Burnt Orange Report
News, Politics, and Fun From Deep in the Heart of Texas
|
|
Burnt Orange ReportNews, Politics, and Fun From Deep in the Heart of Texas |
|
 |
 |
January 15, 2004Live!...from IowaBy Karl-Thomas MusselmanGreetings all back in the Lone Star State. I am currently in Des Moines, Iowa in the hub of state activity for the Dean campaign, awaiting the arrival of the 200+ Texas Rangers coming in the next couple of days. I actually was in Manchester, New Hampshire for some time last week and it has been an experience to canvass and work in both states to see the different styles of operation. NH- Slower paced, methodical, colder.
It is my feeling, being on the inside but not too far in, that the actual vote is not reflective of the polls. Polling for caucuses is harder than for primaries. In this contest, there are many new voters going to caucus that have not before. I know, I've seen it first hand and keep hearing it from the field. These people are not your "likely Democratic Caucus goers". Many of them are Independents as well, not being targeted by pollsters or most of the other candidates. In addition the polls don't take into account all the work that is going in this weekend. We have Dean people everywhere... Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Council Bluffs, Davenport, Dubuque, Ottumwa, Waterloo, Ames, Boone, Mason City, Burlington, Sioux City, Fort Dodge... and there are of course lower level places where people are being forwarded to. No other campaign is matching that canvassing power. Being conservative, if even 2,500 volunteers knock on 150 doors each for the weekend (I knocked on 100 a day in my experience), that is 375,000 doors. If we get the 35% contact rate that is typical, that is just over 130,000 people. Then, if we even get a measly 10% of them to be IDed as Dean supporters, in addition to getting many to become leaning Dean going into the caucus, that's over 10,000 new people this weekend alone. The most Democrats that have ever shown up are estimated to be 125,000 in 1988 (which are claimed to be inflated as well). So a 10% bounce on the weekend is not entirely impossible. The other candidates do not have that capability; Gephardt is the only one who comes close with his Union support (though it seems to end at that). Yes, these numbers seem like the usual overblown expectations. But this time, the people and the estimates are based on facts from reality. I could be wrong, but I will say now that I think that the eventual Caucus delegate results are not going to reflect what the polls and pundits are now chattering about. That's the latest from the field.
Comments
Post a comment
|
|
About Us
About/Contact
Advertising Policies
Donate
Archives
May 2005
April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003 August 2003 July 2003 June 2003
Recent Entries
Election Liveblog
Polls to Close in Less than 2 Hours Hold on to your light-sabers, young Jedi apprentices Election Open Thread Final Thoughts On UK Elections (From Me At Least) Joe Moreno Remembered Rep. Joe Moreno (D-Houston) killed in accident Nerd Quotas Greed, for lack of a better word, is good May 6 is No Pants Day UK Election Open Thread Ajai Raj on his Arrest Filibuster Frist on your campus How Republican Are you? University Democrats on the Ann Coulter Event Atrios makes a silly Ann Coulter on Hannity and Colmes ACL Rumors Worst of Austin Poll Filibuster Frist
Categories
2004: Dem Convention (79)
2004: Presidential Election (570) 2008: Presidential Election (8) About Burnt Orange (124) Around Campus (144) Austin City Limits (137) Axis of Idiots (29) Blogs and Blogging (133) BOR Humor (63) BOR Sports (59) Budget (16) Burnt Orange Endorsements (14) Congress (40) Crime and Punishment (1) Dallas City Limits (97) Elsewhere in Texas (10) Get into the Action! (5) GLBT (149) Houston City Limits (29) International (96) Intraparty (39) National Politics (492) Oh, you know, other stuff. (29) Politics for Dummies (11) Pop Culture (62) Redistricting (255) Social Security (30) Texas Lege (110) Texas Politics (677) That Liberal Media (2) The Economy, Stupid (15) The Stars At Night Are Big And Bright (1)
BOR Edu.
University of Texas
University Democrats
BOR News
The Daily Texan
The Statesman The Chronicle
BOR Politics
DNC
DNC Blog: Kicking Ass DSCC DSCC Blog: From the Roots DCCC DCCC Blog: The Stakeholder Texas Dems Travis County Dems U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett State Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos State Rep. Dawnna Dukes State Rep. Elliott Naishtat State Rep. Eddie Rodriguez State Rep. Mark Strama
Linked to BOR!
