Burnt Orange ReportNews, Politics, and Fun From Deep in the Heart of Texas |
|
March 24, 2004Some Thoughts on the VP... AgainBy Andrew DobbsI'll reiterate a few points I like to make on this subject:
So who do I like? Well, for a long time I've liked Bill Richardson. He won a landslide in New Mexico (check), he is a governor (check) and as an Hispanic he puts Arizona, Colorado and Nevada firmly in play (check check check). Still- his record at the Department of Energy led Sen. Robert Byrd to say that he would never get confirmed by the Senate again- he essentially allowed nuclear secrets to slip into the hands of Chinese spies- a fiasco that cost him the VP spot in 2000. If you don't think that George "Steady Leadership" Bush won't bring that up- you are dead wrong. Another great choice, I feel, is Mark Warner. He might carry Virginia (though I am not quite sure about that) and could make some other Southern states reachable, he is a governor and most importantly- he's filthy freakin rich. He could pour $50 million or more into the campaign right away and put us on the air nationwide. He's also attractive, moderate and well spoken. Finally, he's term limited (you cannot be reelected as Governor in VA) and so we need to get him on the National scene one way or another. He'd make a great VP and I think Kerry/Warner might be the ticket for 2004. Finally, let's consider the VP bounce. When the candidate chooses his VP, it invariably increases that candidate’s favorable media coverage which leads to a poll bounce. It’s predictable and if it doesn’t happen, something went wrong. If Kerry picks someone everyone already knows from a year and a half on the campaign trail- i.e. John Edwards or Bob Graham- he loses that bounce. The coverage is- “Look, this is predictable and you know this guy. Feel free to change the channel.” You want someone that needs introducing, that needs an explanation, that intrigues people. People have seen Bill Richardson but we can all see the two minute network news piece now- Congressman, ambassador, peace maker, four time Nobel Peace Prize nominee, Secretary of Energy, Hispanic, Governor of New Mexico. It’s a damn fine piece and the bounce would likely be huge. Of course, the nasty stories about the nuclear secrets will be in there too and that could mitigate the bounce some. Mark Warner is good too- Southern, businessman, moderate, education policy, NASCAR strategy, lots of money. Still other candidates would be great too- Mary Landrieu (she violates Rule 2 but could make up for it with lots of cred under Rules 1 and 3), Tom Vilsack, Brad Henry or maybe Madeline Albright (though I think the fact that she is foreign born actually disqualifies her). They are all obscure enough to make people’s ears perk up and give Kerry a bounce. As long as they fulfill these three qualifications, I think that they will make a great VP choice. Kerry is in an enviable position right now- he is running even with the president and has the entire party behind him heading into the summer and spring. If he makes the right choices now, he could end up winning this thing big in November. Update: So it seems thate Madeline Albright, born a Czech, is indeed disqualified from serving as Vice President. Someone who doesn't provide regional balance (as he is from Maine) but is highly qualified nonetheless would be William S. Cohen. Republican member of Congress from Maine, Secretary of Defense under Bill Clinton, his character and qualifications are impeccable and his independence would be intriguing. There's no telling if he'd accept it, but he would create no only a bounce but a shockwave through the race. As a life long Republican and one of the smartest men in America in terms of National Security issues, he could go toe to toe with anybody in this race and would create headlines like no one else. Put me down as a supporter of Kerry/Cohen 2004.
