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March 24, 2004

Some Thoughts on the VP... Again

By Andrew Dobbs

I'll reiterate a few points I like to make on this subject:

1. Nobody votes for the VP. VPs carry states because they have strong organizations there from years of being elected and people will turn out for them

2. Two Senators on the ticket is not balanced- its a Washington insider ticket. We have a Senator running for President (already a bad move- all of two senators have been directly elected President from the Senate), we ought to have a non Senator for VP imho.

3. Consider the X Factors- being a member of a minority constituency means that that group will probably turn out in record numbers (or so goes the logic, no one has tried it yet). Having a personal fortune means that we can increase our money, etc.

So who do I like? Well, for a long time I've liked Bill Richardson. He won a landslide in New Mexico (check), he is a governor (check) and as an Hispanic he puts Arizona, Colorado and Nevada firmly in play (check check check). Still- his record at the Department of Energy led Sen. Robert Byrd to say that he would never get confirmed by the Senate again- he essentially allowed nuclear secrets to slip into the hands of Chinese spies- a fiasco that cost him the VP spot in 2000. If you don't think that George "Steady Leadership" Bush won't bring that up- you are dead wrong.

Another great choice, I feel, is Mark Warner. He might carry Virginia (though I am not quite sure about that) and could make some other Southern states reachable, he is a governor and most importantly- he's filthy freakin rich. He could pour $50 million or more into the campaign right away and put us on the air nationwide. He's also attractive, moderate and well spoken. Finally, he's term limited (you cannot be reelected as Governor in VA) and so we need to get him on the National scene one way or another. He'd make a great VP and I think Kerry/Warner might be the ticket for 2004.

Finally, let's consider the VP bounce. When the candidate chooses his VP, it invariably increases that candidate’s favorable media coverage which leads to a poll bounce. It’s predictable and if it doesn’t happen, something went wrong. If Kerry picks someone everyone already knows from a year and a half on the campaign trail- i.e. John Edwards or Bob Graham- he loses that bounce. The coverage is- “Look, this is predictable and you know this guy. Feel free to change the channel.” You want someone that needs introducing, that needs an explanation, that intrigues people. People have seen Bill Richardson but we can all see the two minute network news piece now- Congressman, ambassador, peace maker, four time Nobel Peace Prize nominee, Secretary of Energy, Hispanic, Governor of New Mexico. It’s a damn fine piece and the bounce would likely be huge. Of course, the nasty stories about the nuclear secrets will be in there too and that could mitigate the bounce some. Mark Warner is good too- Southern, businessman, moderate, education policy, NASCAR strategy, lots of money. Still other candidates would be great too- Mary Landrieu (she violates Rule 2 but could make up for it with lots of cred under Rules 1 and 3), Tom Vilsack, Brad Henry or maybe Madeline Albright (though I think the fact that she is foreign born actually disqualifies her). They are all obscure enough to make people’s ears perk up and give Kerry a bounce. As long as they fulfill these three qualifications, I think that they will make a great VP choice.

Kerry is in an enviable position right now- he is running even with the president and has the entire party behind him heading into the summer and spring. If he makes the right choices now, he could end up winning this thing big in November.

Update: So it seems thate Madeline Albright, born a Czech, is indeed disqualified from serving as Vice President. Someone who doesn't provide regional balance (as he is from Maine) but is highly qualified nonetheless would be William S. Cohen. Republican member of Congress from Maine, Secretary of Defense under Bill Clinton, his character and qualifications are impeccable and his independence would be intriguing. There's no telling if he'd accept it, but he would create no only a bounce but a shockwave through the race. As a life long Republican and one of the smartest men in America in terms of National Security issues, he could go toe to toe with anybody in this race and would create headlines like no one else. Put me down as a supporter of Kerry/Cohen 2004.

Posted by Andrew Dobbs at March 24, 2004 02:40 AM | TrackBack

Comments

Kerry & Cohen? My God, you might as well nominate a pair of sycamores. It'll be stiffest, most esoteric ticket in Democratic history since Adlai Stevenson brought the term "egg head" into the mainstream.

But, it has merits. The only time a Veep mattered in terms of his state was when LBJ ran with JFK. Hell, Cheney lived in Dallas until he decided he should be the running mate and rediscovered Wyoming! The regional balance argument doesn't matter because the nation's politics are more nationalized than at any time since 1836.

A friend of mine here on the Law faculty at OU had an idea: leave it to the convention to decide. And, as a lead-in, screen about fifteen competitors, and have Clinton, Carter, Dukakis, McGovern and Mondale eliminate one each week on national TV, a la the Trumpster.

Posted by: Keith G at March 24, 2004 08:20 AM

I really like Bill Richardson, but until we put Bush, Cheney & Rove into early retirement we can't afford the risk of the overwhelmingly negative campaign (specifically national security attacks) that would follow a Richardson nomination. For that reason, along with the charisma and moderate appeal of Mark Warner, I strongly support a Kerry/Warner '04 ticket. Hopefully Richardson can be Warner's VP in the 2012 election!

Posted by: Joe M at March 24, 2004 09:33 AM

Cohen? If you are going for a Republican, go for a maverick: McCain.

It won't be a 'Phant though.

