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October 28, 2004

Washington Times Pessimistic About Republican Chances in Texas Congressional Races

By Byron LaMasters

The conservative Washington Times reports that Democrats are running much beter than expected in the Texas Congressional races:

The redistricting plan adopted this year by the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature was expected to help elect a half-dozen more Republicans to the U.S. House this fall, but strongly contested races have put the exact number of gains in question.

Political observers say the Republican Party may gain only two or three seats.

Technically, Republicans have already picked up two seats -- TX-4 where Ralph Hall switched parties (although he was a Democrat-in-name-only), and TX-10 which Mike McCaul will give Republicans a seat previously held by Lloyd Doggett (Doggett will win the 25th District, the old 25th -- represented by Chris Bell will be won by Al Green in the new 9th District, the old 9th represented by Nick Lampson is now the 2nd district which will be represented by Lampson or Ted Poe, and the old 2nd district held by Jim Turner no longer exists. Turner did not seek reelection, so essentially the old 2nd was replaced by the new 10th - a net gain of a GOP seat before any election was held). Back to the article.

On the Frost / Sessions race:

Mr. Frost has tried to project himself as a moderate a man who voted with President Bush on various key issues (homeland security, in particular). Mr. Sessions, meanwhile, has told small-business owners that he will ensure they are not "taxed to death."

"[Frost] is so well-known. I think that is the main thing here. And he never, ever stops working," said Allan Saxe, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington.

Cal Jillson, Southern Methodist University political science professor, said the race is closer than he had anticipated.

"And I know it's much closer that Pete Sessions ever thought it would be or Tom DeLay expected when he re-did these districts," Mr. Jillson said.

On Sandlin:

In District 1, four-term incumbent Mr. Sandlin is leading in several polls against Republican Louie Gohmert of Tyler. [...]

Mr. Gohmert, a former district and state appeals judge, is expected to carry Smith County (Tyler) handily, but Mr. Sandlin's support in the rural areas is formidable.

On Edwards:

In the District 11 race, Waco Democrat Mr. Edwards, appears to be leading his Republican opponent, Arlene Wohlgemuth despite her attempts to portray him as an archliberal.

Mrs. Wohlgemuth, a state representative who worked with Mr. Bush when he was governor to pass the state's largest tax cut, has aligned herself with the president on all issues.

On Lampson:

In Beaumont, four-term Democrat Lampson, faces a high-profile opponent in former district judge Ted Poe from Houston in the reconstructed District 2. [...]

"I think a lot here depends on whether or not Mr. Poe is swept in by a huge Bush turnout. I don't think he can win it on his own," Mr. Jillson said.

Only in the Stenholm / Neugebauer race is the Washington Times confident that the Republican will win:

In District 17, Mr. Stenholm faces Republican Randy Neugebauer of Lubbock. The general consensus seems to be that Mr. Neugebauer will prevail.

How can you help? Donate to the DCCC's Defend Texas Campaign.

Posted by Byron LaMasters at October 28, 2004 01:27 AM | TrackBack


NOW you guys believe the Moonie Times? Hehe.

Actually, this is pretty reasonable. And it reflects what I said during the redistricting process -- GOP gains three seats, four maybe.

Posted by: Keith at October 28, 2004 07:27 AM

Well, I still think their nuts, but it is telling that they're quite pessimistic about Republican's chances in several of these races.

Posted by: Byron L at October 28, 2004 09:28 AM

Let's not concede the 10th district until the votes are counted, no matter how long the odds.

Posted by: citizen Able at October 28, 2004 11:28 AM

Does the two- or three-seat gain take into account that Tom DeLay might actually lose?

Posted by: Tom at October 28, 2004 01:20 PM

"I still think their nuts, but it is telling that they're quite pessimistic about Republican's chances in several of these races."

Which again affirms what I just said. NOW you believe the Moonie Times? Well, even a blind hig finds a truffle now and then . . .

Tom DeLay won't lose. Three-to-four seat gain, including the de facto pickup of the effectively uncontested open seat, Hall's switch, and the defeat of two of the white, anglo incumbents (Stenholm and Lampson). A fifth arises if Frost goes down. But the talk of a seven-seat gain was just smoke.

Posted by: Keith at October 29, 2004 07:49 AM
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