In the Aftermath of the Massachusetts Senate Results

by: Texas Nate

Wed Jan 20, 2010 at 04:03 PM CST

It's clear we haven't been picking the right candidates. The mood of the electorate is angry and frightened. We desperately need candidates that can address voters' very real concerns head on, not endlessly repeat the talking points coming out of Washington, D.C.

In Texas, we've got John Sharp running for U.S. Senate. And despite the set back last night, Sharp's candidacy represents a very real opportunity for Democrats to pick up a seat in Texas.

Matt Glazer, Phillip Martin and Harold Cook have all made excellent posts re-iterating the obvious: Texas ain't Massachusetts.

Here's another angle on how they differ: in Texas we've got good candidates and I'm not just talking about Bill White.

John Sharp Announces Support from Texas Democratic State Senators

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Mon Dec 14, 2009 at 02:30 PM CST

Wendy Davis of Fort Worth
Mario Gallegos, Jr. of Houston
Juan 'Chuy' Hinojosa of McAllen
Eddie Lucio, Jr. of Brownsville
Eliot Shapleigh of El Paso
Carlos Uresti of San Antonio
Leticia Van de Putte of San Antonio
Kirk Watson of Austin
Royce West of Dallas
John Whitmire of Houston
Judith Zaffirini of Laredo

Rodney Ellis of Houston couldn't be reached.

Of course, at this point, is there news here? Even when Bill White was contesting John Sharp for the nonexistent U.S. Senate primary, the back and forth was all a bit silly because I've long held the belief that Hutschison was never going to resign, which so far has kept becoming more and more true. And while the Sharp campaign I'm sure was thrilled (along with many Democratic primary voters) that Bill White was moving to the Governor's race, what exactly has it won?

The point of releasing a slate of the state senators' endorsements is to position yourself against any other latecomers that might want to get into your race. But if in the end, there isn't a race to get into, what does it matter? If there is no resignation and there is no race, then we're assuming that Sharp is running for 3 years until 2012, and that all of these endorsements are going to stick all the way until then, and that no one else is going to get in and change the calculus for the endorsers?

I don't dislike Sharp (I actually like his brand of old school politics) and if helps them to have my personal endorsement, sure, fine, you've got it. But that's the point- what difference does it make if you know it's being given in a nonexistent primary for a nonexistent election? Other than policy releases or attacks on other potential candidates for the nonexistent election, I'm not sure Burnt Orange Report really has a place to write about any more endorsements on the Democratic side of this "race" until there is a reasonable expectation there is a race once more.

Am I wrong? I'd be more than interested in hearing from readers on this one in the comments.

TX-Sen: John Sharp Garners First College Democrats Endorsement

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Nov 17, 2009 at 08:00 PM CST

"John Sharp's campaign is all about us," said Laura Barry, president of the Stephen F. Austin Young Democrats in Nacogdoches.

"John has our pledge to work just as hard as he is to give Texas a fresh voice in Washington," added Ms. Barry, who also serves as the political director of the Texas College Democrats, which has 34 chapters across the state. "He has the vision to lead us into the future - and we will be there with him every step of the way."

It is reasonable to note the timing of the endorsement as the University Democrats in Austin are set to vote on endorsing in the U.S. Senate primary as it stands this Thursday, a day after their major BLUEPrint for Texas fundraiser. The UT-Austin University Democrats were the 2008 College Democrats of American "Chapter of the Year" and are the largest College Democrats chapter in the nation with the activism to match.

+ DISTRIBUTING 42,000+ voter registration cards in key neighborhoods!

+ REGISTERING 11,565 students to vote TOTAL (Including 5,700+ in one day)!

+ KNOCKING on 40,000+ doors statewide for key candidates!

+ CALLING 12,233 voters on behalf of Texas Democrats!

+ MOBILIZING 18,000 students to early vote (a UT-Austin record)!

We'll be reporting Thursday night whether John Sharp will pick up a second College Democrats chapter's endorsement, or if Bill White will overpower Sharp's endorsement and earn the support of the arguably the biggest youth endorsement possible in Texas.

