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March 08, 2005

Legislative Budget Board Reveals Tax Increase in HB 3

By Andrew Dobbs

I don't have the document yet, but Jim Dunnam referred to it on the floor today and my boss was chatting about it, but the nonpartisan (actually, GOP appointed) Legislative Budget Board analyzed HB 3 and found that every Texan making less than $100,000 a year would see a tax increase under the GOP plan- to the tune of a total of $1.1 billion. Taxpayers who make more than $140,000 $100,000 would be the only ones to see a cut.

This is huge, and any Republican who votes for HB 2 (with the property tax cut) or HB 3 (with the funding mechanisms) should be attacked without quarter.

Update: See the Tax Equity Note here. Details: the median Texas family would see a 4.3% tax increase, and the less you make the bigger your tax increase. If you make over $100,000 you see a tax cut, everyone else gets a tax increase.

Posted by Andrew Dobbs at March 8, 2005 03:51 PM | TrackBack


"Legislative Budget Board analyzed HB 3 and found that every Texan making less than $100,000 a year would see a tax increase under the GOP plan"

Nah, they basically made a wild-ass guess, assuming certain portions of the payroll tax being passed onto consumers.

It's really dependent on 1) How much property tax you currently pay and 2) How much you spend. 1) is certainly only loosely correlated with income, and unfortunately 2) often is also.

For instance, a Dell employee making $70K a year, living in a $250K house in the Round Rock school district would see a $1250 drop in property taxes. Dell would pay ~$920 in payroll tax, very little of which would be passed onto consumers. Her sales taxes would go up a bit, but she would see an overall tax cut. Of course, a payroll tax isn't good for jobs, but that's another issue...

Posted by: TM at March 9, 2005 01:05 PM

Yeah, the problem with your scenario is that it is not the typical Texas family. The median household income is $45,000, the average home value about $109,000 and the average Texan pays about $600 in sales taxes. The average Texan will see a tax increase, period.

Oh, and the LBB isnt some kind of Nostradamus club staffed by Naderites- it is a nonpartisan group of economists, lawyers and public policy experts appointed by Republicans. When they say people will pay more taxes, you can take it to the bank.

Posted by: Andrew Dobbs at March 9, 2005 01:39 PM

I was just pointing out that saying "every Texan making under $100K" will see a tax increase was wildly wrong.

Even the "average" person in your example would see a $545 property tax cut, and a ~$100 sales tax increase. Plus some guessed-at amount of higher prices due to the payroll tax, probably around $100 here if prices rise 1%.

Real losers under this plan are those who aren't property owners.

Posted by: TM at March 10, 2005 03:46 PM
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