I'm a democratic precinct chairman in CD-32 and that poll seems to reflect the sentiment I'm encountering. I predict a Frost win due to turnout in Oak Cliff, Irving and the Jewish neighborhoods in north Dallas. Oak Cliff and Irving are areas Frost has represented in the past.
Also, the race for sheriff will have some coat tail effects for Frost too. Lupe Valdez seems to be energizing her base which benefits Frost.
Early voting has been heavy in Highland Park, Sessions base of support. But it has also been heavy in Frost strongholds too. Historically, republicans win the early vote. However, analysis of the early vote so far, using primary voting party identification, shows that early voting seems to be split 50-50 . If this is true, it is good news for Frost.
As for Kerry, I think that poll could be under-estimating his strength. In Dallas Co. in 2000, Gore got 45% of the vote. With a predicted increase in turnout (based on early voting) of 20% it is possible that Kerry could do better than 45% in Dallas Co. CD-32 is entirely in Dallas Co.
There is heavy anti-Bush sentiment in Dallas Co. among democrats, independents and traditionally moderate and fiscally conservative Republicans. I predict that best Bush can hope for in Dallas Co. is 50%.
Frost is running an excellent grassroots campaign and all the indicators are pointing to a Frost victory if the heavy voter turnout continues.
I just donated $200 to Frost on the basis of the original post-- anyone whose candidate skills are this good deserves to be a priority for last-minute cash infusions (the money clearly won't be wasted). Thanks for keeping us Texans who aren't in Texas any more up to date-- you are doing a real public service here.
Thank You Expat Texan. I'll be with Martin tomorrow and I will let him know about your donation and that you were inspired by the burnt orange report and his skilled effort to win. Frost was the grand prize of Tom Delay's illegal redistricting campaign to rid the congress of five Texas democrats from Congress. His scheme isn't working and all five of them are running very close races in districts drawn to the republicanís advantage. I hope Tom is in for an embarassing rebuke of his illegal plan.
Well, I think that Kerry will win Dallas County, but I don't think he'll do that well in the 32nd. All of Kerry's margin and a whole lot more will come from the 30th.
JL: You can tell Martin and anyone else in the campaign it would amuse that he is attracting support from Texans as far away as (currently) Spain. I'm just as angry about redistricting-- losing Doggett as my representative this year.
Thanks for the donation to Frost btw. It's gonna be a long night in Dallas regardless. I doubt either candidate wins by more than 2 points.
Damn, I hope Frost wins. I am a "new Texan", I just moved here (Richardson) from Oregon after the whole redistricting mess happened. I am a proud liberal and hoping my (and my husband's) vote for Frost will make some difference.
I truly hope DeLay gets nailed for this horrific scheme.
Jennifer - head on down to the Frost office and volunteer a little bit in the next week and a half if you have the chance. Every little bit helps:
Here is my one prediction about the Frost/Sessions race. It will not be a long night. The district is entirely in one county and even if the race is close, I expect it will all be over by 10:00pm at the latest. The only things that can make it go longer are an election judge in a traffic accident, or a serious glut of absentee ballots arriving on the last day. They would need to be vetted by the ballot board before being opened and counted. Even in that case, it's unlikely to go on after midnight. That's one of the nice things about this race as opposed to those targeted races in CD 5 in previous years. We won't have to wait on rural counties with election judges who many miles to turn in their elections.
Byron, I think it's very possible that Kerry gets 45% in 32, but no higher. I know people who worked for Nortel and Ericson that have masters degrees in engineering that can't find jobs or they are overqualified for others. Many folks in the telecom corridor ended up training folks from India and then losing their jobs to those people. I would be worried if I were sessions. He needs those white, middle class Republicans in Richardson and along Belt Line Rd. Not saying Kerry will win those areas but he will do surprisingly well. Kerry will win Dallas County. I think Frost has a good shot. Still up here in the buckeye state. Look better every day for Kerry!