Update: It appears from a comment by one of the University Democrats that the club has cancelled the U.S. Senate endorsement meeting. No work yet on the reason, though it's reasonable to assume the recent pronouncements by Sen. Hutchison on her new belayed resignation timeline have cancelled the urgency to hold an endorsement meeting before the students are gone on break until late January. I expect it will be moved to the regular joint pre-primary endorsement meeting with the Central Austin Democrats held annually after the filing period.  

The Future of Texas Politics: The Past

by: MattTX

Thu Nov 12, 2009 at 10:49 AM CST

Texas is the second largest state in the Union, after California.

Texas has been, for several years, a majority minority state.

Texas has 34 electoral votes, which will increase to 37 or 38 for the 2012 Presidential Election.

On the Presidential level, Texas has been one of the primary pieces (if not the primary piece) in the Republican Electoral College puzzle for years.

On the State level, Texas has not voted for a Democratic candidate for anything Statewide since 1994.

Yet if we can extrapolate from current trends, at some point in next decade Texas will become a bona fide purple swing state. Then it will become a blue state. Then it will become a linchpin of the Democratic electoral coalition, and as Texas flips, modern Conservative Republicanism as we know it will face mortal danger.

TX-Sen: Rumors of Bill White Switching Races Continue

by: David Mauro

Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 05:13 PM CST

The rumors about Houston Mayor and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Bill White switching to the Governor's race circulated again this week, and the White camapign denied them (again). With Kay Bailey Hutchison appearing to once again be waffling on her decision to resign from the Senate, some have thought White would rather jump to the governor's race than wait until 2012. 

Ross Ramsay's Texas Tribune article identified John Sharp and Rick Perry as the two pushing the rumor, which if true certainly does not put Sharp, the former Texas Comptroller and current Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, in very good company.

BOR's Todd Hill wrote in August that Texas Democrats should "get off Bill White's back and get on John Sharp's" when it came to deciding if one of the two leading Democrats would switch races.

I think Sharp is better qualified, and in a better position politically, to change the dynamics completely of the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

Sharp's campaign doesn't appear to be raising the funds necessary, outside of personal loans, to remain competitive in a potential U.S. senate race.  I suspect that is because those donors who thought Mayor White would run for governor versus the United States Senate suddenly found themselves choosing between Sharp and White.  Many people, including myself, believe that Bill White is the brightest star we have in the Democratic Party, and donors and grassroots supporters do too.  Those who committed to Sharp assuming White would run for governor suddenly switched allegiances upon his announcement that he would run in an eventual special election senate race.  White's fundraising numbers prove that is the case.  That doesn't mean those donors don't support Sharp, they just don't support him in a head to head race with Bill White.

In this race without an election date, not much has changed since August, although White's financial advantage over Sharp has only widened.

Sharp came extremely close to defeating Rick Perry in 1998. Since then Perry has gone form being George W. Bush's Lt. Gov. to becoming one of the most unpopular governors in Texas history. Despite Perry and Sharp's past collaboration on school finance, if he decided to switch to the governor's race, he would probably be the favorite versus Perry. Democrats would have a strong candidate for governor and Bill White's huge fundraising lead would stay in the Senate race, where he gives Texas Democrats their best chance to win a Senate seat in years.

TX-Sen: John Sharp Loans Campaign More Than $500K of $600K Total Raised

by: David Mauro

Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 04:57 PM CDT

	Other Peoples' Money	Loans from Candidate	Contributions from Candidate	Total Raised	Expenditures
White:	$1,116,813	$0	$414,399	$1,549,941	$703,108
Sharp:	$107,204	$504,514	$0	$615,210	$170,190

In actual contributions from campaign supporters, White outraised Sharp by over 10 to 1.  

Both candidates contributed to their own campaigns: Sharp loaned himself money, while White contributed the $414,399 as part of a donor-matching program during the last three days week of the quarter. White and his wife Andrea matched donations that included $200,000 in online giving through ActBlue and the campaign website. That $200,000 raised online by White in the last three days week of the quarter is more than Sharp raised from all of his donors throughout the three months of the quarter.  