Posted by: Matthew Saroff at March 24, 2004 01:11 PM

I've got to agree with the others who've nixed the idea of Cohen. First off, naming a Republican seems to show little faith in your party. Secondly, he wasn't even Clinton's most impressive Defense Secretary, that was Perry. If you're going to go with a Clinton cabinet member (other than Richardson) I like Donna Shalala. Plus I like Jay Rockefeller for points 1 and 3 and Ed Rendell for points 1 and 2. Vilsack's intriguing but I don't know much about him.

Posted by: Scott C at March 24, 2004 02:10 PM

I like the idea of giving the appearance at least of leaving it to the convention. Let's showcase all the potential stars. It might improve the convention's tv ratings for the week.

The idea of nominating a Republican leaves me cold, but if that's who the nominee and the convention should choose, I'd go along in a New York minute. My fantasy guy though is Gavin Newsom. So far he's shown more cajones than any Democrat I've seen this year. We're not going to beat Bush just by hating him. We need to show the American people that we have a vision of where this country needs to go. Newsom represents the future of the Democrat party. I'd go with the future.

Posted by: Houston at March 24, 2004 02:52 PM

Brad Henry would be a terrible choice...guy can't even manage to make a splash in God-forsaken Oklahoma. An accidental governor.

Posted by: blue at March 24, 2004 07:43 PM

"God-foresaken?" Losing to OU at football so badly, so often makes you people snippy.

But Henry (whom I've spent time with) is no VEEP prospect. He's a nice guy and a pretty good state legislative operator, but he's not national calibre.

You might as well propose Roy Barnes. Or Cynthia McKinney.

Posted by: Keith G at March 24, 2004 08:13 PM

What do people think about Gov. Tom Vilsack or Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)? Vilsack would probably bring Iowa, and Cantwell could concievably help in Oregon, which was close in 2000.

Posted by: Eduardo J. Klein at March 24, 2004 09:17 PM

Vilsack is not in a position to be VP right now. He's having problems with his budget in his own state. And kerry will win Iowa by more the Gore did without Vilsack. To me its obvious Gen. Clark is the best choice. He helps in many parts of the world with independents and also would more than likely carry ARK and LA when he goes stumping down there with Clinton. he also helps with the Military vote. Not to mention carry is fighting the notion he is weak on defense. Clark shuts that talk up

Posted by: Brent at March 24, 2004 09:43 PM

Maria Cantwell is OUR Senator and you can't have her. Richardson doesn't want it and said so - he's at home as King of New Mexico.

Cohen is a great choice, and Clinton thought so when he picked Cohen as Secretary of Defense. .

Cohen reportedly is a quarter inch of charm covering hard cold steel. He moved his Philosophy library to the Pentagon when he took office. Unlike Cheney who, like Woddrow F. Call, don't know a philosophy. I will pay cash money to see Cohen debate Cheney.

Brenda in Seattle

Posted by: Brenda Helverson at March 24, 2004 10:05 PM

I agree with the general assessment of Cohen, above, and that is why I have reservations. You want to have an inspired ticket of Platonic Statesmen, yes, put Cohen up. Indeed, I suggest all of you read Richard Fenno's SENATORS ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL (1996) which has a fairly detailed account by Fenno of his time travelling with the campaiging former Senator Cohen. Kerroheny is a ticket that warms my intellectual heart, but it is also a ticket that cools the enthusiasm of the dwindling number of swing voters, and it can't activate the base.

And, though I hate to be the one making this argument, don't go selling Cheney short . . . the man studied political science and philosophy at University of Wisconsin (one of the best programs in the world) and had an APSA fellowship to work on Capitol Hill before the lure of GOP power circles took him away from the academy.

Posted by: Keith G at March 25, 2004 07:05 AM

I don't know if anyone is still reading this thread, but let me comment. I was just throwing names out there, I really know nothing about Brad Henry. I just hadn't heard anyone say his name which makes him a likely candidate for VP. Also, let me reiterate- NO ONE VOTES FOR THE VP. VPs have 2, maybe 3 things that will help the ticket- 1. Organization in their home state for having been the boss of the party/politics for so long, 2. The VP bounce that is generated in the polls after the VP is announced and sometimes 3. Turning out minority group support in key areas if that person is a member of the community. Having said that, people WILL vote AGAINST a VP- case in point, Dan Quayle. So you don't want a bad choice. Picking Clark/Dean/Edwards/Gephardt/Graham or any other Presidential candidate will end your chances of any real VP bounce because the media coverage won't be "check out this great person you've never heard of" but rather "look- he picks someone everyone already knows about, move along." That's why we need someone unique. I think that Cohen would be great, Landrieu would be pretty good, Warner would be very good. I'm okay with any of them.

As for leaving it to the convention, there are definite pros, but i see them as outweighed by the cons. Pro- the convention gets watched by more people, they see the parade of speeches and we get a huge convention bounce. Cons- we have to wait until late July to get our VP, which means s/he has less time to raise money, speak on behalf of the ticket, etc. I like the idea of naming the VP in late May, right when the summer media lull (the one that always creates sensational stories like SARS or Shark attacks...) rolls around and we get a bounce there and then have a great convention that should provide something of a bounce in late July. i like Kos' idea of a shadow cabinet, we can start rolling that out after the convention to keep the bounce growing. Thats a whole other post though...

Posted by: Andrew D at March 26, 2004 02:08 AM
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