Web Page:
http://www.bobdylan.com
Email:
phillip@burntorangereport.com
Bio:
I've grown up in Austin my whole life. I've graduated from UT. My thesis was an adaptation of Bob Dylan's album "Highway 61: Revisited" into a play. Something worth noting: if you take me to lunch at Dirty's, I'll write anything you want.
I am respectfully asking that you, as the state's Chief Financial Officer, provide badly needed information about the state's finances, for both the current biennium that Texans are coping with and the next one that legislators are preparing for. At the very least, I suggest that you update the revenue estimate for the 2010-11 biennium, as the Texas Constitution clearly contemplates -- and, I believe, requires you to do during times of such fiscal instability and uncertainty. I also urge you to provide additional information, particularly about the budget difficulties legislators are likely to face in balancing the 2012-13 Texas budget -- if only because it would be such a poor business practice not to.
Rick Perry interjected on Comb's behalf, claiming such simple requests are "bizarre":
Senator Watson has responded to Perry's characterization of his request for more transparency as "bizarre":
What I find bizarre is the reluctance to provide basic information and accountable government. On something as fundamental as the budget, the only thing information might damage is someone’s ability to deny the reality we’re facing.
Most businesses and most families wouldn't consider a current revenue estimate and up-to-date budget information, in the face of a budget crisis, to be bizarre.
What's interesting -- something I found last night -- is that the budget Perry signed at the end of last session contains a specific provision to ensure the Comptroller is prepared, with numbers, so that lawmakers can discuss for the state's budgeting process. From the Appropriations bill signed into law last session, Article IX, Part 6:
Sec. 6.15. Accounting for State Expenditures.
(a) Notwithstanding the various patterns of appropriation established in this Act, the Comptroller shall account for the expenditure of funds appropriated by this Act in a manner that allows for the reporting of expenditures attributable to each strategy in each agency's respective Strategic Planning and Budget Structure as approved by the Governor and the Legislative Budget Board. The information shall be recorded and maintained systematically in the state accounting system in a manner that provides for the integration of the state's budget data and the state's accounting data and to facilitate the state's budget development process.
One of my biggest projects for Burnt Orange Report in recent election cycles has been the "Burnt Orange Political Report." Launched on October 3, 2006 -- and reprised exactly two years later, on October 3, 2008 -- the report focused on competitive races in Texas. Feedback following those two reports, however, suggested that I move the timeline back a month and start earlier -- so here we are, with a new date, and a new name.
The Texas Political Report is an overview of the most competitive races in Texas. Today, it launches with region-based coverage of twenty-one State House races. The pages for each State House district will evolve and expand in the coming weeks as we gather more feedback from both campaigns and people on the ground on the state of the races.
The content on each of the State House races is straightforward:
An overview of the district, the issues, and the candidates in the race
Fundraising totals from the June 30 report in each race
Links to the district map and most recent election results for each race
A one-stop shop for website, Facebook, and Twitter links for each candidate in each race
In approximately a month, I will re-evaluate the races -- re-assessing field plans, and examining 30-day out finance reports -- and most likely introduce the traditional "ranking" system for the project. For now, each State House race feature contains an argument on how a Democrat could win. In the next month, we will be updating these pages regularly with fresh content, analysis, audio, video, and more -- notifying everyone of any changes on a regular basis. The box atop the top-center of our page will always link you back to this central page, so you can come back and revisit these posts as often as you'd like.
Without further ado, here are the races we've profiled this year:
I want to sincerely thank two people who helped me compile this report: Aimee from Annie's List, for all her hard work on researching and evaluating our outstanding female candidates for us, and Ed Martin, my Dad and long-time political consultant whose expertise is always invaluable.
Rep. Mark Homer represents Paris, Sulphur Springs, and a dozens more smaller towns in his six-county district in northeast Texas. Rep. Homer has represented the district since 1999, and every year Republicans target him -- and every year he wins. Like a lot of other Democrats who represent parts of rural Texas, Rep. Homer votes with his district and works across the aisle to do whatever his constituents want him to do for their community.
