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April 01, 2004

Cuellar up by 203 Votes with Completed Recount

By Byron LaMasters

The San Antonio Express-News reports:

Pending a potential lawsuit and a second retabulation of disputed ballots in Webb County, Henry Cuellar took an unofficial 203-vote lead over U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez in an 11-county recount completed today.

Results from Comal County, the last county to complete a recount in the Congressional District 28 race, gave Rodriguez three additional votes, while Cuellar's vote tally increased by one.

Earlier in the day, a similar exercise in Guadalupe County added three votes for Cuellar, while Rodriguez lost one vote.

The entire recount process marked an amazing turnaround for Rodriguez, the San Antonio incumbent who saw a 145-vote lead after the March 9 primary evaporate into a 203-vote deficit that has prompted cries of fraud and vote tampering.


So, pending a lawsuit, Cuellar will be the next congressman from TX-28.

Posted by Byron LaMasters at April 1, 2004 08:40 PM | TrackBack


Comments

Just a note on something that i think is not well known by the general public. I was working as an investigative reporter during the 2000 election debacle. Before the thing turned ugly, I had been invited to observe the county clerk's certification of vote totals. I've been around a long time but that night i learned something new, and to me a bit unsettling. When the clerk certifies, she (in this case) must take random sample boxes and recount (with help and observers) the ballots and compare them to totals reported by the official ballot counters. Her comment was that there always was/had been nearly 100% of the random recounts that turned up an error of one or more votes. I watched this happen as box after box had different point totals -- not by much mind you, but in every sampled box the totals changed. The difference is not retabulated into the posted totals, but the difference is audited and sent to the secretary of state. At some pre-determined threshhold (and i can't remember where this decision is made, or what the threshhold is, a percentage i think), a recount is triggered, but the mistake has to be rather large to do so, meaning a lot of errors are made and not corrected. Presumably this is a statistical wash -- but in politics-as-usual Texas, this seems to open a window for shenanigans. The point is that the totals are never right, when errors are discovered they are not corrected (absent a trigger or a requested recount), and that any recount is going to change the totals if not the result. The SAEN story didn't seem to bear this out when it made the point that the Cuellar vote total was upped by three and Rodriguez's by one in Guadalupe (as an example), but that is only the statistical wash part of it -- there is no mention of how many votes were actually affected, only the net results.

The clerk made the point to me that in any really tight race, you have a decent chance of reversing results by simply challenging the totals (a 50-50 balance of recounted votes in an election with a hundred thousand votes still leaves much room for altering results in races where 200 votes determines a winner). In fact, it might be best for democracy if recounts were automatic in any race that is under a threshhold, simply to prevent overzealous counters with an agenda from padding totals (while remaining below the recount trigger).

The real issue of course in this race is the "mysterious" Zapata County "missing" ballots -- and in that regard it's easy to speculate that anyone with a hankering for hanky-panky knew they not only might have to "provide" some votes to boost a candidate, but also might have to counter inevitable natural tally changes. Thus 300 "magic" votes, and perhaps a little too obvious and heavy-handed "mistake".

Just a thought. . .

Posted by: tony gallucci at April 1, 2004 10:02 PM

There was a great editorial cartoon in the San Antonio Express with a reporter declaring Lyndon Johnson the winner of the district 28 race.

Posted by: Jacob M. at April 2, 2004 02:28 PM
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