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Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 01:54 PM CDT
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 The following poll results were commissioned by Burnt Orange Report and conducted by IVR Polls as explained here.
Conducted 3/22/07 :: 502 past Dem primary voters - MOE = 4.4%
Notes from the pollster: For the time being, these polls will assume the primary will not move to February. As such, we will poll past primary voters. We'll change the model if the primary move to February becomes more certain.
Timing on the poll was interesting for two reasons. First, it was done the day of Elizabeth Edwards' news...the attention may have given John Edward's numbers a boost.
::March Poll Results::
|
1st Choice |
1st+2nd Choice |
| Hillary Clinton |
33% |
51% |
| John Edwards |
19% |
26% |
| Barack Obama |
18% |
26% |
| Bill Richardson |
6% |
11% |
| Dennis Kucinich |
2% |
3% |
| Joe Biden |
2% |
4% |
| Chris Dodd |
0% |
1% |
| Mike Gravel |
0% |
0% |
| Undecided |
20% |
55% |
::March Results Weighted by Traditional Regional Turnout::
|
Weighted |
| Hillary Clinton |
35% |
| John Edwards |
20% |
| Barack Obama |
15% |
| Bill Richardson |
8% |
| Dennis Kucinich |
4% |
| Joe Biden |
3% |
| Chris Dodd |
2% |
| Mike Gravel |
0% |
| Undecided |
22% |
Notes from the pollster: Turnout is not even across the state. South Texas is strongly Democratic, and the winner of the Democratic primary for a local race has traditionally not faced a strong Republican opponent in November. The primary election is the race. Turnout is always heavy, while turnout in major metro areas is weak. In 2004, Dallas County had 4.5% turnout while Hidalgo County had 15.6% turnout.
Obama did well in most of the metro areas, leading in Dallas and Austin, and picking up mid 20's in Houston and San Antonio. But outside of the cities, he did not do well at all. In South Texas, he was a distant fourth behind Clinton, Edwards and Richardson. In West Texas, he tied with Kucinich.
If you weight his results with the general population, Obama is nipping at Clinton's heels. If you weight according to historical turnout, Clinton has a comfortable lead, with Edwards leading Obama by four points.
::Weighted Regional Breakdowns (higher MoE)::
|
|
Clinton |
Obama |
Edwards |
Richardson |
Kucinich |
Biden |
Dodd |
Undecided |
| San Antonio |
|
40% |
20% |
18% |
8% |
- |
5% |
- |
10% |
| DFW |
|
30% |
27% |
17% |
7% |
- |
- |
- |
19% |
| Houston |
|
42% |
25% |
12% |
7% |
3% |
2% |
- |
9% |
| East |
|
28% |
10% |
27% |
5% |
1% |
2% |
- |
27% |
| West |
|
29% |
6% |
20% |
12% |
6% |
- |
2% |
25% |
| South |
|
50% |
6% |
11% |
10% |
4% |
2% |
- |
17% |
| Central |
|
21% |
24% |
24% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
- |
23% |
| Statewide |
|
35.3% |
15.3% |
19.5% |
8.3% |
3.8% |
3.2% |
1.9% |
21.5% |
Note: Bolded numbers indicate a candidate's strongest performance by region. |
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| Poll |
| Who would you vote for in the Democratic Primary for Ag Commission? |
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Results
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