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October 20, 2004

Travis County Votes Day 2

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

It's really quite amazing. I can't wait to see the rest of the state's numbers to see if it's just us or not. From the County Clerk's Office...

Travis County Early Vote

Monday: 15,983
Tuesday: 15,857

Mail Ballots received

Monday: 715
Tuesday: 976

Total Daily Vote
Monday: 16,698
Tuesday: 16,833

Total Travis Vote to Date: 33,531

A full 6.06% of this county's voters have already cast their ballots. That didn't happen until Day 5 of early vote in 2000. In fact, the very fact that Day 2's vote total is almost exactly the same as Day 1 is shocking!

It's hard to compare numbers to the 2000 and 1996 races due to the fact that in both of those years, early voting did not start on a Monday. In 1996 is was a Wednesday and in 2000, a Saturday. So you have two patterns to account for which is near impossible- what the day of the week is (weekends affect turnout) and what day of early voting it is (1st, 2nd, 3rd...).

But in any case, numbers this high are still running twice as high as past presidential years. And just think, the total early vote for Travis County in 2002 was 16,771.


And the actual data formatted like yesteday. This is Tuesday specific though...

Region Location Votes % of Total
North Northcross Mall 1 1514 9.55%
Central University of Texas 1 1298 8.19%
Southwest Randalls South Mopac 1 1147 7.23%
Northwest Randalls Research 1093 6.89%
Southwest Home Depot 968 6.10%
West Randalls Bee Caves 938 5.92%
West Randalls Lakeway 755 4.76%
South HEB South Congress 719 4.53%
Northwest HEB Four Points 692 4.36%
Central Randall's 35th Street 682 4.30%
North Randalls Parmer Lane 682 4.30%
  Mobile Voting 644 4.06%
Southeast Albertsons Stassney 605 3.82%
North Highland Mall 578 3.65%
South Randalls Ben White 563 3.55%
Central Travis County Courthouse 1 543 3.42%
Northeast Albertsons North Lamar 506 3.19%
Northeast Pflugerville County Tax Office 441 2.78%
Central Travis County Airport Office 385 2.43%
Central Fiesta Mart 361 2.28%
Southeast Albertsons Riverside 264 1.66%
East HEB East 7th 254 1.60%
East Northeast Health Center 225 1.42%
  Total 15857  
  Avg. Votes per Locale 689  

The break once again is to indicate which locations are pulling more or less than their 'fair and equal' share should every location have pulled the same number of votes, 689 in today's case.

In the Top Locations today, we see no movement in the Top 6 spots but those in 3, 4, 5, 6 all strenghtening their share. Randalls Lakeway (west) moves up 3 spots while Randalls Parmer (north) falls off the top. HEB Four Points (northwest) moves up into the Top list.

In all cases, votes cast at Central locations continues to lead yesterday and today with just over 20% of the total. North has been second both days with just under 20%. Both regions have weakened though along with East, the bottom region both days making up less than 4% of the daily vote. Southwest, West, and Northwest have all gained about 1% each of the total share in the past day.

A couple of things to remember in all this. Higher turnout tends to help Democrats as a general rule. Also, Democrats historically tend to vote in larger numbers on election day than in early voting. This is even more true as a general rule for minority voters, who like to bring out the whole family to vote at once. I'd be willing to bet that on the weekends, the three Eastern regions pick up as well.

All that said, these numbers feel good. You also don't want to see the arrangement of my spreadsheets where I'm crunching numbers. I'll keep posting the daily chart, and whatever else is up to how much time I have or what looks interesting.

And by the way, do ya'll actually like seeing these numbers and analysis? Let me know, because otherwise I'll just drop them.

Posted by Karl-Thomas Musselman at October 20, 2004 08:11 AM | TrackBack


Good job! Yes, keep following the early vote. The numbers and analysis make for interesting reading. Regards, Phil Cottingham

Posted by: phil cottingham at October 20, 2004 10:23 AM

Good job! Yes, keep following the early vote. The numbers and analysis make for interesting reading. Regards, Phil Cottingham

Posted by: phil cottingham at October 20, 2004 10:23 AM

Keep the stats coming! It's great to get a breakdown, and to see the incredible momentum of this early voting cycle.

Posted by: Shelly at October 20, 2004 10:51 AM

Yes, please continue. And point out all the indicators for a Dem victory. It calms my election nerves. :-)

Posted by: Annie at October 20, 2004 03:21 PM

Please keep the info coming - its a great addition to the blog. Just think - if every lefty blog took the time to do this, we would have a GREAT picture of where things stand on election day!

Posted by: cityjane at October 20, 2004 03:23 PM

Allrighty then, as I have the time, I will keep doing it. One never knows if it's interesting or not and I wanted to hear from ya'll.

Posted by: Karl-T at October 20, 2004 05:38 PM

I take it that they haven't actually tallied any of the votes yet? Also, is any outfit doing any exit polling? That would be interresting to see any trends if any from the early votes.

Posted by: Allan Bartlett at October 20, 2004 09:24 PM
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