Burnt Orange Report
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Burnt Orange ReportNews, Politics, and Fun From Deep in the Heart of Texas |
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November 10, 2003Kerry's Campaign ShakeupBy Andrew DobbsVia Kos and Yahoo News John Kerry has fired longtime campaign manager Jim Jordan. This, coupled with the earlier defection of Chris Lehane suggests that Kerry's campaign is what we always knew it to be- a bunch of incompetent beltway types who think that they are better than everyone else. Kerry has been running for president since he was in the womb and he knows that 2004 is his last chance. His whole career has been a series of calculations moving him towards this job. Its surprising that for someone who has been preparing for this chance his entire life that he fouled up so bad when was finally offered to him. Rather than ignoring Howard Dean and letting him stew in anonymity he rose his profile by attacking him in a way that seemed desparate and cynical. Rather than spending his money on building a grassroots movement he tried a top down structure and was undercut by Dean again. He is very far down in New Hampshire and this shakeup suggests that chaos is reigning at Kerry Campaign HQ. NH has always been must-win for Kerry and it looks like Kerry's lifelong dream is over for good. Its a shame- he'd make a fine president and he's a good Senator. But people have never wanted a patrician, New England liberal Washington insider. Only once did such a candidate win- Kerry's archetype JFK in 1960- but Kerry is no Kennedy and America has lost its innocence and hero worship since then. Kerry's lofty rhetoric is looked at suspiciously while a hard-headed pragmatist like Howard Dean is favored. This new development is yet another nail in Kerry's presidential coffin. With Kerry's collapse, Clark's disorganization, the two biggest unions behind Dean (thus killing Gep's chances for an AFL-CIO endorsement), Edward's inability to move out of the cellar and Lieberman's disconnect with the party's activist base Dean is well on his way to winning the nom. He needs to fend off the attacks, avoid making stupid mistakes and he can coast into the primaries. Its time to train our guns at GWB and find a way to win in November. Posted by Andrew Dobbs at November 10, 2003 02:32 PM | TrackBack
Comments
Andrew, I largely agree with your assessment of Kerry. Actually, all things considered, I think he's the weakest serious Dem candidate (well, I could ask for Sharpton, but it won't happen). He has all of Dean's liabilities: the hard left ideology coupled with the condenscending "I know better than you do" attitude towards people he disagrees with, but while he might not come off like a jerk like Dean not infrequently does (admit it, he does), he does seem more of a, well, snob. Plus, given his twisting over the war recently, it would be hard for him to make a coherent critique anybody with a consistent position on Iraq. And, unlike Dean, he doesn't have the ability to fire up liberal voters. He can't inspire anyone. Bush inspires me, I'm willing to go all out to fight for his election, and I know a lot of you feel the same way about Dean, but honsestly, who cares about Kerry? All things considered, I think we'd spank him the worst. But we most likely wont get that opportunity. I would agree, Dean would probably have the Dem nomination locked up ... except for the proportional allocation of the delegates. A plurality doesn't get you nearly as much in the Dem. primaries as it does in ours. If everyone else doesn't drop out after the first few primaries, if they stick around and keep getting 15 or 20 percent of the vote or so, you could easily wind up with no candidate having a majority going into the convention. Especially since 20% of your delegates aren't up for grabs in the primary. Dean would have more votes than anyone else, and might be close to 50%, but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. It could be a very interesting primary season. Sherk Posted by: Sherk at November 10, 2003 03:33 PMAs much fun as a real convention might be in theory, it would be disastrous for the Dems. If we don't have a unified voice, a candidate and a campaign going all summer, we are guaranteed to lose. I hope that Dean will pick another candidate (hopefully Wes Clark) and ask them to be his running mate, effectively putting their delegates together. Also, promising Edwards the AG spot or Gephardt for Secretary of Commerce/Labor something else might wrap it all up. Posted by: Andrew D at November 11, 2003 04:37 AM
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