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July 23, 2003

A foot in the door in 2006?

By Andrew Dobbs

So we hear from Harvey Kronberg that Perry has “soft” approval ratings. I don’t have a subscription so I haven’t heard what the actual numbers are (anybody with a subscription, please let me know in the comments section), but I think that it is safe to say that both the voters and the GOP establishment are at best lukewarm towards Slick Dick and perhaps outright derisive. This creates an interesting landscape for 2006, and a possible opening for the Democrats in at least two, and perhaps more, of the top five statewide offices.

First, let’s look at Perry’s job as governor.

If Perry’s numbers hold up, as they appear apt to do, Perry’s dream of being the longest-serving governor in Texas history will be deferred. Moves from the direction of Kay Bailey Hutchison’s office suggest that she is apt to seek the Texas governor’s mansion- either as a stepping stone to national office or as a nice little retirement gift. If Hutchison throws her hat in the ring, it is all over- nobody in the state, Republican or Democrat, can beat Kay Bailey and Perry would be smart to look elsewhere for office. Tony Sanchez has said he’d like to run again and we might just let him, but he needs to spend his money on grassroots and to be isolated as much as possible so we can keep him from infecting the entire party like he did last time around.

Hutchison’s trek towards Congress Street will open up her senate seat. Sources within the GOP suggest that Dewhurst wanted to run for Gramm’s old seat that Cornyn won this past year but was told to bide his time at Lieutenant Governor instead. He is likely to seek that seat in 2006 if Hutchison decides to replace Perry. Could Perry challenge Dewhurst in the primary? They aren’t the closest of allies, but I suspect (call it a gut instinct) that Perry will stick around Texas and simply choose to retire. This essentially hands this nomination to Dewhurst and opens up a big opportunity for the Democrats. Dewhurst was the least popular statewide Republican in 2002 and the lack of Perry-wing support (which seems to comprise a large part of the party base) suggests that he will have a tougher time than expected (he is still a Republican, opening up a national fundraising base, and a friend and colleague of George Bush’s so it won’t be too bad). If Democrats put up a strong, moderate candidate with experience, good name ID and a base outside the typical Democratic base we can turn out the 40% that always vote Dem and another 11% of rural moderate voters. The person I see filling this role is Rep. Chet Edwards of Waco. I’m not sure that he’d be interested in running, but with strong military support, solid ag credentials, experience in Washington, increasingly high name ID with the redistricting fiasco hinging on his district and a base of devoted local support in central Texas that normally votes GOP he has a solid chance of beating Dewhurst for the US Senate. There are a lot of other factors that would go into this scenario, and his run would result in his congressional district probably going to a Republican, but trading one of our 32 congressmen for one of our two US Senators is a good exchange if you ask me.

Dewhurst’s run for Senate would open up the Lieutenant Governor’s job as well- the most powerful in State Government. The most likely candidate for this job is the popular and ambitious Comptroller Carole Keeton McClellan Rylander Strayhorn whatever her name is this week. She ran a lot of ads for a race that she wouldn’t have lost to Marty Akins if she admitted to being a member of al Qaida. When someone runs ads for a race they can’t lose they are running for an office they have yet to win. My gut feeling and the rumors suggest she has her eye on the Governor’s mansion, but if Hutchison runs that is out of the question. Chances are she’ll have to settle for the Lt. Gov. spot, which she most likely will win. She’s popular with Republicans and Democrats don’t hate her with nearly the intensity of Perry or even Dewhurst (she had the largest margin of victory in 2002, but once again that was a function of her incredibly weak opponent) and she’s been around for quite a while. Still, a spirited challenge from Pete Laney (who probably isn’t interested but who, as a moderate rural Democrat with long-time experience in state government and very high name ID, would be a good candidate) or perhaps long-serving, well-respected Dean of the Senate John Whitmire or even a highly unlikely reprisal of John Sharp would make the race interesting. I think we have an even better shot at her old job as Comptroller.

This is where the Democrats’ considerable farm team should come into play. Right now 4 of the 5 largest cities in the state have Democratic mayors. Houston’s Lee Brown is far too controversial to run. Dallas’ Laura Miller has a strong independent streak and a good record but would keep blacks and Hispanics at home, a death wish for Democrats in Texas. That leaves us with Will Wynn and Ed Garza. Wynn is a good guy with a sharp face and a great name, but he doesn’t have the experience yet and 2006 will be an election year for him. San Antonio’s Ed Garza is an ambitious and well-respected Hispanic that has balanced budgets before. Who knows who Republicans will run for this job? Maybe a hot shot state legislator with good budget credentials (Teel Bivins perhaps) but Ed Garza has a real chance of being elected to this spot if he runs a smart campaign and energizes the base. At the very least he will have statewide name ID after this race, putting him in a strong position for other races in the future and at most he’ll be in a fantastic position to run for Governor or another high profile position when the time is right. Garza is a mighty fine ace up the Democrats’ sleeve and he should be slipped into play in 2006.

Posted by Andrew Dobbs at July 23, 2003 11:28 AM | TrackBack

Comments

I hate to admit it, but unless Republicans continue to self destruct with overreaches, I really think that almost all statewide offices are out of reach for Dems in 2006. Still, having Chet Edwards run for Senate makes a lot of sense. In order for a Democrat to win statewide in Texas right now, the Democrat needs to be the kind of candidate that would be acceptable to minority voters, and able to help turn them out in large numbers. Also, a winning Texas Democrat would absolutely need to be acceptable to rural voters, Democrats, Independents and Republicans. We're still at the point where the suburban vote will be alligned against us almost regardless, so the rural / urban strategy is about the only one worth trying (we tried the suburban outreach strategy in 2002 - and it failed miserably). In an open-seat election, Chet Edwards would be a great candidate for U.S. Senate. I think he might be able to be talked into it... with or without redistricting, his days in district 11 are numbered. Edwards just might be able to reconstruct an urban/rural coalition to win. It's a longshot, but just might work.

I'd love to see Ed Garza on the 2006 ticket. He's a rising star in the party and he's a future Governor or Senator.

Posted by: ByronUT at July 23, 2003 11:55 AM

I think the Governor's performance at this point all but assures him a primary challenge. As for the fate of Dems in 2006, it depends on whether we actually have anybody willing to run for the statewide offices. Also, I think GOP performance in this state is inflated because of the cult figure they've created in W. If he is no longer president in 2006, then he will no longer be a factor in statewide elections. Our statewide candidates were much closer to winning, throughout this past election cycle than the election day results showed. The reason we lost so badly was W's election eve visit. For evidence to back this assertion up, look at Senator Cain's race. He absolutely killed his opponent in early voting, but lost pretty substansially on election day. When a Democrat wins early vote and loses election day, you know an aberation has occurred.

Posted by: Dave Wilkins at July 23, 2003 01:52 PM
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