Comments
Kerry & Cohen? My God, you might as well nominate a pair of sycamores. It'll be stiffest, most esoteric ticket in Democratic history since Adlai Stevenson brought the term "egg head" into the mainstream. But, it has merits. The only time a Veep mattered in terms of his state was when LBJ ran with JFK. Hell, Cheney lived in Dallas until he decided he should be the running mate and rediscovered Wyoming! The regional balance argument doesn't matter because the nation's politics are more nationalized than at any time since 1836. A friend of mine here on the Law faculty at OU had an idea: leave it to the convention to decide. And, as a lead-in, screen about fifteen competitors, and have Clinton, Carter, Dukakis, McGovern and Mondale eliminate one each week on national TV, a la the Trumpster. Posted by: Keith G at March 24, 2004 08:20 AMI really like Bill Richardson, but until we put Bush, Cheney & Rove into early retirement we can't afford the risk of the overwhelmingly negative campaign (specifically national security attacks) that would follow a Richardson nomination. For that reason, along with the charisma and moderate appeal of Mark Warner, I strongly support a Kerry/Warner '04 ticket. Hopefully Richardson can be Warner's VP in the 2012 election! Posted by: Joe M at March 24, 2004 09:33 AMCohen? If you are going for a Republican, go for a maverick: McCain. It won't be a 'Phant though. Posted by: Matthew Saroff at March 24, 2004 01:11 PMI've got to agree with the others who've nixed the idea of Cohen. First off, naming a Republican seems to show little faith in your party. Secondly, he wasn't even Clinton's most impressive Defense Secretary, that was Perry. If you're going to go with a Clinton cabinet member (other than Richardson) I like Donna Shalala. Plus I like Jay Rockefeller for points 1 and 3 and Ed Rendell for points 1 and 2. Vilsack's intriguing but I don't know much about him. Posted by: Scott C at March 24, 2004 02:10 PMI like the idea of giving the appearance at least of leaving it to the convention. Let's showcase all the potential stars. It might improve the convention's tv ratings for the week. The idea of nominating a Republican leaves me cold, but if that's who the nominee and the convention should choose, I'd go along in a New York minute. My fantasy guy though is Gavin Newsom. So far he's shown more cajones than any Democrat I've seen this year. We're not going to beat Bush just by hating him. We need to show the American people that we have a vision of where this country needs to go. Newsom represents the future of the Democrat party. I'd go with the future. Posted by: Houston at March 24, 2004 02:52 PMBrad Henry would be a terrible choice...guy can't even manage to make a splash in God-forsaken Oklahoma. An accidental governor. Posted by: blue at March 24, 2004 07:43 PM"God-foresaken?" Losing to OU at football so badly, so often makes you people snippy. But Henry (whom I've spent time with) is no VEEP prospect. He's a nice guy and a pretty good state legislative operator, but he's not national calibre. You might as well propose Roy Barnes. Or Cynthia McKinney. Posted by: Keith G at March 24, 2004 08:13 PMWhat do people think about Gov. Tom Vilsack or Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)? Vilsack would probably bring Iowa, and Cantwell could concievably help in Oregon, which was close in 2000. Posted by: Eduardo J. Klein at March 24, 2004 09:17 PMVilsack is not in a position to be VP right now. He's having problems with his budget in his own state. And kerry will win Iowa by more the Gore did without Vilsack. To me its obvious Gen. Clark is the best choice. He helps in many parts of the world with independents and also would more than likely carry ARK and LA when he goes stumping down there with Clinton. he also helps with the Military vote. Not to mention carry is fighting the notion he is weak on defense. Clark shuts that talk up Posted by: Brent at March 24, 2004 09:43 PMMaria Cantwell is OUR Senator and you can't have her. Richardson doesn't want it and said so - he's at home as King of New Mexico. Cohen is a great choice, and Clinton thought so when he picked Cohen as Secretary of Defense. . Cohen reportedly is a quarter inch of charm covering hard cold steel. He moved his Philosophy library to the Pentagon when he took office. Unlike Cheney who, like Woddrow F. Call, don't know a philosophy. I will pay cash money to see Cohen debate Cheney. Brenda in Seattle I agree with the general assessment of Cohen, above, and that is why I have reservations. You want to have an inspired ticket of Platonic Statesmen, yes, put Cohen up. Indeed, I suggest all of you read Richard Fenno's SENATORS ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL (1996) which has a fairly detailed account by Fenno of his time travelling with the campaiging former Senator Cohen. Kerroheny is a ticket that warms my intellectual heart, but it is also a ticket that cools the enthusiasm of the dwindling number of swing voters, and it can't activate the base. And, though I hate to be the one making this argument, don't go selling Cheney short . . . the man studied political science and philosophy at University of Wisconsin (one of the best programs in the world) and had an APSA fellowship to work on Capitol Hill before the lure of GOP power circles took him away from the academy. Posted by: Keith G at March 25, 2004 07:05 AMI don't know if anyone is still reading this thread, but let me comment. I was just throwing names out there, I really know nothing about Brad Henry. I just hadn't heard anyone say his name which makes him a likely candidate for VP. Also, let me reiterate- NO ONE VOTES FOR THE VP. VPs have 2, maybe 3 things that will help the ticket- 1. Organization in their home state for having been the boss of the party/politics for so long, 2. The VP bounce that is generated in the polls after the VP is announced and sometimes 3. Turning out minority group support in key areas if that person is a member of the community. Having said that, people WILL vote AGAINST a VP- case in point, Dan Quayle. So you don't want a bad choice. Picking Clark/Dean/Edwards/Gephardt/Graham or any other Presidential candidate will end your chances of any real VP bounce because the media coverage won't be "check out this great person you've never heard of" but rather "look- he picks someone everyone already knows about, move along." That's why we need someone unique. I think that Cohen would be great, Landrieu would be pretty good, Warner would be very good. I'm okay with any of them. As for leaving it to the convention, there are definite pros, but i see them as outweighed by the cons. Pro- the convention gets watched by more people, they see the parade of speeches and we get a huge convention bounce. Cons- we have to wait until late July to get our VP, which means s/he has less time to raise money, speak on behalf of the ticket, etc. I like the idea of naming the VP in late May, right when the summer media lull (the one that always creates sensational stories like SARS or Shark attacks...) rolls around and we get a bounce there and then have a great convention that should provide something of a bounce in late July. i like Kos' idea of a shadow cabinet, we can start rolling that out after the convention to keep the bounce growing. Thats a whole other post though... Posted by: Andrew D at March 26, 2004 02:08 AM
Post a comment
|
About Us
About/Contact
Advertising Policies
Donate
Archives
March 2005
February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003 August 2003 July 2003 June 2003
Recent Entries
HoustonDemocrats.com
Tom DeLay and Foreign Money Blogging and Pro-Wrestling Pete Sessions Helps Major Donor in Divorce Case "Do You Write For..." Kansas Yes, Colorado No HB 2 Passes, Close Call on Final Vote Firefox 1.0.1 Austin City Council Endorsements Roll in... Playing Hardball Learning from Kansas Bloghorns ATTN: Election Junkies HB 2 Liveblogged Republicans Pass Tax Increase, Cut In School Funds Legislative Budget Board Reveals Tax Increase in HB 3 CWA Local Head Says Sergeant-at-Arms not Authorized to Shut Down Dallas Meeting More Reaction on Perry Attacking Bloggers Changes to HB 3, Debate Begins on HB 2 Rick Perry Attacks Blogs Again
Categories
2004: Dem Convention (79)
2004: Presidential Election (569) 2008: Presidential Election (8) About Burnt Orange (113) Around Campus (109) Austin City Limits (100) Axis of Idiots (28) Blogs and Blogging (123) BOR Humor (60) BOR Sports (56) Budget (16) Burnt Orange Endorsements (12) Congress (16) Dallas City Limits (75) Elsewhere in Texas (5) Get into the Action! (5) GLBT (141) Houston City Limits (28) International (87) Intraparty (34) National Politics (467) Oh, you know, other stuff. (23) Politics for Dummies (11) Pop Culture (60) Redistricting (255) Social Security (29) Texas Lege (68) Texas Politics (637) That Liberal Media (1) The Economy, Stupid (13)
BOR Edu.
University of Texas
University Democrats
BOR News
The Daily Texan
The Statesman The Chronicle
BOR Politics
DNC
DNC Blog: Kicking Ass DSCC DSCC Blog: From the Roots DCCC DCCC Blog: The Stakeholder Texas Dems Travis County Dems U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett State Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos State Rep. Dawnna Dukes State Rep. Elliott Naishtat State Rep. Eddie Rodriguez State Rep. Mark Strama
Linked to BOR!
