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September 15, 2003

Almost only counts in horse shoes, hand grenades and Texas politics...

By Andrew Dobbs

Alright, I know we lost last night, and that sucks but I feel encouraged. I figured we'd lose, in fact, I thought 12 would pass with at least a 20 point margin (as that is what recent elections have shown) and probably more because the Democratic base of S. Texas was against it. Instead, we came within 23,000 votes out of a couple million cast and lost by less than 2%. So what does this mean?

Most importantly- Democratic ideas and policies are popular all over the state, even in places where Democrats aren't really popular. We won in places where Democrats never win. Tort reform is one of the cornerstones of the GOP's philosophy and platform. in 1994 Karl Rove only let Bush talk about 4 issues- crime, education, welfare reform and tort reform. When you boil down the Texas GOP's platform and sift through the outrageous, racist, ignorant and destructive foolishness that is their ideology, you find tort reform in a very special place. But their base has weighed it, measured it and found it wanting.

Essentially, if you put the two parties up to a political "Pepsi Challenge" of sorts- no labels, just policies- they prefer the taste of Democrats in places where they normally don't. Indeed, we underperformed in important places, but those voters will go Democratic anyways in a regular election. If we can keep those yellow dogs and then add some Republicans who like what they hear when they get past the "D" label, we can make some much needed gains.

Of course people don't care what you say on your commercial or your direct mail piece- they are convinced to vote against their conventional wisdom and for a different party by hearing candidates and supporters they trust tell them face to face what they want to do. Tony Sanchez is the wrong model, someone like Howard Dean or Paul Wellstone- grassroots, personalized, face to face campaigning with creativity and enthusiasm will win where ad buys and cynicism has lost.

We've lost the battle but learned some valuable lessons for the ensuing war.

Posted by Andrew Dobbs at September 15, 2003 12:48 AM | TrackBack

Comments

When you boil down the Texas GOP's platform and sift through the outrageous, racist, ignorant and destructive foolishness that is their ideology, you find tort reform in a very special place. But their base has weighed it, measured it and found it wanting.

I'm confused. Are you saying the Republican Party is outrageous, racist and destructively foolish, but Republicans ("their base") are not? Well, at least in regard to tort reform? And presumably, both the Republican Party and Republicans are outrageous, racist and destructively foolish on crime, education and welfare reform?

If you really wish to garner some crossover voting to the Democrats, I recommend you find a less offensive manner in which to make your pitch.

Posted by: Mark Harden at September 15, 2003 07:21 AM

Althought comment #1 has a good point, however, I am one of those "base" voters. The GOP (of which I am a staunch member) just lost me on the next election. Their hardline stance on tort reform, combined with the slash and burn tactics of the Texas legislature, has caused me to want to cast my vote in another direction.

Posted by: A. Berryma at September 15, 2003 07:55 AM

I think I love you, A. Berryma.

I'm not sure that pure populism is going to win the next Presidential election. I'm also not positive that everyone who voted against tort reform is going to vote Democratic. I do think that centrism is going to be a factor in the next election and the party that can depict itself as most centrist will win the most swing voters. Bush has painted himself in a corner, but I also think that Dean may come off as too extremist in the public's view (and Republican spin). Frankly, the zealotry of Deanistas can even turn a leftist moderate like me off a little. But I do admire the Dean Internet operation and the way that it's bringing youth back into politics.

Posted by: omit at September 15, 2003 12:45 PM

Building the Democratic Majority: "The most important reason the Dems message always seems less effective then the Republicans’ is cultural, not political. The “base” of the Republican coalition is a lot more homogeneous then the Democrats’ – both demographically and ideologically – and there is a lot of overlap between the beliefs and agendas of the various groups that comprise it. Joe Republican is often a gun owner, churchgoer, and anti-tax supporter all at the same time. This makes it easier for the Republicans to satisfy their base and then go out hunting for swing voters elsewhere.

The Democratic coalition is different. It is a collection of very distinct cultural groups (minorities, professionals, union members, single women) that agree on some issues, but disagree strongly on others. Promises made to win one group in the coalition often annoy others. This makes the message Democratic politicians convey seem more complex, muddled and contradictory then the Republicans (and it also makes the democratic primaries constant exercises in fratricide, as candidates struggle to create coalitions of the often feuding democratic constituencies)."

