no memories brought back here...
I just *recall* that was when Gray Davis' $10 million defeated our RINO (Richard Riordan) in the primary, which led to his *recall* a year later...
Here are the likely competitive legislative races in tomorrow's Democratic primary, along with my predictions. I look forward to eating at least a little crow on Wednesday.
Glenn Lewis (D-Ft. Worth) -- Mark Veasey
Lewis is probably the most vulnerable incumbent; organization/grassroots beats money in this low turnout race
Lewis 46 - Veasey 54
Timoteo Garza (D-Eagle Pass) -- Tracy King
Never try to predict a Maverick County race, but ...
Garza 52 - King 48
Ron Wilson (D-Houston) -- Alma Allen
Two weeks ago, Wilson won have won with 58, but race has tightened
Wilson 51.5 - Allen 48.5
Allen Ritter (D-Beaumont) -- David Bernsen
This is hard to handicap; Bernsen has a surge of late money and a history of strong organization in the Golden Triangle -- but a little late out of the gate
Ritter 50.1 - Bernsen 49.1 (recount)
Dan Ellis (D-Livingston) -- Nancy Archer
If enough folks in Polk County vote (and vote in the D primary) Ellis wins easy; strong Liberty vote makes it competitive
Ellis 53.5 - Archer 46.5
Jaime Capelo (D-Corpus Christi) - Abel Herrero -Nelda Martinez
Run-off is certainty; Capello's bad press and Martinez' grassroots pointed to them in run-off; recent money surge by Herrero and some recovery by Capello makes this hard to call
Cappello 28.5 - Martinez 38.5 - Herrero 33
Gabi Canales (D-Alice) -- Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles -- David Flores
Canales clan will ensure that Gabi makes run-off; Flores likely opponent
Canales 39 - Flores 32 - Toureilles 19
Roberto Gutierrez (D-McAllen) -- Veronica Gonzalez -- Jim Selman
Gutierrez seems to have underestimated opposition but will lead going into run-off; late money to Gonzalez gets her to second round
Gutierrez 39 - Gonzalez 32 - Selman - 29
Mario Gallegos, Jr. (D-Houston) -- Yolanda Navarro Flores
Incumbent's legal problems have kept him from moving above 50 percent in private polls, but Flores has never gotten above 30
Gallegoes 53 - Navarro Flores 47
Based on this, two incumbents (Lewis and Capello) lose and two more (Gutierrez and Canales) are forced into a run-off.
The two wild-cards are Ritter and Ellis, since GOTV and turn-out trends are hard to read.
Gosh, this DOES bring back memories.
Last Primary, I was up until about 4 a.m. creating 29 (actually 58) sets of box-by-box result thihgys in PageMaker for the Canton Herald for the VZDemocratic and Republican primaries, and finishing some last-minute memos for my news staff on election coverage.
BUT, the race I was most concerned about was a little 'ol JP race in VZCounty Precinct 3. Yes, I was worried with everything else, too, but I had worked and consulted on this race and a lot was at steak--including the re-election of a 17-year incumbent and arguably one of the most popular elected officials in our county.
She won by 68%.
Hmm, then again, I'm hoping presidential primary goers in Wilson's district might put Allen over the edge (realistically - wouldn't this tend to bring people out of the woodwork?)
Just finished voting. At 9:00am my partner and I were the 4th & 5th voters to show up at our precinct. They said there was more early voting this year, so hopefully that explains the slow turnout.
Where's the 2004 primary preview?