The votes in District 3 come down to the counties, and Lamar County -- the largest one -- has been home for Rep. Homer forever. As the publisher of the Paris News reported after the primary in an excellent analysis of voting strength within the district:
Fortunately for Homer and unfortunately for Cain, I don’t think the projected voter backlash against Democrats expected in November as a result of the decline in President Obama’s popularity is going to be a factor in this race.
In 2008, for example, when nationwide Obama had a resounding, landmark victory, Lamar County went solidly in the Republican column. The McCain/Palin ticket received 12,940 votes or 71 percent compared to Obama/Biden’s 5,240 votes or 28 percent.
While on the surface these totals seem to favor Cain locally, Lamar County went just as solidly with Democrat Homer in 2008 as it did the Republican presidential ticket, with the District 3 incumbent receiving a total of 10,535 votes in his home county, easily outdistancing the 7,698 votes his Republican challenger received.
Erwin Cain, a Dallas-area trial lawyer, has come under some fire within the district for not actually working in the area. A video against Cain in the Republican primary -- which didn't get a lot of attention, but did encapsulate a lot of the conversations about Cain going on in the district -- highlights his trial lawyer background:
Ed. note: The following is one of twenty races we are featuring in the Texas Political Report. Annie's List provided research and analysis for this race.
District 17 stretches across all or part of six counties (Bastrop, Lee, Burleson, Fayette, Colorado, and part of Brazos) in between Austin, College Station, and Houston. Though a largely rural district and often strongly Republican – Obama lost with 37.5% of the vote – no Democratic State House candidate has lost this district in a mid-term election in the last 15 years. In fact, until 2008 it was represented by longtime Democratic House Member Robby Cook, who chose to retire then.
The biggest issue in the district involves water reclamation, an issue one-term representative Kleinschmidt has working against him. He’s sold off his own water rights to water hustlers, a move that plays poorly in this rural district. Jacobs has made the issue a central part of her campaign. Jacobs owns and runs a family farm, and owns and operates Bastrop Cattle Company, a grass-fed beef ranch.
Why Jacobs Could Unseat Kleinschmidt
Kleinschmidt, a one-term representative, has little to show for his time in the legislature and was dubbed "furniture" by Texas Monthly. Democrats have been strong in past off-year elections in this district. Jacobs' home county, Bastrop County, is becoming more populous as part of the Austin metro area and provides her an organizing base. Rancher and businesswoman Jacobs is a serious candidate with serious money and hard-working team with an aggressive and well mapped-out field plan to cover the large territory. This is a tough but winnable race, and Jacobs knows her stuff. Her values and positions, as well as her background, fit well with the district that’s her home.
House District 34 represents the western portions of Corpus Christi, heavily focused around the Robstown area. Much like Rep. Joe Moody in El Paso or any of the conservative Democrats across Texas, Rep. Herrero represents a district that will always be challenged by Republicans -- even when the numbers just aren't there. Though Nueces County, on the whole, has shown signs of trending towards Republicans, this district (anchored in Rep. Herrero's hometown of Robstown) has not.
The race, like the Rep. Moody race in El Paso, is a re-match of the 2008 election. In 2008, Rep. Herrero won with 53% of the vote and outperformed President Obama in the district. In his years in office -- since he was first elected in 2004 -- Rep. Herrero has been one of the strongest champions for children's health care in the Legislature, in addition to being a vocal advocate for civil rights. His opponent, Connie Scott, is a Texans for Lawsuit Reform (TLR) backed-candidate -- focusing her election on an issue (tort reform) that proved to be a failing rallying cry when she lost two years ago.
Why Rep. Abel Herrero Returns Next Year
With a nearly 2:1 cash-on-hand advantage, Rep. Herrero will have the resources he needs to fund a strong field program and turns out the vote for him as it has in the last three election cycles. Scott will receive large amounts of money from TLR and other Republican groups down the stretch, but ultimately the district has a ceiling on how many Republican votes there are. It will be a close race -- and in this political climate, may even narrow down from 6 to 3 points this year -- but it is not a race even Republicans are pointing to as one they plan on winning this fall.