Posted by: omit at September 15, 2003 01:21 PM

Okay, in response:

1) I do not suppose that all the anti-12 voters in this election will become Dems, but if we can gain solid ground in rural areas and the suburbs and then pull out a strong GOTV effort in urban areas and S. Texas we can gain some ground.

2) The Republican Party is racist, ignorant, foolish and outrageous. I won't mince words. From their inception to the present day their intentions have been directly opposed to the needs of Texans and anybody who says otherwise is fooling themselves.

3) There is a simple message that can unite all of our party- Democrats play fair and want to make sure that people that work hard and play by the rules get ahead and live comfortably. Republicans believe in rewarding only cheating, wealth and privelege, regardless of character or effort.

Posted by: Andrew D at September 15, 2003 02:33 PM

The Democratic coalition is different.

What they term a "coalition" can be as easily described as a collection of special interests, with all of their other points still applying...except for the smug self-righteousness of their more "subtle" ideology.

Posted by: Mark Harden at September 15, 2003 02:42 PM

INTRODUCING THE ALL-PURPOSE POLITICAL FLAME!

"The [INSERT PARTY NAME HERE] is racist, ignorant, foolish and outrageous. I won't mince words. From their inception to the present day their intentions have been directly opposed to the needs of [INSERT STATE NAME HERE] and anybody who says otherwise is fooling themselves."

Sorry, Andrew. I couldn't resist.

Posted by: Owen Courrèges at September 15, 2003 04:20 PM

"The Republican Party is racist, ignorant, foolish and outrageous. I won't mince words. From their inception to the present day their intentions have been directly opposed to the needs of Texans and anybody who says otherwise is fooling themselves."

Really? Can't you disagree with the logic of a person's arguments without questioning their character or intelligence. The fact that you support higher taxes / affirmative action / legal abortion / trade restrictions / entitlement programs / etc. does not make people who disagree with you evil or idiots.

Posted by: Sherk at September 15, 2003 06:16 PM

Not just that, but the irony of him saying the Republican Party has been racist from its inception. Who freed the slaves, Andrew D? Yeah, that's what I thought. No one ever appreciates the ironies of 'redistricting is a war on White Democrats' - Austin Chronicle - except me.

Posted by: TX Pundit at September 15, 2003 06:40 PM

Yeah, the GOP freed the slaves, but who forgot to keep their promise of freedom and equality after they were freed? We (democrats) had to pick up your slack 100 years later.

Posted by: Mike at September 15, 2003 06:52 PM

Additionally, I claimed that they've been opposed to the needs of TEXAS since their inception. From the carpetbaggers looting the prostrate South for their Republican interests in the North to today, the GOP has been 180 degrees from the needs of Texas.

Also, I am not necessarily for higher taxes, but fairer taxes- let's lower the burden on the working class and middle class and make corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share. I am not in favor of trade restrictions, I support NAFTA and most free trade agreements but would like to see a fairer deal for poor nations. And I tend to oppose entitlement programs, I think we should find a way to make work pay. Republicans want to get rid of the entitlement programs without making wages fairer or providing necessary services cheaper for the working poor. 15 million Americans work full time and are below the poverty line- that is unacceptable.

And this is a way of punishing White Dems. Tom DeLay is a racist. He wants the parties divided by race- Dems for the minorities, Republicans for the Whites. He knows that minorities vote less often than whites and that minorities tend to not have much money to donate to their party and thus the Democratic Party will be defunded. He knows that getting rid of all the White Dems in Texas is an important step in weakening the party nationally.

Finally, we are a collection of special interests. School children are a special interest. Working families are a special interest. Veterans are a special interest. The elderly are a special interest. Immigrants are a special interest. The environment is a special interest. Civil rights for all is a special interest. Standing up for those who don't have a voice is a special interest. The Democratic Party works hard for all of these people and ideas- the Republican Party works to undermine every single one of them every day. So take your coalition and shove it up your ass, Mark.

Posted by: Andrew D at September 16, 2003 12:55 AM
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