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April 27, 2005

What are the Chances of a Democrat Winning in Texas?

By Byron LaMasters

Via Rick Perry vs. The World is speculation by Texas Monthly's Patricia Kilday Hart on Democrats chances to take back the governor's office in 2006. Hart writes:

The chance of a Democratic upset in the 2006 governor’s race is as likely as, well, Bill Clements winning in ’78. Or Mark White winning in ’82. Or Ann Richards winning in ’90. Or... [...]

Another reason the Democrats have to field a candidate is that Texas gubernatorial elections have been nothing if not unpredictable. In 1972 the backlash from the Sharpstown scandal wiped out Preston Smith in the Democratic primary and elected Dolph Briscoe. Six years later John Hill upset Briscoe in the primary and was poised to waltz into the Governor’s Mansion until Bill Clements exploited Jimmy Carter’s unpopularity to become the state’s first Republican governor since Reconstruction. Clements was regarded as a shoo-in for reelection, but Democratic attorney general Mark White rode the crest of a national anti-Republican fervor to oust him in 1982. Clements returned the favor in ’86. And who could forget how GOP oilman Claytie Williams had the 1990 race sewn up, until Ann Richards reaped the benefits of his self-inflicted wounds? That surprise was matched in ’94 when a certain political newcomer with a certain famous name beat Richards despite her widespread popularity. But the past two elections have produced the expected easy victories for George W. Bush and Perry.


The past quarter century of Texas politics should teach skeptical Democrats a lesson. It could be argued that of the past seven gubernatorial elections in this state, five (1978, 1982, 1986, 1990 and 1994) were relative upsets. Does this mean that Democrats should be confident of victory in 2006? No, but it should teach us the lesson that anything can happen. Races for governor see much more cross-over voting than other races. When Bill Clements was elected the first Republican governor since reconstruction in 1978, there was only one other Republican statewide elected official (U.S. Senator John Tower).

Recent elections of Democratic governors in some of the reddest states in the country such as Montana, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma and Arizona (and on the other side, Republican governors in states like Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Vermont and Maryland) show that it is not uncommon for a state to vote against their partisan leanings in a race for governor. Chris Bell frequently uses the Kansas analogy as an example of how a Democrat can win in a red state.

Democrats have a lot to capitalize on in the 2006 campaign. First, since Republicans control state government on every level, Democrats can run as outsiders and reformers who will prevent too much single party power and corruption. Second, Democrats can specifically run on a reform message against the corruption of Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, TRMPAC, etc. Third, Democrats can run a campaign against the backwards priorities of Republicans in this state - an entire summer of special sessions and millions of taxpayer dollars on re-redistricting, proposals to fund our public schools by lap dances and slot machines, cutting health care for kids and teachers and preventing Texas from being a leader in new science such as stem cell research.

It is overly optimistic to suggest a Democratic victory next November, but the stars are aligning for a competitive race - a divided Republican party with a very bloody primary looming, a second mid-term election of a president that has increasingly less public support (even in Texas), and a Republican Party that has utterly failed to find solutions to school finance and other critical issues to Texans.

Rick Perry vs. the World pegs the Democrats chance of winning the race for governor at 5-7.5% (13-1 to 19-1). I'm not an oddsmaker, so I'll pass on making a guess, but I'd give Democrats more of a chance than he does, but still well under a 50% chance of winning. Anyone else out there want to venture a guess?

Posted by Byron LaMasters at April 27, 2005 03:41 PM | TrackBack


Comments

If the best we can say about our chances for winning the Governor's race in 2006 is "well, crazier things have happened," we're in a heap o' trouble. Not just statewide, either. For those of us in Dallas--where demographic trends point to an increasingly Democratic county--if we can't get a decent candidate at the top of the ticket, I fear for our judicial and other countywide candidates.

I'm sure Chris Bell is a wonderful, wonderful man. But if we can't get somebody a bit more high-profile than him to step up, next November is going to be a bloodbath.

I wish that yummy Rafael Anchia had a bit more political experience under his belt. In time, in time...

Posted by: Pct. 1117 at April 27, 2005 04:34 PM

Democrats in Texas need to focus where factors are in their favor. Several House races across the state should be the focus. Competitive House races will bring more Democrats to the polls, thereby lifting all boats with a rising tide of support.

What I am afraid of is becoming "whining:" as in the party that bitches about what Republicans have done.

We need to say where we stand: Supporting teachers by addressing their health care needs, saying "I want educators able to focus on a child's ability to learn their lessons, not worry about their own ability to pay premiums." Support for CHIPs, were we must explain Texas gets $2.59 from the feds for every dollar the state spends but that our money has currently been going to states like California, or worse New York. We should say, "I don't know about Republicans, but $600 million of Texas federal tax dollars deserves to be spent on Texas children." We need to say that we value the envirnoment and Republicans have sold out. "From the boss to the busboy, every Texan deserves to breath clean air. Quality of life is an issue for all of us, and we will stand up to those industries that refuse to answer to anyone except Repblican fundraisers."

Democrats should change their language, using terms like "investments" instead of "spending." Voters are neccessarily the smartest people on the planet (please note that Rick Perry is currently our Governor) but they are willing to listen to a clear, personal message. John Sharp damn near won in '02, and Bush ain't on the ballot any more, so let's quit bitching and start winning.

Challenge to every Democrat that reads this: Is you current State Representive a Democrat? If not, are they in a competitive district (did the incumbant face opposition or polled below 55%)? There are too many places where we did not do enough, so start looking at what you can do for your local candidates and make a difference.

Posted by: Bill at April 27, 2005 05:56 PM

An even better environmental message that won the governor's race in Montana (a state known for its opposition to traditional environmentalists) is that development is destroying hunting and fishing lands. Too many ranchers and other rural types see environmentalists as a bunch of hippie city types who want to take their land, take their guns and take their trucks. If we instead make it clear that the same forces that are pouring chemicals in our air and water are trying to turn that great patch of dove hunting down the road from your house into a shopping center, they are more likely to listen.

I know that my dad is a hardcore right wing Republican and he is always bitching about how too much of our natural beauty is being overdeveloped. A message that says that we will make sure that our kids and grandkids have places to hunt and fish will resonate. As someone who loves hunting and fishing, I know it resonates with me.

Posted by: Andrew Dobbs at April 28, 2005 12:58 PM

I'm Hispanic, 67 years old and remember well all of the discrimination against blacks and Hispanics as well. Of course, blacks suffered more that we Hispanics did, however, where there were no blacks around to kick around (like in South and West Texas) we were the racists punching bags. Hey ya'll, guess which party was in control here in Texas? The all loving and all caring Democrats! What a damn laugh. Since the late 60s I've been voting Republican and I think other Hispanics will eventually do likewise.

Posted by: James H. Reza at April 28, 2005 02:36 PM

Well at least your not a self hating gay Republican. But you can't let the past define your present if the present is kicking you around. Not saying that it is for you, but hey, wouldn't surpise me from that party.

Posted by: Karl-T at April 29, 2005 02:41 AM

Blaming today's Democrats for racial discrimination in the 20th century is like blaming today's Republicans for McCarthyism. Was there discrimination and injustice? Yes. Is the Republican Party the civil rights hero in this story? No.

Most Latinos vote for Democrats. I hope you do to.

Posted by: Red Dog at April 30, 2005 03:25 PM
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