Burnt Orange Report

Edwards lives to see another day... Snyder is from Waco, which is Edwards' base. With Wohlgemuth he has a shot of turning out Waco and doing respectably enough elsewhere to win it in a squeaker. Sandlin has a shot I'd say- Graves was a much better candidate and would have been a GOP golden boy but two consecutive losses should end his political career. Republican Ken Mercer down in SA drew the weakest opponent from us- Vice Leibowitz. Also, despite winning easily 36% of the Republicans in this state voted for a nut job in Robert Butler, simply proving my point that they won't vote for Hispanic named candidates. Too bad about Walls- I was hoping he'd show up in drag on the floor of the House.

Thanks for the reporting on the results. Wasn't Snyder the Bush family choice? Looks like the Dems might have a decent shot at getting better than an 0 for 5 on election night. I ranked them, in terms of vulnerability, thusly before tonight:

Now I would change it to this:

TX-19 Stenholm
TX-01 Sandlin
TX-17 Edwards
TX-32 Frost
TX-02 Lampson

I thought Lampson would be in the best position, but I guess Poe is pretty well known? Wohlgemuth really poked the Club for Growth stick in Bush's eye, gawd she's not what we need another of in DC! I was reading your post here:
https://burntorangereport.com/archives/001184.html
Gohmert really emerged, maybe Sandlin has a chance. I don't think Stenholm has a shot at all.

Andrew -

Who is Leibowitz and why is he weak? I don't know much about him.

lampson has the worst chance by far.

andrew -

Never mind, answered my own question. Seems you may be confusing Vince Leibowitz, someone who runs a blog ( http://www.freestatecommunications.com/vpltz/blog1/blog.html), with David Leibowitz, the Democrat who will be running against Ken Mercer.
From what I read about David Leibowitz in the one or two articles I could find online, he sounds ok. His Dem runoff opponent, Ken Mireles, positioned himself as the more conservative Democrat in the race. As we've learned, that's not the thing to do in a Democratic primary in a state legislative race this year. Also, Leibowitz was the only candidate in the race who speaks fluent Spanish. It's a diverse district that should be competitive in the fall. We'll see how he does.

see: http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/metro/stories/MYSA05.09A.District_117.3439f074.html

Lampson? I doubt it. Most of Lampson's Jefferson County base will be on board, and Poe is probably going to struggle, though he'll have money and name rec, most of the voters in the 2nd are still in Lampson's hip pocket, I think.

I'd say Frost and Sandlin are most vulnerable, with Stenholm and Edwards making up the second tier, and Lampson the third.

Then again, I've been spending more time with seastars and sea urchins with my new job at Moody Gardens this last couple weeks than I have being a wonk. Maybe the artificial sea water is killing my nose for news?

I think Stenholm and Lampson are still going to go down.

Lampson has to deal with Humble-Kingwood area plus part of the Cypress and Klein areas in N Harris County. All of those villiages are fast-growing and at least 64% Republican. He does have a good Jefferson County machine, so he will make a race out of it.

Stenholm lost too much of the Concho Valley (San Angelo). And he lost Stphenville and Brownwood. Lubbock is just to rock-ribbed Republican. Unless John Montford gets involved (which he can't) there's not much inroad building he can do. Does anyone know what the farm bureau will do?

Frost may make it interesting but I just don't think he survives. Chet Edwards and Max! have the best chances of survival.

I know several Democrats who can still not forgive Chet Edwards for being the one vote in the Texas Senate that allowed the fundamental change to Worker's Comp that left Labor decimated.