Ed. note: The following is one of twenty races we are featuring in the Texas Political Report. Annie's List provided research and analysis for this race.
District 47 is located in the southwest portion of Travis County and is home to both working families in middle-class neighborhoods and some very "nice" upper middle class neighborhoods. Although the district includes parts of traditionally "blue" Austin, it incorporates several large conservative neighborhoods in western Travis County. Though Democrats handily outnumber Republicans in the county, Bolton won her last two elections by narrow margins, so the race will definitely be one to watch. Pocketbook issues regarding jobs and education are important here, along with water issues in an area that includes communities around Lake Travis.
Republican Paul Workman is a prototypical Republican who doesn't stand out in any major way, but that could work for him. Bolton has done an excellent job securing support from female voters in recent years, and she should expect to do that again. On local issues, there is relatively little to use to challenge Rep. Bolton. Republicans are hoping to run this campaign much like the suburban races in Dallas and Harris county, focusing on national issues and ignoring the local races that matter to voters.
Why Rep. Valinda Bolton Returns Next Year
Obama won the district with a strong 54.1% in 2008, which means it’s still essentially a Democratic seat to lose. Rep. Bolton has built a strong record in her years in the legislature and has her own team running an aggressive and far-reaching field plan, as well as coordinated campaigns across the county working to protect her.
Ed. note: The following is one of twenty races we are featuring in the Texas Political Report. Annie's List provided research and analysis for this race.
District 48 lies primarily in the western half of Travis County and includes parts of the city of Austin and the Westlake Hills area. A liberal-leaning county where Democrats strongly outnumber Republicans, Obama won comfortably with 53% of the vote in 2008. However, western Travis County is home to one of the larger conservative factions in the area. Like many districts, it was drawn to benefit Republicans, who represented the seat until 2005, when Rep. Howard won a tough special election, part of a string of 6 election victories that earned her two twerms in the Legislature.
Howard is a life-long educator and nurse who grew up in Austin. Her Republican opponent, Dan Neil, is a former All-American lineman and NFL player who hasn’t said much – about anything, at all. He posted a poor showing on his June 30th Finance Report and then created a small stir by being kicked off his sports radio show on 104.9, The Horn, blaming it on Rep. Howard. In fact, the radio station came to Rep. Howard to inform of her the FCC Equal Time Rule. That's about all that's happened in this race, which means -- nothing has happened. Rep. Howard is defining the issues, concentrating on her legislative successes, including legislation she passed requiring the largely right-wing and highly partisan State Board of Education to stream their meetings over the internet, a hot-button issue this cycle.
Why Rep. Donna Howard Will Return Next Year
Rep. Howard has incumbency, popularity, the resources and a well-organized, professional team all on her side. She’s well-tested and versed in campaigning, and Republicans have all but quit running serious races in Travis County.
Ed. note: The following is one of twenty races we are featuring in the Texas Political Report. Annie's List provided research and analysis for this race.
This race is of critical importance this year -- one of the truly contested races. To learn more about the race, I'd recommend regularly following Eye on Williamson, a superb political blog that focuses most of its attention just on Williamson County races.
Williamson County is one of the fastest growing counties in the state, with great public schools, a short commute to Austin and a supply of top-notch tech jobs anchored by Dell's international headquarters in District 52. To that end, Rep. Maldonado, the former President of the Round Rock School Board, has a history of community service that predates her election to the Legislature. And since her election, she has done a lot and she’ll be working to communicate her successes to voters. She’s secured funding for the construction of the Eastern Williamson Co. Higher Education Center, which will house in-district campuses for many of the large state universities and funding for the construction of FM1460, an additional road for congestion that will also service the new Education Center. Tangible, concrete projects like these, and her expertise in education issues, have been Maldanado's focus in office and in her campaign. Gonzales, on the other hand, will do his best to keep these local achievements out of voters minds by nationalizing the issues in a tough year for Democrats.
