Burnt Orange Report

October 05, 2004

Post Debate Thread

By Byron LaMasters

[2:14: Calling it a night here. Be sure to check the veep debate thread below if you missed it, and while you're at it, check out the DNC video.]

12:10: Politicalwire calls it for Edwards, as does Andrew Sullivan, Kevin Drum and Pandagon (slightly). I'm still calling it a draw, although I'd like to see more polls on it. I have a sneaking suspicion that Edwards may have had a positive impact with women (the CNN undecided group seemed to like him, and anecdotal evidence that I've seen here and there tonight seems to suggest that this might be the case).

11:03: Here's a line for Wonkette or Boi From Troy: "I love it when you tease me like that, Jeff" - Aaron Brown on Jeff Greenfield's headline on Newsnight.

10:52: Keith Olberman drew the opposite conclusion that I did. He called it a draw (as do I), but seems to give Edwards points on foreign policy and Cheney points on domestic issues. Huh?

10:47: Anyone have any snap poll numbers?

CBS gives Edwards the edge:

A CBS News poll of 169 uncommitted voters found that 41 percent said Edwards won the debate, versus 29 percent who said Cheney won. Thirty percent said it was a tie.

Of course, the wingnuts will dismiss it as liberal BS. I mean, obviously, Dan Rather's behind it...

Update: Got some more:

ABC: Cheney 43, Edwards 35, Tie 19% among debate viewers.
Voter Preference (before): Bush/Cheney 51, Kerry/Edwards 48%.
Voter Preference (after): Bush/Cheney 50, Kerry/Edwards 49%.
Internals of those polled: Republicans 38%, Democrats 31%, Independents 27% (509 registered voters, 4.5% margin of error).

So Cheney won by 8%, but the poll had a 7% GOP edge. So, basically a draw in that poll.

10:40: Cheney Lied. Cheney recognized Edwards at a prayer breakfast, and Edwards escorted Sen. Dole (R-NC) when she was sworn in by Dick Cheney. I guess Cheney is either very antisocial or just has a bad memory.

10:38: Another live poll list on Atrios. Vote for John-John.

10:26: Sen Leahy (D-VT): "The Vice President comes up every Tuesday, but he only talks to Republicans" - on why Cheney had never met John Edwards until tonight.

10:00: Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and girls, its Jon Stewart time!!

Remember to vote in the Houston Chronicle poll. That's the one poll Bush won last Thursday.

9:56: Ok folks. This dkos diary has all the polls we should vote in. You know the drill. Vote for John-John.

9:54: Yay. Women like Edwards. 9/10 in CNN's focus group when he talked about outsourcing.

9:47: Atrios has the post-debate GOP conference call information up, but it looks like the GOP learned from last week. My friend just called and the operator asked for his name. I guess the BC04 team decided to give them a list of the people invited. It might have just worked to make up a name, but we were too slow.

Posted by Byron LaMasters at October 5, 2004 09:48 PM | TrackBack

Comments

"CBS gives Edwards the edge"

Once again, the news media, including BOR, needs to get their damn act together and stop analyzing poll results without margin of error! A sampling of 169 voters has a margin of error of about +/-8%. In other words, there's no point in comparing performance with such a small population sample, because it depends too much on which particular 169 people you survey. Responsible media coverage please.

Posted by: chrisken at October 5, 2004 11:37 PM

I'm not vouching for its validity or not. I was hoping to see several snap polls to gauge a general trend, but I haven't seen anything else so far.

Posted by: Byron L at October 5, 2004 11:59 PM

The VP debate was a draw. So the real story about the VP debate is not the comparison between Edwards and Cheney, it is the comparison between Bush and Cheney. Cheney makes a stronger case for the Bush administration than George Bush does, and that says little about overall strength of the Republican ticket with George Bush as president.

Posted by: Justin at October 6, 2004 01:00 AM

Chrisken --

The spread is 13 points. The great probability is that Edwards has a significant advantage in this.

Watching the debate, I have to say in many ways it was a draw; at least in the sense that Cheney actually is an effective advocate, whereas Bush is not. So at least it was competitive.

Edwards on style.

Posted by: Jim D at October 6, 2004 02:56 AM

Cheney won on style and on substance last night. He made Edwards look too young and inexperienced by comparison. But who really cares about the VP debate? Even the Bentsen slam of Quayle just made people wish Bentsen was the nominee instead of Dukakis.

BTW, the ABC snap poll, with over 500 respondents, had a Cheney win by 43-35. Note how much of the liberal side is calling this a draw, just like the conservative side said last week.

Posted by: TM at October 6, 2004 08:20 AM

1) Is it too late for both sides to flip the nominees?

2) Did anyone else know that if children don't have health insurance they will get AIDS?

Posted by: homer at October 6, 2004 09:38 AM

TM - Andrew Sullivan and Political Wire aren't liberals. Both called it for Edwards. Basically, only one thing had to happen last night. Edwards had to prove that he had enough experience and grasp of the issues to become president if necessary. He did that. Cheney was an effective advocate for Bush on terrorism/Iraq, and Edwards was effective on domestic issues.

As for the 8 point spread - I'm not worried. It had a 7 point GOP participation edge. So, weighted for that, it's a tie.

Posted by: Byron L at October 6, 2004 11:02 AM

News, Politics, and Fun From Deep in the Heart of Texas

October 05, 2004

Post Debate Thread

By Byron LaMasters