| To recap, here are the other two post-debate polls:
Wall Street Journal (an internet based poll which uses a methodology that may oversample younger, pro-technology, well-educated voters, but which weighted to match the race, age, economic profile, and party affiliation splits corresponding with the splits from the latest exit polls from comparable elections in Texas):
37.5% - Rick Perry
26.2% - Chris Bell
13.2% - Richard Friedman
13.0% - Carole Strayhorn
Texans for Insurance Reform (a land-line telephone based poll which uses a methodology that may undersample younger, pro-technology, economically disadvantaged voters, and which is weighted to match the polling population to the assumption that 40% of the voters will be Republicans, 30% will be Democrats, and 30% will be independents - this poll is conducted by an independent polling firm and financed by Strayhorn supporters):
34.4% - Rick Perry
18.7% - Chris Bell
18.5% - Carole Strayhorn
_8.6% - Richard Friedman
What do these three different polls with three different methodologies tell us?
Perry is inescapably trapped near mid-30%, and he is vulnerable, and this fact is apparent no matter how you collect the data.
Bell is the lone break-away challenger and has strong momentum as confirmed by all three polls and this status is also born out regardless of the data collection method.
Strayhorn seems destined for a third place finish, and Friedman is flushing out as every election anlaysit has predicted since day one.
The question which will determine the outcome of the election is this: As it becomes increasingly inescapable that only Bell has any hope of beating Perry, will the supporters of Strayhorn and Friedman spite-vote or will they flock to Bell and effect a change in their government.
Specifically, do the anti-TTC people (whose blog is underwritten by Strayhorn) seek to elect Bell as the only challenger who can stop the TTC or will they go down with the Strayhorn ship and acquiesce to Perry's TTC?
Likewise, do the Friedman supporters who seek to "make a statement" want that statement to be "we punk’d the vote in Texas" or "we put an end to one-party rule in Texas."
Nothing less important than your future and the future of our state depends on the answers to these questions. |
