiving my books.

POTUS
Bush -- 269
Kerry -- 269
House selects Bush for President
Senate selects Joe Lieberman for Vice President
Cheney receives quick confirmation as new Defense Secretary
Christie Todd Whitman receives quick confirmation as new Deputy Defense Secretary
John Ashcroft receives quick confirmation as new Ambassador to Ecuador
John Snow gives Jim Jeffords $1 trillion check to spend on special education and dairy subsidies "in any way you see fit."

US SENATE
GOP GAINS -- Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and South Dakota
DEMOCRATIC GAINS -- Illinois, Colorado and Alaska
(Louisianna goes to December 4th run-off. Newly created 527 group Veteran Cajun Chefs for Truth announce $3 gazillion campaign suggesting John hates spicy food; College Democrats counter with offer of free, unlimited blowjobs from hot LSU co-eds for any out-of-state voter who will move to
Lousiana and cast absentee ballot against Vitter. John strikes back at Vet Chefs by eating 49 plates of blackened gaspergoo; Mary Landrieu offers blowjobs for block walkers; Vitter's wife offers anal sex for newly registered Nebraskans in Baton Rouge.)

U.S. HOUSE
CD 1: Sandlin loses to Gohmert by 7 points (Smith and Gregg Counties overhwelm the rest of the distict)
CD 2: Lampson beats Poe by less than 500 votes (Poe's zipper problems hurts him with social conservatives in Harris County; Lampson benefits from strong Jefferson County turnout)
CD 17: Wohlgemuth beats Edwards by 8 points
(Brazos County is Williamson/Collin/Denton on steroids)
CD 19: Neugebauer beats Stenholm by 12 points
(No living person in Lubbock County has ever been represented by a foreigner, and the streak won't be broken)
CD 22: DeLay beats Morrison by 11 points
(Just not enough swing voters in this district)
CD 32: Sessions beats Frost by 5 points
(Voters in North Dallas proved themselves to be progressive by putting out Frost signs, but dammit, actually voting for Frost is just asking too much, even if they think Sessions is slap-dabbed nuts)


TEXAS HOUSE (yawn)
GOP GAINS: Mabry
DEM GAINS: None
Liebowitz in Bexar County should win in Bexar County, but probably won't. Witt should win in Harris County, but probably won't.

Once you have the 25 years of campaign experience I do, you can understand how I easily navigate through these seemingly murky political waters. Unfortunately, I probably will not have time to post to BOR when I take over as Leader Tom DeLay's new liberal outreach director.


Posted by notgonnatell at October 31, 2004 07:15 PM

Enough of this Mickey Mouse shit.

Let a real expert explain what will REALLY happen on Tuesday.

I look forward to receiving my books.

POTUS
Bush -- 269
Kerry -- 269
House selects Bush for President
Senate selects Joe Lieberman for Vice President
Cheney receives quick confirmation as new Defense Secretary
Christie Todd Whitman receives quick confirmation as new Deputy Defense Secretary
John Ashcroft receives quick confirmation as new Ambassador to Ecuador
John Snow gives Jim Jeffords $1 trillion check to spend on special education and dairy subsidies "in any way you see fit."

US SENATE
GOP GAINS -- Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and South Dakota
DEMOCRATIC GAINS -- Illinois, Colorado and Alaska
(Louisianna goes to December 4th run-off. Newly created 527 group Veteran Cajun Chefs for Truth announce $3 gazillion campaign suggesting John hates spicy food; College Democrats counter with offer of free, unlimited blowjobs from hot LSU co-eds for any out-of-state voter who will move to
Lousiana and cast absentee ballot against Vitter. John strikes back at Vet Chefs by eating 49 plates of blackened gaspergoo; Mary Landrieu offers blowjobs for block walkers; Vitter's wife offers anal sex for newly registered Nebraskans in Baton Rouge.)

