Comments: Electoral Math Looks Good

I guess you missed this : New Mexico's Richardson Says No to Kerry's VP Job

Posted by Jason Young at March 8, 2004 09:17 AM

One thing to remember is that leading up to november 2000, most of the state by state polls had bush winning the popular vote, but a chance for gore to win by winning enough states to win the electoral college. I remember working that night and keeping an electoral map with me waiting for the final states to come in so I could confirm who won with the most electoral cotes.

As enamored as you are with Bill Richardson, there is still a good chance Bob Grahm of Florida would be picked so that Florida would be seriously in the D column. Ohio seems like an easy win if they keep using the jobs creation issue on bush.

As you can see by the conservative commercials, they are trying to frame Kerry as a rich liberal from MA. Its not gonna work when its obvious all of bush's money is coming from rich business men .

The 4 blue states you mentioned are definately full of enough bush hatred after these four years to push it over the top. Maine will be an easy win. And although Nader wants to be on the radar. I see him not getting on half the states ballots. FLorida will be a slam dunk with any of the top 3 VP choice(Edwards, Richardson, Graham) and if dems can hold onto the states they won in 2000 and pick up ohio, florida, or missouri, it will be a happy first wednesday of november.

Posted by Chocotaku at March 8, 2004 11:28 AM

Actually, new polls showed that a Graham VP bid would have 0 effect on Kerry's chances in FL. Plus, that's only one state- his performance during his presidential run showed him to be an atrocious campaigner and I really think that his OCD tendencies would get a lot more play- he could be Eagleton all over again, only worse b/c at least Eagleton was good on the surface. Graham would be a useless running mate and I really think that Kerry knows that.

I still love Richardson but if he doesn't take it (as he says he does not want it), Mark Warner, Phil Bredesen or Mary Landrieu would be great too.

Posted by Andrew D at March 8, 2004 12:08 PM

I'm not a WSJ subscriber... How did the poll for TX look?

Posted by Jason Young at March 8, 2004 01:16 PM

Oh I totally agree on Bob Graham being a horrible choice. But hell, the state has voted him into statewide positions 5 times so you can't knock him completely. I mean its not like that state is the most stable state(i.e. Elian anyone?).

As for the florida polls, I believe Kerry is ahead in that state, with Nader taking a few percentage points of spite. What really cheese's me off is that newspapers are reminding people not to vote if they want to help get nader on the ballot. I never saw a single little comment like that in any paper 4 years ago. Oh well. No one reads the statesman anyways, and Austin is where most people sign on for Nader. Thats at least a comfort.

Posted by chokotaku at March 8, 2004 09:04 PM

I live in Austin and I don't know anybody who's going to vote for Nader.

Austin is about the only major city in Texas that will go fir a Democrat nominee. Houston and Dallas will vote overwhelmingly for President Bush.

Posted by SlickWilly at April 10, 2004 01:06 AM

I live in Austin and there are very few peiple I know who are going to vote for Nader. People either are going to vote for the wishy-washy one or the president, but not Nader.

Austin is about the only major city in Texas that will vote in any large numbers for a Democrat nominee. Houston and Dallas will vote overwhelmingly for President Bush.

Texas is a solidly Republican state. Every single statewide elected official is Republican, the legislature is solidly Republican, and Texas will contribute more Republicans to the U. S. House of Representatives next year, thanks to Tom Delay's forceful leadership to pay the Democrats back for what they've been doing to Republicans for 150 years.

Posted by SlickWilly at April 10, 2004 01:13 AM
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