Alexa Rating
Truth Laid Bear Ecosystem Technoranti Link Cosmos Blogstreet Blogback
Polling
American Research Group
Annenberg Election Survey Gallup Polling Report Rasmussen Reports Survey USA Zogby
Texas Stuff
A Little Pollyana
Austin Bloggers DFW Bogs DMN Blog In the Pink Texas Inside the Texas Capitol The Lasso Pol State TX Archives Quorum Report Daily Buzz George Strong Political Analysis Texas Law Blog Texas Monthly Texas Observer
TX Dem Blogs
100 Monkeys Typing
Alandwilliams.com Alt 7 Annatopia Appalachia Alumni Association Barefoot and Naked BAN News Betamax Guillotine Blue Texas Border Ass News The Daily DeLay The Daily Texican Dos Centavos Drive Democracy Easter Lemming Esoterically Get Donkey Greg's Opinion Half the Sins of Mankind Jim Hightower Houtopia Hugo Zoom Latinos for Texas Off the Kuff Ones and Zeros Panhandle Truth Squad Aaron Peña's Blog People's Republic of Seabrook Pink Dome The Red State Rhetoric & Rhythm Rio Grande Valley Politics Save Texas Reps Skeptical Notion Something's Got to Break Southpaw Stout Dem Blog The Scarlet Left Tex Prodigy ToT View From the Left Yellow Doggeral Democrat
TX GOP Blogs
Beldar Blog
Blogs of War Boots and Sabers Dallas Arena Jessica's Well Lone Star Times Publius TX Safety for Dummies The Sake of Arguement Slightly Rough
Daily Reads
&c.
ABC's The Note Atrios BOP News Daily Kos Media Matters MyDD NBC's First Read Political State Report Political Animal Political Wire Talking Points Memo CBS Washington Wrap Wonkette Matthew Yglesias
College Blogs
CDA Blog
Get More Ass (Brown) Dem Apples (Harvard) KU Dems U-Delaware Dems UNO Dems Stanford Dems
GLBT Blogs
American Blog
BlogActive Boi From Troy Margaret Cho Downtown Lad Gay Patriot Raw Story Stonewall Dems Andrew Sullivan
More Reads
Living Indefinitely
Blogroll Burnt Orange!
BOR Webrings
< ? Texas Blogs # >
<< ? austinbloggers # >> « ? MT blog # » « ? MT # » « ? Verbosity # »
Election Returns
CNN 1998 Returns
CNN 2000 Returns CNN 2002 Returns CNN 2004 Returns state elections 1992-2005 bexar county elections collin county elections dallas county elections denton county elections el paso county elections fort bend county elections galveston county elections harris county elections jefferson county elections tarrant county elections travis county elections
Texas Media
abilene
abilene reporter news alpine alpine avalanche amarillo amarillo globe news austin austin american statesman austin chronicle daily texan online keye news (cbs) kut (npr) kvue news (abc) kxan news (nbc) news 8 austin beaumont beaumont enterprise brownsville brownsville herald college station the battalion (texas a&m) corpus christi corpus christi caller times kris news (fox) kztv news (cbs) crawford crawford lone star iconoclast dallas-fort worth dallas morning news dallas observer dallas voice fort worth star-telegram kdfw news (fox) kera (npr) ktvt news (cbs) nbc5 news wfaa news (abc) del rio del rio news herald el paso el paso times kdbc news (cbs) kfox news (fox) ktsm (nbc) kvia news (abc) galveston galveston county daily news harlingen valley morning star houston houston chronicle houston press khou news (cbs) kprc news (nbc) ktrk news (abc) laredo laredo morning times lockhart lockhart post-register lubbock lubbock avalanche journal lufkin lufkin daily news marshall marshall news messenger mcallen the monitor midland - odessa midland reporter telegram odessa american san antonio san antonio express-news seguin seguin gazette-enterprise texarkana texarkana gazette tyler tyler morning telegraph victoria victoria advocate waco kxxv news (abc) kwtx news (cbs) waco tribune-herald weslaco krgv news (nbc) statewide texas cable news texas triangle
World News
ABC News All Africa News Arab News Atlanta Constitution-Journal News.com Australia BBC News Bloomberg Boston Globe CBS News Chicago Tribune Christian Science Monitor CNN Denver Post FOX News Google News The Guardian Inside China Today International Herald Tribune Japan Times LA Times Mexico Daily Miami Herald MSNBC New Orleans Times-Picayune New York Times El Pais (Spanish) Salon San Francisco Chronicle Seattle Post-Intelligencer Slate Times of India Toronto Star Wall Street Journal Washington Post
Powered by
Movable Type 3.15 |