Burnt Orange Report

Prop 12 has Narrow Lead

By Byron LaMasters

The Houston Chronicle reports:

Texans who say they are likely to vote in the Sept. 13 election favor Proposition 12 by a margin of 51 percent to 38 percent, according to a new poll.

The controversial measure authorizes the Legislature to cap damages in medical malpractice and other lawsuits.

Six percent are neutral on the issue and 5 percent don't know.

The Scripps Howard Texas Poll surveyed 1,000 adult Texans by telephone Aug. 7-21.

The pollsters asked Texans how likely it was that they would vote in the election. Sixty percent of those polled said they were very likely or somewhat likely to vote.

However, historically fewer than 10 percent of voters turn out for constitutional amendment elections. Proposition 12 is one of 22 amendments on the ballot.

Voters who identify themselves as Republicans are more likely to support Proposition 12 than are Democrats or independents. Sixty-three percent of Republicans favor the measure, compared to 43 percent of Democrats and 47 percent of independent voters.

The poll also showed stronger support in South Texas than in other regions of the state. Medical liability has been a big issue in South Texas, where doctors staged a high-profile walkout last year to protest rising insurance costs. Sixty percent of voters in South Texas said they support capping damages, while support in all other regions is 50 percent or 51 percent.

I was not surprised that a small majority of Democrats oppose Prop 12 and a slightly larger majority of Republicans support Prop 12. I am surprised, however, that south Texas is the area with the strongest support for Prop 12 considering that it is the most Democratic area of the state. So, what I'm guessing that this poll would suggest is that a slim majority of both parties support Prop 12 in south Texas, whereas support / opposition is more polarized along Republican / Democratic Party lines in the rest of the state. Makes sense, considering that the area of the state with the biggest health care problem is south Texas. Either way, polling cor a constitutional amendment election where less than ten percent of the population is likely to vote is always difficult and its hard to interpert the results. So, while I'd say that it's probably most likely that Prop 12 will pass, there's still a good chance that it could go either way. So, what does that mean? Yeah, you, you're vote matters.

Personally, I do find it ironic that the Pro-Prop 12 folks talk about protecting our Health Care, "...Texas families clearly see through that and agree that we need to stop medical lawsuit abuse and protect our health care", when at the same time Republican budget cuts are forcing 500,000 Children to lose health care benefits:

Beginning Monday, the more than 500,000 Texas children enrolled in the program will lose dental, vision, hospice and most mental health services. By 2005, 170,000 children will lose coverage completely.

The cuts will likely compound Texas' distinction as the worst in the nation when it comes to percentage of uninsured children. With 22 percent of its children lacking health insurance from 1999 to 2001, Texas ranked 50th among states, according to the 2003 Kids Count Data Book.

"This is a huge step backward," said Barbara Best, health project manager for Children's Defense Fund of Harris County. "Lots of states have faced funding shortfalls, but none has made such drastic cuts as Texas. It's particularly a shame because we made such a massive outreach to educate people about the program and get them enrolled since it began in May of 2000."

Best said the most frightening thing is that so many people still don't know about the cuts. She told of a health care center receptionist who was surprised when she mentioned them to her.

Many of those who knew about the cuts squeezed in last-minute appointments before the coverage ended.

So, lets see here. The folks urging us to vote YES on 12 (Republicans in the legislature, Gov. Perry, etc.) because it will save Health Care in Texas are the same folks who are cutting health care for hundreds of thousands of children in Texas. Hypocrisy anyone?

Posted by Byron LaMasters at September 2, 2003 01:58 PM | TrackBack