It's also interesting to compare these numbers to the candidates' expenses. White is running a full state-wide campaign with organizers and physical office space in most regions of the state. However, he more than raised enough to cover his significant expenses. On the other hand, the Sharp campaign spent more money in Q3 than it took in from outside contributions.

With the DSCC openly encouraging White, Sharp may begin to feel more pressure to switch to another race where Democrats desperately need a strong candidate.  Without the FEC limits of $2400 per person, Sharp would likely find it easier to raise money closer to the levels he did as Comptroller. Of course, Sharp has given no public indication that he is considering switching races.

Bill White, Democrats "Disappoint" Republicans in Potential U.S. Senate Race

by: Matt Glazer

Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 11:02 AM CDT

White's continued fundraising success has some Republican's calling White "a serious challenge for Republicans".

Rick vs. Kay wrote yesterday about the Republican fundraising dilemma.

Some of these numbers are actually somewhat disappointing. Republicans are going to have to settle behind a candidate, because none of those totals will measure up to Bill White's total. That guy looks stout.

[...]

Either way Republicans are vulnerable if Kay resigns. I still think one of them could emerge and defeat Bill White easily if people really get behind the GOP nominee, but right now it makes me nervous.

This same realization has been covered in The Hill's Briefing Room.  The Hill observes that Democrats John Sharp and Bill White have self-fundend and raised an astounding $10 million.  On the other side of the aisle, Republicans are collectively struggling to raise even $1 million.

A lack of a consensus candidate on the Republican side has created an opening for Democrats to win a statewide race. The only question now for the field will be when the election will happen.

Kay Bailey Hutchison told a Republican/conservative radio host Tuesday she plans to retire from the Senate, but the time frame is still in the air.  

According to the the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

"I am going to leave," Hutchison told Davis on WBAP/820 AM. "I think it's important that I do everything I can when there are such huge issues and I haven't been able to set that deadline which I know is something a lot of people are looking at to determine what other possibilities there might be."

With the question of "when" left to be answered, at least we know Democrats can be competitive statewide and specifically we can send a Democrat to Washington in a special or general election.

TX-Sen: Bill White's Fundraising Numbers Have the NRSC on the Attack

by: David Mauro

Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 01:20 AM CDT

After Houston Mayor Bill White's campaign reported $1.5 million raised this quarter, leaving them with $4.18 million on hand, national observers took notice. Politico's Josh Kraushaar wrote that White had "posted one of the strongest fundraising totals for any Senate candidate this quarter."

Then it was the NRSC, led by Texas' own John Cornyn, who read the good news about White's fundraising and decided to go on the attack. From Whitless Humorings:

“Bill White’s fundraising diligence is exceeded only by his negligence to his current position. The city of Houston is facing a $50 million budget shortfall, Houstonians are facing potential tax hikes, city employees are facing possible layoffs, and yet, Bill White is traveling around the country raising money while collecting a paycheck from Houston taxpayers. Instead of spending his time worrying about a job promotion Bill White ought to focus on the job he was elected to do.” – Brian Walsh, NRSC Spokesman

The White campaign issued this response to the NRSC's statement on Wednesday, via the Mayor's Facebook page.

"Houston has run operating surpluses for most my time as Mayor, while we cut tax rates. Meanwhile DC borrowed trillions to pay operating expenses even before the recession. Yet some party hack in DC criticizes me for raising money for my Senate race, ...saying I neglected our City's finances? (See the link below.) They don't get it. Many fiscally conservative Republicans serve with me on City Council and they deserve credit--as do all Council members--for working as a non-partisan team to make sure that Houston is in the best financial condition of any of the nation's big cities.We aren't raising taxes or laying off employees. When is the last time they ran a surplus in DC? 1998-2000? Is it possible that in DC someone is looking at a poll and is worried?"

National Republicans are worried about holding on to this senate seat, and for good reason. When was the last time the NRSC attacked a Democratic candidate for a seat that was not even open yet? 