District 52 is located entirely within Williamson County, include the swiftly developing southern Williamson County cities of Round Rock and Hutto, as well as parts of far northwest Austin along US 183. These areas are rapdily being populated by a more diverse electorate seeking affordable housing that is becoming harder to find in central Austin, and that trend is reflected in the district's politics. HD 52 also includes a slice of Georgetown and rural towns including Hutto, Taylor and Thrall. Traditionally a conservative strong-hold, a Republican had held this seat for 16 consecutive years until Maldonado won in 2008 by a slim margin. Obama lost the district in 2008 with 48.5% of the vote, another indication that the influx of new residents into the district as these suburbs expand is drastically changing the demographics.
Why Rep. Dianal Maldonado Will Return Next Year
Rep. Maldonado is well-liked in her district by those who don’t vote straight ticket Republican and she has a strong team in place. She’s also got the resources to run a tough campaign and the rapidly evolving district demographics point to a slight but steadily uphill trend for the Democrats. Gonzales seems to be relying on the district's past voting history and a tough national climate to bring down Maldonado. If the national climate is too much to overcome, Gonzales could win. If Maldanado and the Democrats can truly break through the noise and communicate the choice in the election to voters, Maldonado will win. This one will go down to the wire.
The race pits the district's former State Representative -- John Mabry -- against its current one, Republican Doc Anderson. Campaign activity has been minimal so far. Mabry appears to be focusing on previous name ID and the scandal of Doc Anderson to carry him over the line. As Elise Hu wrote in her Texas Tribune feature about State House races:
The two-term Central Texas veterinarian beat former state Rep. Mabry in 2004, the first cycle after 2003’s mid-decade redistricting. Mabry’s hoping voters will remember him this time around. Anderson will have to run more aggressively than he has in the past two election cycles to maintain his advantage. Democrats are desperately hoping that they can benefit from the anti-incumbent mood that plagues them elsewhere.
About a month after filing a $58,000 tax lien against state Rep. Charles “Doc” Anderson, R-Waco, for unpaid personal income taxes, the Internal Revenue Service took further action against the veterinarian for failing to pay taxes withheld from employees’ paychecks for the final two quarters of 2008.
The lien was filed at the McLennan County Clerk’s office Jan. 25 and totaled about $11,500. It was placed against the Anderson Veterinary Hospital, the clinic Anderson opened on Valley Mills Drive in 1983.
How Democrats Defeat Anderson in November:
Anderson's tax liens are a decade-long problem, and one highlighted by Mabry when he lost the seat to Anderson in 2004. Mabry now can go back to voters in the district and say, "I told you so -- you can't trust him with your tax dollars when he can't even get his own house in order." However, if there is a stronger field plan or message plan in place, most Waco Democrats appear to be playing it close to the vest. Chet Edwards' race for Congress could cause many Republicans to split tickets in McLennan County and benefit Mabry's opportunity to communicate to those voters in the district. Within the next month it should be clear whether this is a race Democrats have a shot at winning back, or whether it becomes less and less likely of a pick-up opportunity.
Margo has gone 0-for-2 so far in his bid for a spot in the Legislature, but the insurance company CEO — an exceptional fundraiser, with big El Paso backers like Paul Foster and Woody Hunt in his corner — could take what Olsen calls "as much of a Republican district in El Paso as you're going to get.”
The district is the most Democratic seat Republicans are challenging this year, and Rep. Moody is running a much stronger race a second time around. Moody is knocking on 3,000 doors a week in his district, before Labor Day, while Margo is now trying to claim that he is "1/4 Hispanic" -- the first time he's made such a claim in the many times he's run for office in El Paso.
Why Rep. Joe Moody Returns Next Year
Republicans continue to run in the seat because it is the only race for them to seat they could conceivably run for in El Paso -- much like the efforts to unseat Rep. Donna Howard in Austin. Rep. Moody has a strong presence in the district, his name ID is high, and even in this political climate, the Republicans in Austin rarely bring up Margo as a serious challenger. If it were a fresh face in the district, or if Moody had made some terrible votes -- maybe. But neither is true in this race. It is one to watch, but it's not really a district anyone expects to flip this cycle.
