Burnt Orange Report

Electoral Math Looks Good

By Andrew Dobbs

Barron's commissioned John Zogby to poll all 50 states (and the District of Columbia) to measure the shaping up of electors for 2004. Its conclusion is a perhaps predictable yet still exciting one: Bush is in serious trouble:

Barron's Online asked noted pollster John Zogby, president and chief executive officer of Zogby International, to lay out the electoral map as he sees it, based on various polls conducted throughout the country, including his own.

The table below spells it out: Senator Kerry is ahead in 18 of the so-called Blue states (including the District of Columbia), representing some 226 electoral votes.

President Bush leads in 21 of the Red states, with 176 electoral votes. A dozen more states, with 136 electoral votes, are considered "in play."

But if Zogby's current estimate holds, all the Massachusetts senator will need to do is take Ohio and Florida to pass the 270-vote threshold and win the presidency.

President Bush, despite his incumbency, would seem to have an uphill battle here, if things continue as they are now.

Why? Because only four of the states that we list as "in play" (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington) were Blue states in 2000, when they delivered a majority for Vice-President Al Gore.

The other eight states that are "in play" now (including Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Missouri), with a treasure trove of 98 electoral votes, were part of Bush Country in 2000.

That suggests the Democratic presidential candidate is holding his base of support better than the president is, allowing Senator Kerry to peel off a couple of the paler Red states from the president's column.

"National poll numbers are irrelevant," Zogby says. "What is relevant is how the president plays in the Red states, and how the Democrats play in the Blue states."

The whole "rush to the middle" strategy that has defined presidential politics since time immemorial (or at least since 1992) might come to an end thanks to George "Uniter Not Divider" Bush. Why? Because we are as divided as ever today. Culturally liberal voters on the coasts and the industrial Midwest won't vote for Bush. Culturally conservative voters in the Sun Belt, South and Mountain West won't vote for Kerry. Bada bing, we are at 226-176 and all Kerry has to do is remind Ohio about how many jobs have been lost thanks to GWB and he's at 246, wisely pick a running mate (like New Mexico's Bill Richardson) who will play well in Arizona (256 now), and maybe even in increasingly Hispanic Colorado (265) and focus on holding onto Minnesota (275) and he's President. Plus, contentious Senate races in Colorado, Florida and Missouri might bring out enough Democratic voters to swing those states Kerry's way, adding FL and MO to the total makes it 318- a solid victory.

The great thing is that with such a small number of true swing states, we can focus our money and Bush's $200 million might not be that big a deal after all. I suppose he could run ads in some of the less sure Blue states such as Maine, New Mexico or Iowa, but Kerry will be able to point to his radical social agenda in Maine, his easily decried (from both Left and Right) immigration plans in New Mexico (which will be solid if my dreamboat running mate is chosen) and his horrific policy on jobs and trade in Iowa. The election is going to be tough.

Of course, the usual caveat that anything can happen in 8 months applies here. 8 months ago Howard Dean looked like the likely Dem candidate, Bush looked absolutely unbeatable and the idea that we might have a shot at either the House or the Senate seemed laughable at best. Now we could potentially have Dem control of the federal government. An Osama bin Laden capture would give a good boost to Bush, dropping Cheney and picking a more likable running mate (Owens of CO or Tom Ridge would both be very good for Bush) or several months of just bang up job creation would turn the corner for Bush. Still, the way I look at it, in 2000 Bush was 500,000 votes down from the Democrats, about 3 million down if you add in Nader voters. Has he really made that many friends in the past 4 years? Sizeable numbers of Democrats voted for him, 50% of Hispanics voted for him and moderates saw him as a more personable version of his father- level headed and middle of the road. He's lost all the Democrats, he's lost most of his Hispanic support and moderates are a dying breed in this divided country. I don't see him making it out alive, but we'll see come November.

Kerry/Richardson 2004!