Bill White Raises Over $1.5 Million in Q3

by: Katherine Haenschen

Wed Oct 14, 2009 at 01:29 PM CDT

The Bill White for Senate campaign announced today that the Houston Mayor raised over $1.5 million in the quarter ending September 30th. Campaign spokesperson Katy Bacon stated to BOR that campaign cash on hand now totals $4.18 million. Overall, White has now raised over $6 million total from more than 5000 donors throughout his campaign.

The third-quarter report also includes 2000 first-time donors to the campaign. White is running for the as-yet-undeclared special election to fill Sen. Hutchison's seat, should she resign to campaign full-time for Governor.

From the official campaign release:

As of the second quarter filing period, the Bill White for Texas team had raised more dollars from more people than all other Senate candidates combined. With nearly 2000 first-time contributors, the third quarter filing period attracted significantly more new contributors to the campaign than any other quarter.

"With each report, it becomes increasingly clear that Texans across the state trust Bill White to be their voice in the U.S. Senate," said Campaign Finance Chair Scott Atlas. "Bill is the right leader to move our state forward and protect the future of our children and grandchildren."

Until the release of reports from John Sharp and the miasma of Republicans running for the seat, we don't know yet if White has maintained his lead on all announced candidates combined. Reports are due tomorrow.

As BOR previously reported, one of those donations came from Warren Buffet, famous investor, philanthropist, and Democratic supporter. Buffet, widely considered to be one of the shrewdest investors in American history, clearly thinks Bill White is a strong bet for Texas and for the US Senate.

White also raised approximately $200,000 online in the last weeks of the quarter, spurred on by a dollar-for-dollar match from the Mayor himself.

Update by KT

Here are some of the numbers for the quarter and to day in table form for easy viewing.

US Senate Endorsements as we Wait for Fundraising Numbers

by: Michael Hurta

Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 05:50 PM CDT

Van de Putte is a legislator and politician that we all respect here at the Burnt Orange Report, and she is someone we all wanted to run for a statewide office.  That said, I take her opinion on John Sharp seriously as a reason not to rule him out, despite KT's convincing Special Comment,

That said, the Van de Putte announcement elicited a few reactions for me:

• I hope Senator Van de Putte is thinking purely about policy ability rather than campaign ability.  I think in policy, one can easily flip a coin between Sharp and White as to which man is distinctively better.  On campaign ability, though?
• Is John Sharp trying to cover for another bad fundraising quarter?  We will see in due time, but it's hard to imagine a getter reason for the announcement's timing.
• The two thoughts above, though, assume John Sharp's fundraising successes will continue the negative trend that we saw the last quarter.  Instead, John Sharp could be leading us to a surprise with a strong fundraising quarter.  I doubt this, but if he reports high numbers, he could make a solid case for momentum.

Meanwhile, Bill White isn't leaving us waiting for his money reports as if that's all he has going for him.  Besides the revelation that Warren Buffett is among his donors, he recently announced the endorsement of nine members from the Texas Legislative Black Caucus.  The group includes Alma Allen, Garnet Coleman, Dawnna Dukes, Harold Dutton, Helen Giddings, Barbara Mallory Caraway, Ruth McClendon, Sylvester Turner, and Marc Veasey.

It was useful to group them together so White could use the Black Caucus' name in a press release, but observers should note that most of this is not new.  His page of endorsements from Texas representatives listed most of these names before the announcement was made earlier today.  In reality, it seems only Representatives [Turner,] Dutton and Giddings can be counted as "new" endorsements.

Either way, both Bill White and John Sharp have added names to their endorsement lists.  As lackluster as Sharp's campaign has looked, he has faired alright in gaining names for that list.  Unfortunately, endorsements are not all that matters.

We will learn more when we see fundraising numbers.

Update: I messed up with some of the Bill White endorsements.  Chris Turner had previously endorsed White, but Sylvester Turner had not.  So add Sly Turner as a new endorsement.  Bill White spokesperson Katy Bacon also pointed out to me that the new endorsements mean that Bill White has received endorsements from a majority of Democratic State Representatives.  That in itself is an accomplishment.