Alexa Rating
Truth Laid Bear Ecosystem Technoranti Link Cosmos Blogstreet Blogback
Polling
American Research Group
Annenberg Election Survey Gallup Polling Report Rasmussen Reports Survey USA Zogby
Texas Stuff
A Little Pollyana
Austin Bloggers DFW Bogs DMN Blog In the Pink Texas Inside the Texas Capitol The Lasso Pol State TX Archives Quorum Report Daily Buzz George Strong Political Analysis Texas Law Blog Texas Monthly Texas Observer
TX Dem Blogs
100 Monkeys Typing
Alandwilliams.com Alt 7 Annatopia Appalachia Alumni Association Barefoot and Naked BAN News Betamax Guillotine Blue Texas Border Ass News The Daily DeLay The Daily Texican Dos Centavos Drive Democracy Easter Lemming Esoterically Get Donkey Greg's Opinion Half the Sins of Mankind Jim Hightower Houtopia Hugo Zoom Latinos for Texas Off the Kuff Ones and Zeros Panhandle Truth Squad Aaron Peña's Blog People's Republic of Seabrook Pink Dome The Red State Rhetoric & Rhythm Rio Grande Valley Politics Save Texas Reps Skeptical Notion Something's Got to Break Southpaw Stout Dem Blog The Scarlet Left Tex Prodigy ToT View From the Left Yellow Doggeral Democrat
TX GOP Blogs
Beldar Blog
Blogs of War Boots and Sabers Dallas Arena Jessica's Well Lone Star Times Publius TX Safety for Dummies The Sake of Arguement Slightly Rough
Daily Reads
&c.
ABC's The Note Atrios BOP News Daily Kos Media Matters MyDD NBC's First Read Political State Report Political Animal Political Wire Talking Points Memo CBS Washington Wrap Wonkette Matthew Yglesias
College Blogs
CDA Blog
Get More Ass (Brown) Dem Apples (Harvard) KU Dems U-Delaware Dems UNO Dems Stanford Dems
GLBT Blogs
American Blog
BlogActive Boi From Troy Margaret Cho Downtown Lad Gay Patriot Raw Story Stonewall Dems Andrew Sullivan
More Reads
Living Indefinitely
Blogroll Burnt Orange!
BOR Webrings
< ? Texas Blogs # >
<< ? austinbloggers # >> « ? MT blog # » « ? MT # » « ? Verbosity # »
Election Returns
CNN 1998 Returns
CNN 2000 Returns CNN 2002 Returns CNN 2004 Returns state elections 1992-2005 bexar county elections collin county elections dallas county elections denton county elections el paso county elections fort bend county elections galveston county elections harris county elections jefferson county elections tarrant county elections travis county elections
Texas Media
abilene
abilene reporter news alpine alpine avalanche amarillo amarillo globe news austin austin american statesman austin chronicle daily texan online keye news (cbs) kut (npr) kvue news (abc) kxan news (nbc) news 8 austin beaumont beaumont enterprise brownsville brownsville herald college station the battalion (texas a&m) corpus christi corpus christi caller times kris news (fox) kztv news (cbs) crawford crawford lone star iconoclast dallas-fort worth dallas morning news dallas observer dallas voice fort worth star-telegram kdfw news (fox) kera (npr) ktvt news (cbs) nbc5 news wfaa news (abc) del rio del rio news herald el paso el paso times kdbc news (cbs) kfox news (fox) ktsm (nbc) kvia news (abc) galveston galveston county daily news harlingen valley morning star houston houston chronicle houston press khou news (cbs) kprc news (nbc) ktrk news (abc) laredo laredo morning times lockhart lockhart post-register lubbock lubbock avalanche journal lufkin lufkin daily news marshall marshall news messenger mcallen the monitor midland - odessa midland reporter telegram odessa american san antonio san antonio express-news seguin seguin gazette-enterprise texarkana texarkana gazette tyler tyler morning telegraph victoria victoria advocate waco kxxv news (abc) kwtx news (cbs) waco tribune-herald weslaco krgv news (nbc) statewide texas cable news texas triangle
World News
ABC News All Africa News Arab News Atlanta Constitution-Journal News.com Australia BBC News Bloomberg Boston Globe CBS News Chicago Tribune Christian Science Monitor CNN Denver Post FOX News Google News The Guardian Inside China Today International Herald Tribune Japan Times LA Times Mexico Daily Miami Herald MSNBC New Orleans Times-Picayune New York Times El Pais (Spanish) Salon San Francisco Chronicle Seattle Post-Intelligencer Slate Times of India Toronto Star Wall Street Journal Washington Post
Powered by
Movable Type 3.15 |
|