Comments: Primary Preview 2002

no memories brought back here...

I just *recall* that was when Gray Davis' $10 million defeated our RINO (Richard Riordan) in the primary, which led to his *recall* a year later...

Posted by BoiFromTroy at March 8, 2004 06:10 PM

Here are the likely competitive legislative races in tomorrow's Democratic primary, along with my predictions. I look forward to eating at least a little crow on Wednesday.

Glenn Lewis (D-Ft. Worth) -- Mark Veasey
Lewis is probably the most vulnerable incumbent; organization/grassroots beats money in this low turnout race
Lewis 46 - Veasey 54

Timoteo Garza (D-Eagle Pass) -- Tracy King
Never try to predict a Maverick County race, but ...
Garza 52 - King 48

Ron Wilson (D-Houston) -- Alma Allen
Two weeks ago, Wilson won have won with 58, but race has tightened
Wilson 51.5 - Allen 48.5

Allen Ritter (D-Beaumont) -- David Bernsen
This is hard to handicap; Bernsen has a surge of late money and a history of strong organization in the Golden Triangle -- but a little late out of the gate
Ritter 50.1 - Bernsen 49.1 (recount)

Dan Ellis (D-Livingston) -- Nancy Archer
If enough folks in Polk County vote (and vote in the D primary) Ellis wins easy; strong Liberty vote makes it competitive
Ellis 53.5 - Archer 46.5

Jaime Capelo (D-Corpus Christi) - Abel Herrero -Nelda Martinez
Run-off is certainty; Capello's bad press and Martinez' grassroots pointed to them in run-off; recent money surge by Herrero and some recovery by Capello makes this hard to call
Cappello 28.5 - Martinez 38.5 - Herrero 33

Gabi Canales (D-Alice) -- Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles -- David Flores
Canales clan will ensure that Gabi makes run-off; Flores likely opponent
Canales 39 - Flores 32 - Toureilles 19

Roberto Gutierrez (D-McAllen) -- Veronica Gonzalez -- Jim Selman
Gutierrez seems to have underestimated opposition but will lead going into run-off; late money to Gonzalez gets her to second round
Gutierrez 39 - Gonzalez 32 - Selman - 29

Mario Gallegos, Jr. (D-Houston) -- Yolanda Navarro Flores
Incumbent's legal problems have kept him from moving above 50 percent in private polls, but Flores has never gotten above 30
Gallegoes 53 - Navarro Flores 47

Based on this, two incumbents (Lewis and Capello) lose and two more (Gutierrez and Canales) are forced into a run-off.

The two wild-cards are Ritter and Ellis, since GOTV and turn-out trends are hard to read.

Posted by notgonnatell at March 8, 2004 07:34 PM

Gosh, this DOES bring back memories.

Last Primary, I was up until about 4 a.m. creating 29 (actually 58) sets of box-by-box result thihgys in PageMaker for the Canton Herald for the VZDemocratic and Republican primaries, and finishing some last-minute memos for my news staff on election coverage.

BUT, the race I was most concerned about was a little 'ol JP race in VZCounty Precinct 3. Yes, I was worried with everything else, too, but I had worked and consulted on this race and a lot was at steak--including the re-election of a 17-year incumbent and arguably one of the most popular elected officials in our county.

She won by 68%.

Posted by Vince at March 8, 2004 09:52 PM

Hmm, then again, I'm hoping presidential primary goers in Wilson's district might put Allen over the edge (realistically - wouldn't this tend to bring people out of the woodwork?)

Posted by Jim D at March 9, 2004 12:02 AM

Just finished voting. At 9:00am my partner and I were the 4th & 5th voters to show up at our precinct. They said there was more early voting this year, so hopefully that explains the slow turnout.

Posted by Jason Young at March 9, 2004 09:52 AM

Where's the 2004 primary preview?

Posted by omit at March 9, 2004 02:36 PM
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