U.S. HOUSE
CD 1: Sandlin loses to Gohmert by 7 points (Smith and Gregg Counties overhwelm the rest of the distict)
CD 2: Lampson beats Poe by less than 500 votes (Poe's zipper problems hurts him with social conservatives in Harris County; Lampson benefits from strong Jefferson County turnout)
CD 17: Wohlgemuth beats Edwards by 8 points
(Brazos County is Williamson/Collin/Denton on steroids)
CD 19: Neugebauer beats Stenholm by 12 points
(No living person in Lubbock County has ever been represented by a foreigner, and the streak won't be broken)
CD 22: DeLay beats Morrison by 11 points
(Just not enough swing voters in this district)
CD 32: Sessions beats Frost by 5 points
(Voters in North Dallas proved themselves to be progressive by putting out Frost signs, but dammit, actually voting for Frost is just asking too much, even if they think Sessions is slap-dabbed nuts)


TEXAS HOUSE (yawn)
GOP GAINS: Mabry
DEM GAINS: None
Liebowitz in Bexar County should win in Bexar County, but probably won't. Witt should win in Harris County, but probably won't.

Posted by notgonnatell at October 31, 2004 08:12 PM

President Kerry President Kerry President Kerry.

Start practicing. Here's how I know.

More than 6 months ago, both campaigns wrote off Texas as a sure Bush win. No TV, no mailouts, no billboards, no newspaper ads.

So how come early voting (15 largest counties; see Sec O State's web site) is 40% above 2000!? AND that's from a total registration that's up by 12% since then. Bush was a candidate both times, so that can't be the difference.

My call: a huge, spontaneous rising anger about Bush and Bushism. The vote is getting ITSELF out. I won't try to call races, just say that the Demos may take back the Texas House and give quite a few would-be Repug congressmen a very unexpected surprise.

And unless Texas is totally unrepresentative, the same thing will happen nationwide.

Hmmmmm--report on one of the national blogs is that Florida early voting will be even a greater % than it is here. People in minority areas on Sunday waited 5 hours to vote, and none gave up.

Bombs away.

Demo Memo

Posted by Demo Memo at October 31, 2004 08:45 PM

President Kerry....

Kerry 278
Bush 260

US HOUSE
Gohmert over Sandlin by 4%
Lampson over Poe by .5%
Edwards over Wigglemouth by 1%
Noogie over Stenholm by 9%
Delay over Morrison by 8% (as close as 4%)
Frost beats Sessions by less than 300 votes

TX HOUSE
GAINS
Dem: Vo, Strama, White, Huebner, Liebowitz,
Rep: Anderson, Frost

New speaker in the House.

Posted by BlueDog at November 1, 2004 02:35 PM

52-47-1 Kerry

Sandlin +1
Edwards +3
Stenholm -6
Frost -1
Lampson +1

Dem: Vo, Strama,Huebner, Liebowitz,
Rep: Anderson, Frost

Posted by District1baby! at November 1, 2004 10:28 PM

This is the latest exit poll info. on the pres. race, as reported by Jonathan M. Mantz, Dep. Executive Director and Finance Director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The 1st no. is the % for Kerry, second no. is for Bush.

WI 52-48 - K
OH 52-48 - K
FL 52-48 - K
NC 47-52 - B
WV 40-54 - B
ME 55-44 - K
MO 43-55 - B
NH 58-41 - K
AR 44-55 - B
AZ 45-55 - B
CO 48-50 - B
LA 42-57 - B
MI 51-48 - K
VA 49-50 - B
NJ 56-43 - K
IA 49-49 - T
NM 50-48 - K



Posted by Jeff Tippens at November 2, 2004 04:01 PM

Your link to the "www.fuckthesouth.com was hilarious. Its great that there are other people who feel the same way i do about the PUNK ASS Bush adminstration. Great Site!

Posted by Dami Ogunmola at November 12, 2004 02:51 PM

Do I get anything for my prescient picks? I called em all right in Texas , but I was wrong on David Dreier. He ended up getting his lowest winning vote percentage ever.

Posted by Allan Bartlett at November 20, 2004 03:35 PM
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