Burnt Orange Report

I agree that the decision to air ads in Texas is both risky, yet bold.

I'm afraid people unfamiliar with texas politics will not understand why George Bush is so popular. I think this misunderstanding/underestimation of George Bush is important not just for Texas (which Bush will carry in the fall), but also for the rest of the south, a place where any Democrat has to be competitive to have a shot at winning.

A couple points I disagree with...I don't think Dean already has Texas in the bag. So going after those delegates aggressively is good.

Secondly, while the money could maybe be spent elsewhere (like IA, NH or SC), this ad could also pay for itself. If it can garner national attention and invigorate Democrats nationwide, it could definitely lead to increased campaign contributions.

Dean still has a name-recognition problem in nationwide polls. So with this, a single media buy in a local market, he gets national attention among those people who are likely to be paying some attention to primary politics: primary voters. I don't think this was about winning Texas, I think it was a shrewd and economical decision on how to get the most exposure bang for his ad-budget dollar. Furthermore, by running it in dem-friendly Austin, coverage of the story is bound to yield Dean-positive man-on-the-street reactions. So whenever someone outside Texas hears/reads coverage of this ad, the message they'll get is: Dean has balls to take it to Bush's face, and the people down there in conservative Bush-country like it. That's a more effective message than whatever's in the actual ad.

I believe all the primaries are in effect proportional, so it's not a matter of Dean having nothing to gain in Texas in the primaries if he's already going to win the state. A 70% win is twice as good as a 35% plurality.

The main value, of course, is the national media buzz.

But even as an expenditure for the general election, I think it may have value. Dean almost certainly can't win Texas in the general election, but I think he can make Bush campaign there a little, which makes him look like a loser. It will be an easily countered threat, maybe even a net loss in terms of campaign funds/time expended versus campaign funds/time it forces the Bush campaign to expend. But the fact that Dean can even threaten to take Texas (if he can) would be psychologically powerful.

Quote:
"I'm afraid people unfamiliar with texas politics will not understand why George Bush is so popular."

I don't. Why is he?

Not Geniuses agrees with you? Stop the press!

In seriousness, Dean is simply poking the bull until he gets the horns.

Notice that he is running the ad just in Austin.
Quick check of the map shows that Austin and Waco are not close, thus, not going to be seen anywhere but the liberal bastion of Texas. Its not a "radical" move, its a Presidental Candidate running a political ad during campaign season. What a surprise. And in a state he'll lose by 20 points if he wins the nomination.

Byron you're my friend, so forgive me when I say that attending Dean rallies in Austin with a few hundred of your friends has gone to your head. The Dean campaign seems to have this permating all around it, and it just makes me smirk.
Now that Dean is the front runner, not only does he have to deal with the browbeating he is going to get for months every other candidate trying to gain traction, but the RNC will start to dig up some of those many skeleton's in the closet Dean is hiding and very curt to cut off. You're at the top now, but its a long way back down to the bottom. Angry messages only get you so far.

As we saw with the 2002 Democratic primary, blacks and hispanics vote more heavily than white voters. I would have to say that Lieberman probably has a lead, mainly name id, than Kerry than Gephardt and then Dean. There hasn't been a Texaas poll, but I would think that's how it shapes up right now.

Dean's base is gay and lesbian voters, urban and surburban NPR liberal whites, some environmentalist.

He has no base in the african american communities in Dallas, Houston and east texas. He has little support with hispanics in south texas. No major current Democratic officeholder has endorsed him. John Kerry has Henry Cisneros, John Edwards has Rep Eddie Bernice Johnson of Dallas, Martin Frost will most likely support Gephardt for instance.

It's a bit premature to annoint Dean as the front-runner in Texas.

I'd agree pc. Dean is the only candidate with a significant organization in Texas at this point. I think that's the point that I wanted to make. I'd agree that he'll have to work hard to win in Texas. You don't call Eddie Rodriguez major? Heh. It's not like Henry Cisneros is a current office holder, although, Cisneros will probably do more to more votes towards Kerry than Rodriguez will towards Dean.

Oh, and after thinking of the ad a little more, along with the Newsweek and Time articles and all the press Dean is getting (although the cycle began before this ad broke), I'm changing my mind on the Austin Ad. I think it'll probably end up looking pretty good. I still have some concerns about it (which I've mentioned), though.

I've posted several of my thoughts from the unofficial dean blog post on my thread here. I have concerns about the ad, mostly because one of my worries about Q2 for Dean was that he spent the most while raising the most (more than Lieberman who was paying his kids $100,000 to fundraise). I'm a little worried that Dean is burning money too fast, but then again, for $100,000, this ad is probably worth it for the exposure.