Burnt Orange Report

An Iowa Alliance: Kucinich and Edwards

By Byron LaMasters

FOX News just interviewed a Kucinich spokesman who said that Dennis Kucinich was asking his supporters in Iowa caucuses where Kucinich was not viable (meaning he receives less than 15% of the preliminary support in the caucus) to support John Edwards. In turn, Edwards supporters in caucuses where Kucinich is viable and Edwards are not would back Kucinich. I can't find anything on FOX News or Google on the web yet, but according to a kos diary, it's also been reported on MSNBC.

At first glance this makes little sense. John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich probably have the least in common ideologically of the five candidates competing in Iowa. The official reason given by the Kucinich campaign was that Edwards and Kucinich were the only candidates running positive campaigns in Iowa and that they both had a lot of respect for each other. Strategically, however, this move makes sense for both candidates.

First of all, Edwards and Kucinich have different bases in Iowa. This is significant because there are likely to be a number of places in Iowa where both candidates can benefit from this deal. Kucinich will probably meet the 15% viability threshhold in caucuses in the university towns such as Ames and Iowa City, where Edwards may have trouble reaching 15%. In Edwards strongholds, said to be in the rural, more conservative and western parts of the state, Kucinich is very unlikely to meet the 15% creditability threshhold, but a few votes in individual caucuses will help Edwards.

Second, while Kucinich has no realistic shot of winning the Democratic nomination, he knows that his support will increase (and he can win more delegates and influence at the convention) if the more liberal candidates are knocked out. Many people who would be inclined to support Dennis Kucinich because of his opposition to the war in Iraq instead supported Dean. If for some reason Dean is knocked out of the race, Dennis Kucinich would be the only candidate in the race who actively opposed the war in Iraq last Spring, and some of Dean's anti-war supporters would gravitate towards Kucinich. While politically it makes more sense for Kucinich supporters to support Dean where Kucinich doesn't meet the viability threshhold, strategically, at least from the perspective of the Kucinich campaign, it does not. Likewise, it's in Kucinich's interest to knock out Dick Gephardt, as Gephardt is the only other candidate who has a long and consistent pro-labor and anti-NAFTA record. The same thing goes for Gephardt. If he is knocked out of the race, Dennis Kucinich would be the only candidate in the race who actively opposed NAFTA and the WTO, and some of Gephardt's labor supporters would gravitate towards Kucinich. As for Kerry, he has a consistently liberal record in the Senate and it is in Dennis Kucinich's strategic interests to knock him out of the race, because Kucinich has a better chance of racking up votes and delegates if he is in a race in the late primaries with a more conservative candidate such as Joe Lieberman or John Edwards.

Will this be a factor? Or will Kucinich supporters just go ahead and move to Dean? Who knows. We'll find out tonight.