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February 03, 2004

Kerry, Edwards and Clark

By Andrew Dobbs

Alright, I know that some of my TB sufferers (True Believerism that is) will accuse me of being some demon borne of hell and a traitor to all that is good and just for suggesting that Dean is done but I'm going to back it up now.

By now we have had 2 Southern states (SC and OK), 3 Midwestern states (IA, ND and MO), 2 Northeastern states (NH and DE) and 2 Southwestern states (AZ and NM) weigh in. We've had 3 states with large African American populations (SC, MO and DE), 2 states with large Hispanic populations (NM and AZ), 4 states with mostly White populations (IA, NH, ND and OK), 4 Conservative states (SC, ND, OK and AZ), 3 Liberal (in terms of their Democrats) states (NH, IA and DE) and 2 Moderate states (NM and MO). We've had states that are largely agricultural (IA and ND), 2 states with particularly large urban areas (AZ and MO) and 3 states that went for Gore (IA, NM and DE) and 6 that went for Bush (AZ, NH, ND, OK, SC and MO). If you haven't won a state yet, you aren't going to win one probably.

That means that Gephardt (check), Lieberman (check), Braun (check) Dean, Kucinich and Sharpton should all be gone. Clark is hanging on by the skin of his teeth and Edwards is on the brink. We have had a very diverse group of states speak and they have spoken almost unanimously- Kerry (with a side of Edwards and a dallop of Clark). It's time for everyone else to leave so we can have a nominee as soon as possible so we can start raising money, crafting message, building organization and beating Bush.

Posted by Andrew Dobbs at February 3, 2004 10:58 PM | TrackBack

Comments

It'll all happen in due time.... Lieb is out tonight, and several more will surely drop out in the next few weeks. There's little point getting Sharpton or Kucinich to drop out. They're vanity candidates and they're not running for president. They're running to get their issues out there and to get their names and faces out there. I don't really have a problem with it. It happens everytime and it's never really hurt us. Just give them their time of day, and make sure they're with us when it's all wrapped up. They will be.

As for Dean.... I'll give him a few more weeks before I call for him to drop out. I say that we let the people of Michigan (I'll bet on a Kerry landslide there), Washington (Dean's stand?) and Maine to call for Dean to drop out. If Dean loses bad in those states, then it'll probably be time for him to go, but the man has done so much for the party and America that I think we deserve to give him a final chance to prove himself.

Posted by: ByronUT at February 3, 2004 11:28 PM

The fact that Dean wasn't trying to win any of the states today kinda puts a small crimp in your reasoning. That would have been like saying, "oh Clark and Lieberman are out of the race since they didn't get any votes in Iowa" Well, duh, if they gave up on them what do you expect. Write my an obituary later.

And another point which I find almost downright hilarious. You want everyone to leave so that we can raise money, craft a message, and build an organization as a party. Um, HELLO??? That's only been what Dean has done for this party for the last year Andrew. It's great that everyone want to imitate it, but why try to write off Dean and then spend your time trying to rebuild what you have just asked to be written off?

Posted by: Karl-T at February 3, 2004 11:40 PM

Don't forget, the sooner the contest is over, the sooner the media coverage of it will stop! Maybe having it drawn out is a Good Thing...

Posted by: Jason Young at February 4, 2004 12:05 AM

Don't forget, the sooner the contest is over, the sooner the media coverage of it will stop! Maybe having it drawn out is a Good Thing...

An excellent point. As long as the Democratic contenders don't do or say anything that would undermine the eventual nominee's chances in the fall, it's in the best interest of the party to have the contest continue.
For what they're worth, the polls have shown a drop in Dubya's approval ratings since the media began to focus attention on Iowa. The greater coverage given to Democrats has meant that there has been less coverage given to Bush-Rove propaganda and White House photo ops. Even silliness like Dean's "I have a scream" speech drew attention away from the state of the union speech.

Terry McAuliffe may think it's to the party's benefit to have a de facto nominee by mid February. But as long as the tone remains civil, it won't hurt to have the contest drag into March.

Posted by: Tim Z at February 4, 2004 04:09 AM

I agree, to what? I agree that the contesst has got to stay alive and stay honorable. It's not hard to do, certainly not impossible and it is in our party's, our country's and our own best interests. Jason and Tim are right, the honest stuff (the news) not the Rove report is what people are seeing and feeling. Thanks for the good job you guys do! charles the Chair

Posted by: charles the chair at February 4, 2004 06:49 AM

I suppose I see your point about a prolonged primary season being better for us than we thought but also remember that familiarity breeds contempt so this bounce might end up tapering off in the near future and end up hurting us. The overriding point, of course is that stay in or stay out but by this point if you haven't won you aren't going to win and your chances at winning the nomination are slim to none. It will almost certainly be Kerry with a slight chance for Edwards and an even slighter chance for Clark.

Posted by: Andrew D at February 4, 2004 01:50 PM

"But as long as the tone remains civil, it won't hurt to have the contest drag into March."

I agree, Tim Z. That is an excellent point. I think that a candidate being foisted upon us--i.e. everyone else drops out--will hurt the party, because we have a lot of voters who normally don't vote Democrat, who are active in either the Clark or Dean campaigns (for example), and I believe that they will stay with us as they are more familiar with our candidates. It will only help the party. The voters will feel that their vote counts, and Terry MacAuliffe is not choosing our candidate for us.

Posted by: leodem at February 5, 2004 09:55 PM
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